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So what is it that ails the Cardinals in the 2023 season? Is it the hitting or the pitching? Honestly, it’s both. In this article, I will examine the teams efficiency in scoring runs and preventing runs.
Much has been made about the St Louis Cardinals pitching staff. The narrative has been that the Cardinals are losing because they do not pitch well enough. My contention is that the offense harms them more than the pitching. That’s not to say the pitching is good of course.
My premise is this. The mean for runs scored by per team per game is close to 4.5. So, if the offense scores 5 or more, they have given themselves a good chance to win by exceedingthe mean. If they surrender 4 or less, they have given themselves a good chance to win by staying under the mean. It’s not a perfect science, but the bottom line is that performing better than n the mean in either category is the goal in any given game. As you’ll see, the team has a winning record in games where they achieve one of these goals.
Runs scored: In 25 out of 69 games, the Cardinals have scored 5 or more runs. In only 36.2% of the games have the Cardinals exceeded the mean in runs scored.
Runs allowed: In 31 out of 69 games the Cardinals have surrendered 4 runs or fewer. In 44.9% of the games, the Cardinals exceeded the mean in runs prevention.
Runs scoring is at 36.2% and run prevention is at 44.9%. It’s no wonder that their winning percentage is right in between those numbers at 39.1%.
When the Cardinals score 5 or more runs, they are 18-7. When the surrender 4 or less, they are 18-12. They are not capitalizing on good run prevention games at same rate they are good run scoring games.
When the Cardinals score under the mean (4 or less), they are 9 – 35. When the Cardinals surrender more than the mean (5 runs or less), they are 9 – 30.
To me, this tells me that run scoring is a more pressing need at this point in the season. They have to find a way to generate more offense. However, run prevention still must be addressed.
Thanks for reading .
