2020 finish: 34-26, 1st in NL Central, lost 0-2 in NLWC to the Marlins.
Key additions: Jake Arrieta (FA PHI), Joc Pederson (FA LAD), Austin Romine (FA DET), Brandon Workman (FA PHI), Jake Marisnick (FA NYM), Zach Davies (trade SD), Trevor Williams (FA PIT)
Key subtractions: Yu Darvish (trade SD), Victor Caratini (trade SD), Jon Lester (FA WAS), Kyle Schwarber (FA WAS), Jose Quintana (FA LAA), Albert Almora (FA NYM), Jeremy Jeffress (FA)
They suck…That’s it…That’s the preview
Okay, I’ll get serious. Last year, the Cubs won the division on the heels of magnificent pitching from Yu Darvish which resulted in him being runner up in the Cy Young race. So what do the Cubs do? Trade him away! Along with Darvish, they traded backup catcher Victor Caratini to the Padres. There are many questions surrounding the Cubs entering the season. Will this be the final season of their core 4 of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, & Contreras? All but Contreras are free agents after the season. Bryant and Contreras were rumored to be traded in the offseason but the Cubs decided to keep them. Will the Cubs have an early hibernation for 2021?
On paper, the Cubs should have one of the best offenses in the game. However, as we know, games aren’t won on paper. Entering 2020, there were questions whether or not Anthony Rizzo, a cancer survivor, would play. He wound up playing all but 2 games smacking 11 home runs, but only hitting .222. Rizzo is entering his 11th year on the team and is a walk year for him. Especially if he doesn’t get an extension, he will want to have a good year this year so he can get maybe one more really good contract. Javy Baez finished 2nd in MVP in 2018 but he had regressed the past couple seasons. I think his 2018 season will wind up being an outlier. That’s not to say he’s isn’t a good player because he absolutely is, however, I think many people expect him to get back to those 2018 stats. In reality, instead of the 34 home runs, 111 RBI, he’s more of the 20+ home runs, 75-80 RBI guy. Something that could be concerning for Baez is his increased strikeout rate. He finished 7th most strikeouts in MLB. Another infielder that has really regressed is former MVP Kris Bryant. When Bryant won MVP in 2016, many people thought, myself included, he would be an MVP candidate year in and year out. That just hasn’t been the case. He has dealt with some injuries which could be a factor in his reduced production. He hasn’t exactly hitting the cover off the ball this spring too so maybe this regression continues into the 2021 season. One does have to wonder how big of a contract he will get next year if he continues this. Willson Contreras has been one of the more consistent hitters for the Cubs in recent years. At the same time though, he has been hampered by injuries as well. In 2019, he hit a career high 24 home runs, yet only played 105 games. I think he can consistently be around that 20-25 home run mark if he can stay healthy. Manager David Ross jokingly said that he wants to put Contreras in bubble wrap. Maybe that will help him stay healthy. Over at 2B you’ll have Nico Hoerner. Hoerner doesn’t provide a lot of pop but he can give you a guy that can get on base.Â
The outfield will look slightly different, although if you looked at stats, you would think they are bringing back the exact same guys. That’s because Joc Pederson has eerily similar numbers as Kyle Schwarber.Â
Schwarber’s career slash line: .230/.336/.480 Schwarber’s 2020: .188/.308/.393.Â
Pederson’s career slash line: .230/.336/.470 Pederson’s 2020: .190/.285/.397
Pretty crazy how similar they are. Plus both are below average defenders in left field. Joc is right now playing out of his mind this spring. .406 with 5 home runs. If he can continue this type of production, the Cubs may have a steal of the offseason. In center, I feel Ian Happ could have a breakout season. He’s improved slightly each season, so my gut says this is a breakout year for him. In 2020, he earned himself MVP consideration, finishing 18th after slashing .258/.361/.505 smashing 12 home runs and a career high OPS+ of 131. That could be a jumpstart to what could be a big year for Happ. In right field, Jason Heyward returns with his extraordinary defense. He hasn’t lived up to that mega contract he earned from the Cubs but he has been a little better in recent seasons. He’s now entering his 12th year, 6th the Cubs. Crazy this is already year 6 for him in Chicago. Now that he’s 31, he no longer has that potential to be great, this is just who he is now.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Ian Happ CF
Willson Contreras C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Kris Bryant 3B
Joc Pederson LF
Javy Baez SS
Jason Heyward RF
Nico Hoerner 2B
Pitching is what is going to make or break the Cubs. Kyle Hendricks should put up Cy Young numbers, however after him, it’s questionable. They bring back Jake Arrieta because they need someone to throw out there. Arrieta, since leaving Chicago, he has progressively gotten worse. Going from a 3.53 ERA in his final Cub season to a 5.08 ERA last year with the Phillies. His K rate has dropped steadily during that time as well from 8.7 to 6.5. Zach Davies was brought over from the Padres in the Yu Darvish deal. Davies returns to the NL Central (he spent 5 years with the Brewers) after a single season with the Padres. It was a career year in San Diego for him but numbers seem to suggest that he comes back to his 3.75+ERA rather than his sub-2. Trevor Williams really struggled the past 2 seasons so it only seems right for the Cubs to bring him in to start. Don’t expect much from him. Then you have Alec Mills. Mills threw a no-hitter in 2020, which is the 16th in Cubs history and first since Jake Arrieta in 2016. That no hitter was really the highlight of his 2020 season.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Kyle Hendricks
Jake Arrieta
Zach Davies
Trevor Williams
Alec Mills
Craig Kimbrel – closer
Prospects you should know
Brailyn Marquez – got a taste at the tail end of the season last year. Big fastball. Could be a front of the rotation starter or go to bullpen guy.
Brennan Davis – plus bat and speed with 30/30 potential.
Cristian Hernandez – Only 17 years old so he won’t be ready any time soon but this kid could be a big time producer.Â
Worst case scenario – The more likely of the two, they finish 4th, pitching gets them nowhere, and their core four continue to regress.Â
Best case scenario – Could they win back to back division titles? It’s not entirely out of the question, but they need their pitching to step it up.
My prediction: 3rd in NL Central
