2020 finish: 33-27, 2nd in ALEast, lost 2-3 in ALDS to the Rays
Key additions: DJ LeMahieu (re-signed), Brett Gardner (re-signed), Corey Kluber (FA TEX), Darren O’Day (FA ATL), Jay Bruce (FA PHI), Jameson Taillon (trade PIT)
Key subtractions: James Paxton (FA SEA), Masahiro Tanaka (FA Japan), JA Happ (MIN), Adam Ottavino (trade BOS)
Year after year, the Yankees have championship aspirations. It seems like year after year, they keep falling short. They have not been to the World Series since they won in 2009. As a matter of fact, Since the Yankees 1st title, the 2010s were the first decade they did not make a World Series appearance. They think that can change this year. They made some big moves by re-signing DJ LeMahieu to a 6 year deal, re-signed Yankee-lifer Brett Gardner. They also signed Corey Kluber, who if healthy, will provide a big boost to the rotation. They also made a big trade with the Pirates by acquiring Jameson Taillon. Tailoon, a young pitcher in his own right, has been recovering from Tommy John but has looked very sharp this spring. Will the Yankees return as the Evil Empire?
One of the big reasons why the Yankees did well last year was from their big bopper of a 1B, Luke Voit. Voit earned MVP consideration finishing 9th. In 2019, he had 21 home runs. In last year’s shortened season? 22! He had more home runs in 56 games than he did in 118! That’s insane! That led the league. If you extrapolate it out to a full 162 game season, that’s 59 home runs! 40 home runs can’t be ruled out. LeMahieu returns to man 2B. LeMahieu was one of the best all around players in 2020, winning the batting title (.364), on-base percentage (.421), OPS (1.011), and OPS+ (177) and finishing 3rd in MVP. He will likely be near the top of the MVP list once again in 2021. Gleyber Torres was coming off a strong 2019 campaign and the club hoped he would carry that into 2020 with a sky high limit. That wasn’t the case. His average dropped 30 points but he did improve his on-base percentage. His OPS+ shows that he was nearly an average player offensively last season and his WAR shows that he was nearly a replacement level player. Some people are down on him this season in that he may not be the type of player that many people were expecting him to be after that 2019 season, but I think he can bounce right back. 2020 was a challenge for everyone with all the Covid protocols and not having in game video available in the dugout. When Gio Urshela was coming up in the Indians farm system, he was mainly known as a defense first guy. Ever since coming over to the Yankees, he’s been able to unlock his hitting capabilities and an on base machine. I don’t see any reason why he can’t continue that this season. He’s been struggling this spring and that could be due to his offseason elbow surgery. He has looked healthy though. He has actually worked out a little at short too.
In the outfield, Aaron Judge leads the way, provided he can stay on the field. It seems that he has some sort of injury each season. 2020 was no different as he dealt with a rib injury early in spring training, but luckily that healed during the shut down. However, during the season, he suffered a calf strain. While rehabbing that injury, he re-aggravated it, which kept him out for longer. When healthy, Judge is a beast. That really seems to be his main issue. People have actually questioned whether his 6’7”, 280 pound frame is actually too big for baseball. They have asked the same questions about Giancarlo Stanton, another one that has dealt with his fair share of injuries throughout his career. Stanton will spend most of the time as the team’s DH. Entering his 4th season with the Yankees, he has only played 1 full season healthy, playing 158 games in his first Yankee season. The past two seasons he has played a combined 41 games. Many Yankee fans are growing frustrated with Stanton and his inability to stay on the field. He’s another one that if healthy, 40 home runs isn’t out of the question. However, being healthy is a huge question mark. Aaron Hicks will be back in center. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019, he returned in 2020. His name actually came up in trade talks as the Yankees were considering cutting some salary. However, reports came out that he still didn’t feel 100% recovered, so that essentially made him untradeable. So he is back in the Bronx. If he proves healthy, I wonder if they would consider trading him during the season. He hasn’t been all that spectacular this spring, but he will be serviceable. Red Thunder, Clint Frazier is finally getting a chance to play every day and should get the starting nod in left field. He’s hitting nearly .300 this spring and should provide for a good source of power this season. In only 39 games, he was able to hit 8 home runs.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
DJ LeMahieu 2B
Aaron Judge RF
Aaron Hicks CF
Giancarlo Stanton DH
Luke Voit 1B
Gleyber Torres SS
Gary Sanchez C
Clint Frazier LF
Gio Urshela 3B
Health of the Yankee lineup is one of the biggest issues that could creep up to hurt them, the same could be said about the rotation. Gerrit Cole was masterful in his Yankee debut season going 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA, 94 Ks with only 17 walks in 73 innings which earned him 4th in the Cy Young voting. His K rate dropped a bit but it was still elite. He will be back in the Cy Young conversation this season. However, after him it becomes a little more questionable. The Yankees acquired Jameson Taillon knowing he’s coming off of Tommy John Surgery, but he has shined so far in the spring not allowing a run in 5.2 innings and striking out 9. Another pitcher coming off injury is Corey Kluber. The past few seasons he’s been hampered by injuries. He too has looked solid, though not as good as Taillon. If they can prove to be healthy all season, that will provide a huge boost for their rotation. Now for the back end, that’s where things get really questionable. Can Jordan Montgomery be a full time starter and give solid numbers? That was the case his rookie season in 2017, however he was less than spectacular last year with an over 5 ERA and a sub 90 ERA+. Then you have Domingo German. German is coming off a season long suspension after a domestic dispute. He was masterful in 2019 and has shown no signs of slowing this spring. One guy that could make a difference is Luis Severino. He’s recovering from Tommy John surgery but should return later this season. It could even be sooner than expected. While he hasn’t appeared in any spring training games, he has shown great results in his workouts. His return would likely mean Montgomery returns to the bullpen.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Gerrit Cole
Jameson Taillon
Corey Kluber
Domingo German
Jordan Montgomery (until Severino returns)
Aroldis Chapman – closer
Prospects you should know
Jasson Dominguez – kid is only 18 and already being compared to Mike Trout. That’s really all you need to know. He’s legit.
Deivi Garcia – debuted last season,but will likely start the season in the minors. Could be the “next man up” if an injury to a starter pops up.
Worst case scenario – as with any team, injuries can break your season. I feel like that’s more the case with the Yankees with injury questions surrounding Judge, Stanton, Hicks, Taillon, Kluber, Severino, and key bullpen piece Zack Britton. 3rd at worst.
Best case scenario – It’s always championship or bust for the Yankees. They have the makings to make the Fall Classic this year and if everyone can stay healthy, they may be one of the favorites to win it all.
My prediction: 1st place AL East
