2021 Cincinnati Reds Preview

2020 finish: 31-29, 3rd in NL Central, lost 0-2 in NLDS

Key additions: Sean Doolittle (FA WAS), Dee Strange-Gordon (FA SEA), Cam Bedrosian* (FA LAA)

Key subtractions: Trevor Bauer (FA LAD), Anthony DeScalfani (FA SF), Freddie Galvis (FA BAL), Archie Bradley (FA PHI), Raisel Iglesias (trade LAA)

*denotes a minor league deal

Entering 2020, the Reds had lofty expectations. Many predicted them to win the central, many also predicting them to make the World Series. They made the playoffs but I think they forgot the season continued for them because they did not score a single run in the 2 playoff games in Atlanta. They were a pretty darn good team on paper. I was rather high on their 3 headed monster they had in their rotation consisting of Bauer, Castillo, and Gray. Bauer earned himself his first Cy Young and a ginormous contract with the Dodgers. Castillo and Gray were outstanding as well, but it was their bullpen that let them down. Raisel Iglesias was fine but getting to Iglesias was the hard part. Then once the pen figured things out, their offense went AWOL. While they were active this offseason, they primarily bring back the same team. Let’s take a look at the 2021 team.

Three-fourths of the Reds infield returns. They lost Freddie Galvis but bring back Eugenio Suarez, Mike Moustakas, and Joey Votto. Votto is currently on the Covid IL. Votto is entering his 15th season, all with Cincinnati. He has been an on-base machine in his career. Leading the league in On Base Percentage 7 times. He is the active leader in that category as well. He is no longer a power hitter he once was. He hits more for contact with the occasional home run. 2020 was an odd year for him. It was the first time he hit less than .250, hitting .226. He was able to deliver 11 home runs though. Mike Moustakas is back again as the team’s second baseman. He’s an unconventional player to be at 2B but they want his bat in the lineup. He’s surprisingly an average defender there. He’s hit 30 home runs twice in his career and I think he could do it again this season. Speaking of home runs, did you know that Eugenio Suarez had 49 home runs in 2019? I knew he had quite a bit, but I didn’t realize he almost hit 50! He hit 15 in the shortened season which would have been about 41 home runs. He’s still only 29 and should be in line for another big season. Then at shortstop, you might see a few different guys. Kyle Farmer, Dee Strange-Gordon, and Jose Garcia could all see time there. Jose Garcia I think makes the most sense, but it seems like the Reds are wanting to give Farmer a shot. Tucker Barnhart doesn’t do much offensively behind the dish, but he is one of the elite backstops in the game. 

In left field, you’re likely to see Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, and NIck Castellanos from left to right. You could also see a little bit of Shogo Akiyama, whom is currently injured and Aristides Aquino. Winker primarily saw time at DH last year. With that not an option in 2021, he will be splitting time in the outfield. He has started to come into his own and has developed some power. He increased his slugging 70 points. If he can keep the starting job, you could see him reach 25 home runs. In center, Nick Senzel is reaching the post-hype stage of his career. He was one of the top prospects a few years ago, but has failed to live up to those expectations. Lack of production and injuries have hampered his development. He’s been doing well so far this spring hitting .316 with 2 home runs. Let’s see if he can translate this success to the regular season. Nick Castellanos was one of the team’s big acquisitions prior to 2020, He didn’t disappoint by hitting 14 home runs, which was on pace to reach a career high. If he can keep that up this year, 30 home runs wouldn’t be out of the question. 

Projected lineup via Fangraphs

Jesse Winker LF

Nick Castellanos RF

Joey Votto 1B

Eugenio Suarez 3B

Mike Moustakas 2B

Nick Senzel CF

Kyle Farmer SS

Tucker Barnhart C

The rotation takes a big hit by losing Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer to the Dodgers in free agency. Luis Castillo assumes the role of team ace. He has held his own and them some during his 4 seasons. He has increased his K rate to over 11 K/9 while slightly decreasing his walk rate. His ERA+ shows that he is an elite pitcher. He should be a candidate to win the Cy Young this year. Sonny Gray, since getting out of Oakland, has really turned his career around. There were people that wondered whether he lost it already at the age of 26. Now, entering his age 31 season, he has certainly silenced those critics. 2019 he was 7th in the Cy Young. He took a step back in 2020 when his walk rate nearly increased by a full walk. Should he stay healthy, he should be in line for 180 IP and more than 200 Ks. I say should, because it’s not looking likely that he will be ready to go to start the season. Tyler Mahle took a step in the right direction in 2020. He should be able to handle being a full time starter but questions remain about his stamina. The final 2 spots (3 if you include a replacement for Gray) comes down to Wade Miley, Michael Lorenzen, and Tejay Antone. Lorenzen has been told he has an inside track for one of the spots. Miley has always been a serviceable starter, he’s just inconsistent. The guy I really like here is Tejay Antone. He could flourish in the rotation or coming out of the pen. The past couple seasons he has really made a big jump developmentally with his velocity. He went from less than 9 K/9 in 2018 jumping to over 11 K/9 in 2019 and continued that last year. He’s a guy you definitely want to keep an eye on.

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Luis Castillo

Sonny Gray (likely won’t be ready for Opening Day)

Tyler Mahle

Wade Miley

Michael Lorenzen

Tejay Antone (likely replaces Gray)

Amir Garrett – closer

Prospects you should know

Nick Lodolo – a first round draft pick in 2019, there’s a chance he could make his debut this season. Not sure the ceiling is very high, but does have a high floor. 

Hunter Greene – Talk about high ceiling. Missed 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. Opened eyes last year at the alternate site. Has hit 100 with ease this spring. 

Jose Garcia – athletic with a high IQ, has raw power that has yet to be tapped into.

Worst case scenario – Inconsistencies continue and can’t sniff .500

Best case scenario  – the team finally figures it out all at the same time. Push for the playoffs.

My prediction – 4th in NL Central