2020 Finish: 31-29, 2nd in NL East, lost 0-3 to Braves in NLDS
Key additions: Ross Detwiler (FA LAD), Anthony Bass (FA TOR), Adam Duvall (FA ATL), Gio Gonzalez (FA CHW)
Key subtractions: Brad Boxburger (FA MIL), Matt Joyce (FA DET), Sean Rodriguez (FA LAA), Logan Forsythe (FA SD), Brandon Kintzler (FA CHC), Jose Urena (FA DET)
The Marlins were one of two teams who had a severe Covid outbreak. The Marlins didn’t even get through the opening weekend. In total, the Marlins had 18 players test positive. That’s over half the team of active players at the time. Many of those that tested positive were impact players. Because of the outbreak, they used 61 total players during the season. No one gave them a chance the rest of the season. No one except manager Don Mattingly. He not only led the Marlins to a postseason berth, but they swept the Cubs in Chicago during the Wild Card Series before being swept themselves by division rival Braves. What will the Marlins reel in this year?
Quick, name the Marlin who has played the most games for the Marlins without playing for another team? This goes for of all time. If you said Brian Anderson, you’d be right. Brian Anderson has played 366 games claiming the title for most games played solely as a Marlin. Anderson, entering his 4th full season, has played both RF and 3B in his career. He will be playing 3B once again. Finishing 4th in the rookie of the year voting in 2018, he has steadily improved each season. I think he has reached his plateau though. Should get to 20 homers and hitting .260. Miguel Rojas has been the everyday shortstop for 3 seasons now and has been serviceable, and has been very good defensively. Isan Diaz, no longer a prospect, is likely to start at 2B. He hasn’t done well so far this spring, but he’s come in with the mindset that he will be the starter. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen. I’m not sold on him really amounting to much. Over at 1B you have the big guy, Jesus Aguilar. He is 2 seasons removed from a 35 home run season. He’s hitting the cover off the ball so far this spring hitting .350. He probably won’t be the 35 home run guy again, but he should easily get 20-25 home runs and should have plenty of RBI opportunities with Marte and Dickerson likely hitting ahead of him.Â
In centerfield, Starling Marte will return. Marte played the most games than any player in 2020: 61. How could he have played 61 games in a 60 game season? Marte was acquired from Arizona midway through the season. The Marlins had played fewer games at that point than the Diamondbacks. Marte has shown no signs of slowing down, literally. He was on pace for his 8th straight season with 20+ stolen bases. He might even put up a 3rd 20/20 season. Corey Dickerson has had a quiet productive career. Would you believe that he has 3 20 home run seasons? He may have reached that mark again in 2020 if it was a full season. Hitting 2nd should be good for him. In right field, Adam Duvall joins the crew. Duvall is a guy that has a lot of power and that should play well in Miami.Â
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Starling Marte CF
Corey Dickerson LF
Jesus Aguilar 1B
Adam Duvall RF
Brian Anderson 3B
Miguel Rojas SS
Isan Diaz 2B
Jorge Alfaro C
Of the playoff teams, the Marlins had the worst ERA. Pitching I think could be a strength of theirs heading into 2021 and if they make the playoffs, it will be because of their pitching. Sandy Alcantara looks the part of team ace. He does need to get his walks under control, but he has looked extremely sharp this spring. Acquired as the centerpiece in the Marcell Ozuna trade, he could be in line for a big leap forward this season. If he won’t be the ace, it might be a rookie. Sixto Sanchez got a whiff of the majors last season and is one of the favorites to win NL Rookie of the Year. He has all the makings to be the electric, front of the line ace. He pounds the strike zone. He could be the best pitcher the Marlins have had since the late Jose Fernandez. He pitched in his first spring game yesterday going 1.2 innings, allowing 2 hits, no runs, 1 walk, and no strikeouts. Pablo Lopez has also been sharp this spring. In 9 innings, he has only allowed 1 run, walking 1, and striking out 6. 2020 was a step forward for Lopez. It helped that he increased his K rate by 1.5. Elieser Hernandez is another pitcher that really took a big step forward, granted in limited action. While only pitching 6 games, he made those games count. He was 1-0 with a 3.16 ERA, his K rate improved nearly 3 strikeout per 9 innings to nearly 12. I do think he can remain in double digit K rates, which would likely mean another step forward for Hernandez. Finally, Taylor Rogers, like Sanchez, debuted last season. His debut wasn’t the greatest however. He struggled with walks, when then led to runs. He can strike guys out though, which is a plus. He hasn’t done all that well this spring either, which could be a cause for concern. Don’t be surprised if Ross Detwiler makes the rotation over Rogers.Â
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Sandy Alcantara
Pablo Lopez
Elieser Hernandez
Sixto Sanchez
Trevor Rogers
Anthony Bass & Yimi Garcia – co-closers
Prospects you should know
Sixto Sanchez – electric starter, a favorite for rookie of the year
JJ Bleday – Potential 30 home run threat, improved conditioning during shutdown, could get the call this season
Jazz Chisholm – Got a little taste last year. Can steal bases. Could be a Javy Baez type player.
Payton Burdick – one guy you won’t see on many top 100 lists although there’s a couple that have him inside the top 100. Has drawn comps to Mike Trout. Has that power and speed combo. BIG power potential.
Worst case scenario – The length of the normal season doesn’t work for the Marlins like the shorter season did. Young pitchers can’t go the distance. 5th place by a long shot.
Best case scenario – This is probably a near .500 team at best
My prediction – 5th place NL East
