2020 finish: 29-31, 4th in NL Central. Lost 0-2 vs Dodgers in Wild Card Series
Key additions: Kolten Wong (FA STL), Jackie Bradley, Jr (FA BOS), Daniel Robertson (FA SF), Travis Shaw* (FA TOR), Lorenzo Cain (2020 opt out)
Key subtractions: Ryan Braun (FA), Corey Knebel (trade LAD), Jedd Gyorko (FA)
*denotes minor league deal with invite to camp
We have now reached the point in the previews where I cover the 2020 playoff teams. For those that don’t remember, 8 teams per league made the playoffs (as of now, 2021 is back to 5 teams). The Brewers drew the 8 seed and was swept by the eventual champions, the Dodgers. They are returning primarily the same team. They saw big seasons by Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes as well as a dominant performance from the Rookie of the Year, Devin Williams. They saw some regression from lock down closer Josh Hader but he should be back to normal this year. They will also have a new name for their stadium. No longer Miller Park, which was fitting since they are the Brewers, it is now called American Family Field. What will they brew up for 2021?Â
The Brewers will be shuffling their infield around a bit with the addition of Kolten Wong. Wong is one of the best defensive second basemen in the game, earning back to back Gold Gloves with the Cardinals. While he has been inconsistent with his bat, he will be a mainstay in the lineup due to his glove and could be a candidate to leadoff. He’s a career .265 hitter but has topped out at .285 twice. He has what it takes to get back to that level of production. Since they added Wong, that means Keston Hiura will need a new position. He’ll stay on the right side of the diamond sliding over to first base. His bat certainly profiles for 1B, but we will have to see how he does defensively as he was a below average defender at 2B. Entering his 3rd season, this could be a breakout year for him. He has 30 home run potential, but will likely only reach the mid 20s. He hit .303 his rookie season but only .212 last year. I think he will be able to be more of a .280 hitter, which would give him a better chance to get to that 30 home run potential. At short, you’ll have Orlando Arcia. He’s nothing special. He’s a light hitter, doesn’t give you a lot of power, okay defensively. Over at third, you’ll see a familiar face if you’re a Brewers fan. Travis Shaw returns after spending the past year in Toronto. He only signed a minor league deal, but all signs point to him making the big league roster. Behind the dish Omar Narvaez enters his 2nd season with the Brewers. He’s a solid catcher that broke out in 2019 with Seattle but took a step back last year. I don’t think he can get back to the 22 home runs he had in 2019. Maybe, just maybe 15, but that’s probably pushing it.
For the first time since 2007, Brewers fans won’t see Ryan Braun anywhere on the field. His mutual option was declined this past offseason. There is still a chance he could return, but it’s up to him. Last I heard, he was still deciding whether or not he still wanted to play baseball. I don’t see him playing elsewhere. I think it’s Milwaukee or bust. But let’s talk about the guys who will be playing. Up until last week, Avisail Garcia was likely heading toward a starting spot in the outfield. That was until the team signed Jackie Bradley, Jr. JBJ signed a 4 year deal coming from Boston. I was surprised to hear he will be playing right field since he’s an elite defender in center. Excluding his 2020 campaign, since becoming a full time player in 2016, he has averaged 19 home runs. He could get back to that, but I think 15 is more realistic. Returning to centerfield is Lorenzo Cain. Cain opted out after 5 games last season, which certainly hurt the Brewers. Getting him back and that’s like adding a free agent or trading for a player. That’s a big leader they’re getting back, so not only will they get his production, they will get leadership in the clubhouse too. Should be good for double digit home runs. Then you have Christian Yelich. Coming off back to back MVP caliber seasons (winning in 2018), he really couldn’t get off the ground running in 2020. He hit .205 but was still able to hit 12 home runs. I wonder if he was affected by the lack of in-game video available in the dugout last year. With that returning, I think we should expect him to return to his MVP caliber self.Â
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Kolten Wong 2B
Lorenzo Cain CF
Christian Yelich LF
Keston Hiura 1B
Travis Shaw 3B
Jackie Bradley, Jr RF
Orlando Arcia SS
Omar Narvaez C
As I mentioned above, both Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes, especially Burnes, took big steps forward. Woodruff and Burnes had very similar numbers. I actually expect them to both contend for the NL Cy Young, which will be big reasons why they will contend for the NL Central Division title. Behind them, they’ll throw Josh Lindblom, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson. Lindblom was average at best in his first season back to the states after 2018 and 2019 in Korea. 5.16 ERA, but was able to produce a K/9 north of 10, however his walk rate was also higher than 3. 2020 was supposed to be a breakout season for Adrian Houser. That was all but the case. He had an ERA of 5.30, his K rate decreased while his walk and home run rate increased, which aren’t good combinations. I do expect him to have that breakout season this year that people expected last year. Brett Anderson is your prototypical veteran pitcher that can eat some innings for you. Overall, I think the Brewers pitching is better than what people may initially think, especially given their 2 headed horse at the top with Woodruff & Burnes.Â
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Brandon Woodruff
Corbin Burnes
Josh Lindblom
Adrian Houser
Brett Anderson
Josh Hader – closer
Prospects you should know
Weak farm system. Really all you need to know is…
Bryce Turang – solid defender, should be able to hit and get on base as well as use his speed to steal.
Garrett Mitchell – 20th overall pick in 2020 out of UCLA. Potential 5 tool player.
Worst case scenario – Woodruff and Burnes regress. Hader can’t get back to his usual self. Another 4th place finish.
Best case scenario – Cy young finishes for Woodruff and Burnes, Houser is able to step up and Yelich returns to his MVP caliber self.Â
My prediction: 2nd in NL Central
