2020 finish: 28-32, 3rd in NL East
Key additions: JT Realmuto (re-signed), Didi Gregorius (re-signed) Archie Bradley (FA CIN), Matt Moore (FA Japan), Brandon Kintzler* (FA MIA), Brad Miller (FA STL), Jose Alvarado (trade TB), Sam Coonrod (trade SF)
Key subtractions: Jake Arrieta (FA CHC), Brandon Workman (FA CHC), Tommy Hunter (FA NYM), Jay Bruce (FA NYY)
2020 was supposed to be a playoff run for the Phillies. They always seem to look good on paper, but recently, they haven’t been able to make things work. Last year, their bullpen imploded. They made some good moves to improve their team, a team that hasn’t had a winning record since 2011, which was the last time they made the postseason, which also feels like an eternity for Philly.
Their infield is strong. Rhys Hoskins was on pace for his 3rd straight 25+ home run season (if you extrapolate for a 162 game season). In 2019, he led the league in walks, however, in 2020, his walk rate was down. His season overall was up and down. He had a very strong August, but struggled a bit in September, before getting hurt. He is currently recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow after a collision. The thought was that he would need 4-6 months of recovery time but he has already appeared in 3 games this spring. If they want to send him to the team’s alternate camp to help him get more work, I wouldn’t be surprised. Should that happen, Alec Bohm would slide over from 3B to fill 1B. Bohm burst onto the scene last year finishing 2nd in the NL rookie of the year voting. He had the team’s highest batting average at .338, was 2nd in OBP behind Bryce Harper, and 3rd in OBP+. I’d say that’s a decent debut. Expectations for Bohm are now high. The Phils double play combo returns after Didi Gregorius re-signed. Gregorius, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery in 2019, hit .284 with 10 home runs, 40 RBI, and an .827 OPS as he was one of 15 players to play all 60 games. The Phillies liked what they saw in the 1 year of Didi, they brought him back on a 2 year deal. He will continue to turn two with Jean Segura. Some say Segura has declined a bit in recent years and some of the stats seem to back that up. Since his career high OPS+ of 122 in 2016, it has declined each season before the 2020 season. He bounced back a bit last year, his age 30 season. Part of that could be due to his improved walk rate. Then there’s the big splash of the offseason. Re-signing catcher JT Realmuto. Realmuto is by far the best all around catcher in the game. Had this been a full season, he likely would have had his best season statistically. He was on pace for 30 home runs, and 86 RBI, both would have been career highs. Expect another huge season from Realmuto.
The outfield is led by Bryce Harper. Harper was much better his 2nd season in Philly. Leading the league in walks, swatting 13 home runs, which extrapolates to 35, which would have been his 3rd straight 30+ home run season. He improved his OBP by nearly 50 points, and his OPS+ jumped up 31 points. While he may not be the MVP player we thought he would be year in and year out, like he was in 2015, he is very much your prototypical middle of the order bat. In center, Andrew McCutchen looks to remain healthy. 2019 he struggled with that but 2020 he was able to play in all but 3 games. He was back to his late Pittsburgh self, minus the stolen bases. No longer the 5 tool player he once was, he is still very productive. He will likely be atop Joe Girardi’s lineup card and could give you 20 home runs again this season. In left field, they will deploy Scott Kingery. As mentioned above, if Hoskins misses time in the beginning of the year, Bohm would likely move to 1B, which would likely mean Kingery will slide in at 3B. Kingery is a man of many positions. Kingery broke out in a way in 2019, but regressed last year. He should be able to get back to close to hitting .230.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Andrew McCutchen CF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Bryce Harper RF
JT Realmuto C
Alec Bohm 3B
Didi Gregorius SS
Jean Segura 2B
Scott Kingery LF
Aaron Nola has really become an ace the past few seasons. He is able to go deep into games, leading the league on complete games last year, and finished 7th in the Cy Young voting. He has increased his strikeout rate the past two seasons. If he continues that, 250+K is very possible. His career high to date is 229 in 2019. When the Phillies signed Zack Wheeler, it was said they saw something in his delivery that they could fine tune to make him a better pitcher. They may have found something because he produced his lowest ERA of his career, drastically reduced his home run rate and dropped his walk rate. His strikeout rate also took a hit, but as long as he is getting guys out, the Phillies shouldn’t be concerned. Zach Eflin has been a very serviceable pitcher the past few seasons, improving each of the past 3. He doesn’t wow you with anything but he gets the job done. Then you have the back end of the rotation. This is where they have questions. Vince Velazquez and Matt Moore are currently penciled in. Spencer Howard is likely in the mix as well, especially should one get hurt. I don’t think they have the starting pitching depth that would allow them to be “okay” missing a starter due to injury. While you never want to see a pitcher miss time, they can’t afford to have Nola or Wheeler miss a lot of time. They did improve their bullpen this year with the addition of Bradley, Kintzler, and Alvarado, but they should have also tried to acquire some better starting pitching.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Aaron Nola
Zack Wheeler
Zach Eflin
Vince Velazquez
Matt Moore
Hector Neris – closer
Archie Bradley – closer
Prospects you should know
Spencer Howard – Rough debut in 2020, but will likely be back in the rotation at some point in 2021.
Mick Abel – 15th overall pick last year out of high school. Solid 4 pitch repertoire. Makes for a very intriguing pitching prospect.
Worst case scenario – Their hitting will carry them, but I’m worried about their pitching. Not likely a last place team, but the East will be a bloodbath, so anything could happen.
Best case scenario – Bohm continues to rake. Howard rebounds
My prediction: 4th in NL East
