2021 Seattle Mariners Preview

2020 finish: 27-33, 3rd in AL West

Key additions: Chris Flexen (FA Korea), Kenyan Middleton (FA LAA), James Paxton (FA NYY), Ken Giles^ (FA TOR), Rafael Montero (trade TEX)

Key subtractions: Yoshisha Hirano (FA Japan), Carl Edwards, Jr (FA TEX), Dee Strange-Gordon (FA CIN)

^denotes out for 2021

The Mariners were in the news a few weeks ago when their now former CEO Kevin Mather had recordings leaked of him putting down players in the organization in regards of their English speaking capabilities, and service time manipulation, among other things. Mather wound up resigning as a result. As for how they did in 2020, Kyle Lewis unanimously won AL Rookie of the Year, something Ken Griffey, Jr couldn’t do and the first Mariner rookie to win the award since Ichiro in 2001. They got some good production out of Dylan Moore, and Austin Nola. Nola was traded to the Padres at the deadline in a 7 player deal that brought over Taylor Trammell and Ty France. How will they look this year?

Before making his debut, Evan White signed a big contract, so that should tell you that the Mariners have big expectations for him. He struggled last year hitting .176 but did provide a decent amount of pop with 8 home runs. Could he eventually be a Joey Gallo type hitter? Maybe. He’s probably good for at least 17 home runs. Dylan Moore gave the Mariners a nice piece of hitting last year. In his 2nd season, he gave about the same production in fewer at bats, but did have a better average and increased his OBP by nearly 60 points. He played all over the infield, but will likely see most of his time this year at 2B. Moore’s double play partner, JP Crawford has really started to come into his own since coming over from Philadelphia. He won’t give you a lot of power, but is improving his contact. Kyle Seager is entering his 11th season, all with the Mariners, however has just over 9 years in service time. He could be entering his final season with the Mariners as the club holds an option for 2022. If they are looking to trade him, they would want to do that prior to him earning his 10/5 rights. He was one of 15 players to play all 60 games. Since becoming a full time player in 2012, he has had at least 20 home runs each season. He hit 9 in the shortened season, so if you extrapolate his numbers to a full season, that would be about 24. He is likely going to be good for at least 23 home runs again this season too. 

In the outfield, they will start off with Taylor Trammell, whom they acquired in the Nola trade last year. Trammell has bounced around the past few years. He will open the season with his 3rd organization in 3 years. He started in Cincinnati and was traded to San Diego in 2019 in the 3 team trade that brought Trevor Bauer to the Reds. Then last season, Seattle acquired him from the Padres in the Austin Nola deal. He is expected to crack the Opening Day roster and is playing well so far this spring hitting .313, 1 home run, and a 1.076 OPS. In center, you have reigning Rookie of the Year, Kyle Lewis. Lewis was unanimously voted the winner, becoming the 12th unanimous winner, and the second consecutive year a player won unanimously (Houston’s Yordan Alvarez won in 2019). He ended the year on a sour note, hitting only .147 in September. He’s hitting well so far this spring and it’s likely he will transfer that over to when the games count. In right field, Mitch Haniger is finally healthy after 3 surgeries after rupturing a testicle on a foul tip, which also later led to a tear of his adductor muscle attachment in his lower core, then finally a discectomy for a herniated disc. This was all 2019-Jan 2020. He was likely to miss most of the season anyway and with the shortened season, the Mariners decided to hold him out for the entirety of the 2020 season. He’s been doing quite well this spring hitting .308 with a home run and 4 RBI. He’s been rumored in trade talks prior to this season. With 2 of Seattle’s highly touted prospects knocking on the door, it may not take too long for those trade talks to ramp back up. 

Projected Lineup via Fangraphs

JP Crawford SS

Mitch Haniger RF

Kyle Lewis CF

Kyle Seager 3B

Ty France DH

Dylan Moore 2B

Taylor Trammell LF

Evan White 1B

Tom Murphy C

Team ace Marco Gonzales has really improved since coming over from St. Louis. His ERA has decreased each season from 4.00 in 2018 to 3.10 last season. He made a huge improvement in his walk rate going from 2.5 to a league leading 0.9 BB/9! That also helped his K/BB rate as well. In 2019, he had about 2.5 Ks for every walk. Last year? 9 Ks for every walk! That also led the league! I don’t think that is sustainable so He will likely be closer to a 3.50-4.00 ERA this season, but will still produce a strong season. James Paxton returns to the Great Northwest after spending the past 2 seasons with the Yankees. He has struggled last year as he became more hittable, allowing more hits per 9 than any season before. This could be a result of his offseason back surgery that he had and he had flexor tendon issues. That’s something that needs to be watched closely. Usually when there’s an issue with your UCL, a type of flexor tendon, you need Tommy John surgery. Pax has yet to appear in a spring training game this year, but has begun to pitch in simulated games. With his decline in his velocity last year, and he has still yet to appear in a spring training game, this could be a cause for concern. Yusei Kikuchi enters his 3rd season with the Mariners. His first two haven’t been great. He’s been better this spring, but time will tell if he will continue this. The last 2 spots are likely going to be 3 guys. Yes, the Mariners are likely to have a 6 man rotation. Justin Dunn, Chris Flexen, and Justus Sheffield will all likely be in the rotation. Flexen has looked decent this spring. Sheffield has struggled allowing 6 runs on 9 hits in 4.1 innings. Dunn has only pitched 2 innings but has yet to allow a run. 

Projected Rotation via Fangraphs

Marco Gonzales

James Paxton

Yusei Kikuchi

Justin Dunn

Chris Flexen

Justus Sheffield

Rafael Montero – closer

Prospects you should know:

Oh boy, do they have some major talent waiting in the wings!

Jarred Kelenic – Kelenic is a superstar in the making. Controversy has surrounded him with potential with the front office likely tampering with his service time by keeping him down. Now, he is dealing with a knee injury which will likely keep him out for the first few weeks of the season. 

Julio Rodriguez – Another superstar in the making, possibly a higher upside than Kelenic. Likely won’t debut until 2022. 

Emerson Hancock – 6th overall pick last year. Has an upper rotation starter projection. Has 4 plus ranked pitches. Coming out of University of Georgia, could be fast tracked.

Logan Gilbert – Don’t be surprised if he cracks the rotation this year. Explosive fastball. Upper tier rotation starter. 

Best case scenario – Kelenic explodes onto the scene and helps push the Mariners toward the playoffs.

Worst case scenario – pitching woes continue for the M’s. Aside from Gonzales, Pax doesn’t remain healthy, Kikuchi regresses, and the young pitchers don’t develop. 

My Prediction 5th place in AL West