2021 Washington Nationals Preview

2020 finish: 26-34, tied for 4th in NL East

Key additions: Kyle Schwarber (FA CHC), Ryan Zimmerman (re-sign), Brad Hand (FA CLE), Alex Avila (FA MIN), Jon Lester (FA CHC), Josh Bell (trade PIT)

Key subtractions: Sean Doolittle (FA CIN), Asdrubal Cabrera (FA ARZ), Kurt Suzuki (FA OAK), Michael A. Taylor (FA KC), Howie Kendrick (retirement), Adam Eaton (FA CHW)

The Washington Nationals, fresh off a World Series Championship in 2019, some may say they suffered a 2020 hangover. I beg to differ. They lost MVP candidate Anthony Rendon to the Angels in free agency and they couldn’t replicate his production. Injuries have started to creep up on ace Max Scherzer the past couple seasons, though he fought through it in 2020. Stephen Strasburg was only around for 5 innings before being out for the season. Health and production should return for 2021. How much will that improve the Nationals chances at returning to the promise land?

In 2020, Mr. Nat, Ryan Zimmerman opted out. He is back this year and as is a new first baseman. Josh Bell received a Christmas miracle by being traded out of Pittsburgh on Christmas Eve. Bell broke out in a big way in 2019, but took a step back in 2020. I’m sure that was because all the offense centered around him. I think with him being on a better team and a better lineup, hitting behind Juan Soto or Trea Turner, that should really help him turn things around. Dave Martinez plans to deploy Starlin Castro at second base this season. He is normally one that will give you decent production and remain healthy. He should be a nice piece in the back half of the lineup. So far, he is tearing the cover off the ball this spring hitting .462.  Many people had big expectations for Carter Kieboom. Part of it was due to him being a nicely regarded prospect, and part was the replacing of Rendon. I think expectations were set too lofty for him and the pressure of trying to replace Rendon got to him. He only hit .202 and didn’t hit a single home run. He did have LASIK done over the offseason and so far, hitting coach Kevin Long said that he notices an improvement already. I do believe he will do better (he can’t really do much worse). Then you have Trea Turner. You could make an argument, along with about 3 others, that he is the best shortstop in the game. He has the power and speed combo that people love to see, he’s not a slouch at the plate in general as he is a career .296 hitter. If you extrapolate his 2020 numbers to a full 162 game season, he would have hit .335, with 32 home runs and 124 RBI. That’s an MVP caliber season if I ever saw one. 

In the outfield, they return Victor Robles and Juan Soto. More on them in a minute. Adam Eaton left in free agency to sign back with the White Sox and they replaced him with Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has all the talent in the world with the bat, but hasn’t really been able to put it together. As a matter of fact, he and Joc Pederson have nearly identical stats. Schwarber should fit nicely in the middle of the Nats lineup and give them a big boost of power. In center, Robles will return. He struggled offensively last year, winding up at the bottom of the order. I think Dave Martinez is going to try Robles at leadoff, that way he can keep Trea Turner in the 3 hole. If he continues to struggle, I don’t think he will want to put Turner back at leadoff, so maybe he would try Castro. Then we have Juan Soto. In 3 seasons, he went from a top prospect, to a top 5 player in the game, in my opinion. Juan Soto finished 5th for NL MVP last year and I expect him to be a top 3 candidate this year. Last year, he led the league in batting average, on base percentage, slugging, On base plus slugging, & OPS+. He also drew the most intentional walks. If we extrapolate his homers and RBI to a full season, he would have had 35/100. 

Projected Lineup via Fangraphs

Victor Robles CF

Juan Soto RF

Trea Turner SS

Josh Bell 1B

Kyle Schwarber LF

Starlin Castro 2B

Yan Gomes C

Carter Kieboom 3B

Mad Max is entering his final season of his contract and is entering his age 36 season. He hasn’t really shown many signs of slowing down other than some nagging injuries. He still produces a high strikeout rate. He will likely surpass a major milestone this year: 3000 strikeouts. He is only 216 Ks shy. If he can stay healthy, he should reach it! Stephen Strasburg missed nearly all of last season due to carpal tunnel surgery. He is back in game action this spring, topping out at 93 mph in his first start. I’m sure they will be careful with him to make sure he’s fully ready to go for Opening Day. Patrick Corbin is working on a new pitch: a cutter. Corbin struggled last season and a dip of his K rate could be to blame. If he can develop the cutter, that could help bring it back up, which should result in a better ERA. The Nationals bring Jon Lester over from the Cubs on a 1 year deal. I’m not sure how much Lester has in the tank. He will likely eat up innings, but that is going to be about it. The final spot is likely between Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, or a darkhorse, Seth Romero. Before debuting last year, he hadn’t pitched above A ball. For not pitching since 2018, he did quite well in his 3 appearances. I would suspect Joe Ross, who has the most experience, to get the 5th spot.

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Max Scherzer

Patrick Corbin

Stephen Strasburg

Jon Lester

Joe Ross

Brad Hand – closer

Prospects to know

Jackson Rutledge – a 2019 1st round draft pick, has a big fastball with front of the rotation potential

Honestly, they have a TON of pitching prospects. Their top 8 prospects are pitching. They seem to be building with pitching.

Best case scenario – Soto and Turner are MVP candidates, Corbin and Strasburg bounceback to give the Nats a 3 headed pitching monster again. Potential deep playoff run. 

Worst case scenario – I don’t think they’re a last place team but the possibility of a sub-.500 2021 is real. 

My prediction: 3rd NL East