2020 finish: 26-34 4th in NL East
Key additions: Francisco Lindor (trade CLE), Carlos Carrasco (trade CLE), Joey Lucchesi (trade SD), Trevor May (FA MIN), James McCann (FA CHW), Jose Martinez (FA CHC), Aaron Loup (FA TB), Albert Almora, Jr (FA CHC), Jonathan Villar (FA TOR), Kevin Pillar (FA COL), Taijuan Walker (FA TOR), Mike Montgomery* (FA KC)
Key subtractions: Michael Wacha (FA TB), Rick Porcello (FA), Justin Wilson (FA NYY), Jake Marisnick (FA CHC), Yoenis Cespedes (FA), Wilson Ramos (FA DET), Todd Fraizer (FA PIT), Amed Rosario (trade CLE), Andres Gimenez (trade CLE) Steven Matz (trade TOR), Robinson Cano (162 game suspension)
*denotes minor league deal with invite to camp
The Mets were probably one of the top 3 busiest teams in the league this offseason with new owner Steve Cohen saying he will do what it takes to make the team a contender. He sure didn’t disappoint. They added at least 11 guys that will have some sort of impact on the team, including Francisco Lindor, one of the best shortstops in baseball. Lindor is entering his walk year and will likely command a lot of money on the open market. That’s why the Indians felt they had to trade him now. While it did cost them Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, plus a few other prospects, they were able to hang onto guys like Ronny Mauricio and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Not only did they get Lindor, they were able to get Carlos Carrasco as well. Talk about a heck of a deal. Expectations are high for the Mets entering 2021.
The theme of the Mets this year will be power. They have tons of it. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they lead the league in home runs. Francisco Lindor and his contagious smile comes to Queens. He is in his walk year and is already one of the best shortstops in the game. The Mets are wanting to sign him to an extension to avoid potentially losing him in free agency. Lindor has said that he doesn’t want to have the talks during the season so he can focus on playing and his team. That means the deadline for a contract extension is April 1. He should be able to continue to rake. Prior to the shortened season last year, he had 3 straight 30+ home run seasons. He should be able to reach that again. Back at first base is the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. Entering his 3rd season, he has 69 home runs in total. 53 in his rookie season, which broke the rookie home run record previously held by Aaron Judge. He hit 16 in the shortened season, which would be about 43 home runs in a normal year. Needless to say, this polar bear is pretty powerful. JD Davis will be manning 3B since the Mets are wanting Dominic Smith’s bat in the lineup. Davis is another masher. Remember, I said that’s their theme. Davis could give them 20 home runs. At second base, the Mets were supposed to have Robinson Cano, but he was suspended for the entire season due to PEDs. This is his 2nd PED suspension. Taking his place is Jeff McNeil. McNeil could hover around 20 home runs. Then you have catcher James McCann, could be another 20 home run player. Have you caught on yet? On their infield alone, they could have 140 home runs.
In the outfield, the Mets are giving up defense to add, you guessed it, offense. Dominic Smith broke out last year and the Mets don’t want to lose that offensive production. He played most of his time between 1B and LF. This year, he will be playing left field. Not only does he have power, hitting 10 home runs last year, which is about 27 in a normal season, he has also been a pretty good contact hitter too, hitting .316. In centerfield, the Mets had been looking to improve from Brandon Nimmo. That’s not to say he’s a bad player, because he’s not. For the past few years, they have been looking to improve their centerfield defense. Nimmo isn’t the greatest, so again, sacrificing defense for offense. Nimmo probably won’t be able to hit 20 homers like the infield, but he could be good for 15. In right field, you have another player in their walk year: Michael Conforto. Being that he has been a Met his entire career, and have been very productive, I would think they would prioritize Conforto’s extension over Lindor. That doesn’t necessarily seem to be the case. Conforto has really come into his own the past few years. Slugging at least 25 home runs in each of the last 3 full seasons. That should continue this year. So as you can see, if the infield can get 140, the starting outfield could net you 75, that’s 215 from just your starters.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Brandon Nimmo CF
Jeff McNeil 2B
Francisco Lindor SS
Michael Conforto RF
Pete Alonso 1B
Dominic Smith LF
JD Davis 3B
James McCann C
The Mets offseason almost became even better. The Mets were runners up in the Trevor Bauer sweepstakes. In fact, Mets fans actually thought they landed Bauer as his website leaked autographed Mets caps that were listed by mistake. As good as their rotation is already, they could have used Bauer. They will be without Noah Syndergaard for a while as he continues to recover from Tommy John Surgery. So that leaves Jacob deGrom leading the staff again. deGrom, though he’s on the wrong side of 30, he seems to be like a fine wine, getting better with age. Coming off back to back Cy Young award, deGrom made his case again, finishing 3rd while leading the NL in strikeouts. Carlos Carrasco, as mentioned, comes over from Cleveland in what seemed like a throw in. Carrasco is fully recovered from his Leukemia that he dealt with in 2019 and he came out guns a blazin’. He finished 2020 recording his career bests for ERA and K/9. His only issue last year was his walk rate was the highest it has been since his debut season. Marcus Stroman came over from Toronto at the 2019 trade deadline and did very well. He chose to opt out in 2020 due to Covid, which was also his walk year, which was rather interesting. Many people believed he didn’t like it in New York. He may have put those theories to rest after he accepted the qualifying offer to stay with the Mets for 2021. Taijuan Walker is also a newcomer. Walker has really bounced back last season after being hurt most of 2018 and 2019. Signing with Seattle last off season, he did well enough for the Blue Jays to trade for him. That’s where he really took off. In his 6 starts with Toronto, he posted a 1.37 ERA, only allowing 4 earned runs! Since Syndergaard is out, there is a competition for the 5th spot. You could see a combination of David Peterson, Mike Montgomery, Joey Lucchesi, Robert Gsellman, Jordan Yamamoto, and Jeard Eickhoff. I think they will go with a lefty, which gives the edge to Peterson, Montgomery, & Lucchesi.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Jacob deGrom
Carlos Carrasco
Marcus Stroman
Taijuan Walker
David Peterson
Edwin Diaz – closer
Prospects you should know
Ronny Mauricio – 67th ranked prospect. Athletic, good arm strength. Struggled to drive the ball consistently, but should improve that as he continues to grow.
Francisco Alvarez – Ranked 48th overall, eager to improve all aspects of his game. Should be a regular starting catcher that hits in the middle of the lineup.
Matthew Allen – 75th ranked prospect. Has all the makings to be a front of the rotation starter. While only drafted in 2019 out of high school, could be on the fast track to the bigs.
Best case scenario – everything clicks. Cohen “buys” a championship. Anything less, to Mets fans, would be considered a failure.
Worst case scenario – anything that doesn’t result in a World Series. Besides that, does all these moves really improve the team that much that finished 8 games under .500 last year?
My prediction – 2nd in NL East
