2020 finish: 26-34, 4th in NL West
Key additions: Austin Gomber (trade STL), CJ Cron* (FA DET), Robert Stephenson (trade CIN)
Key subtractions: Nolan Arenado (trade STL), Daniel Murphy (retirement), David Dahl (FA TEX), Kevin Pillar (FA NYM), Jeff Hoffman (trade CIN), Ian Desmond (2021 Covid Opt Out)
*denotes minor league contract with invite to camp
In case you have been living under a rock, the Rockies finally did it! No, they didn’t acquire solid pitching nor did they acquire solid hitting, things they had promised Nolan Arenado since signing him to his massive extension. Nope! They traded him away! Not like GM Jeff Bridich had much leverage. Since the extension, the Rockies have barely made moves to improve the team, and that irked Arenado to say the least. It was all but a given that he would use opt out of his contract after the 2021 season. So you would think, a guy like Arenado, the Rockies would be able to get a huge return. Nope! They did acquire Austin Gomber, a guy who will slide into their rotation and has shown promise, but they didn’t acquire a top 5 prospect from the Cardinals. Not only that, they paid the Cardinals $51M to take him. Rockies fans were calling for his head after hearing the final deal. Rumors have now started for when Trevor Story, a free agent at the end of the season, will be traded. If I’m Story, I don’t sign an extension. I don’t even discuss an extension. Let’s look at how the Rockies will look this year, at least to start the season.
In the outfield, the Rockies will once again be without Ian Desmond, who announced he will opt out of the 2021 season to be closer to his family as we are still in the middle of the pandemic. He did the same thing in 2020. To my knowledge, he is the only player to opt out for this season. In left field, the speedster Raimel Tapia will take over for him. Tapia was on pace for 20 SB last season in the shortened season. In rightfield, mainstay Charlie Blackmon could be entering his final season with the Rockies as he has a player option the next two seasons. I honestly think he would seriously consider opting out, even though he would make $21M, to go to after a ring. Especially if the Rockies aren’t able to bring back Story or trade him. Blackmon started off scorching hot. Flirting with .400 at one point. Then he went on a cold streak and finished at .303. Entering his age 35 season, he’s not showing many signs of slowing down, Although that can change at any point. In center, Rockies will likely have Sam Hilliard. Hilliard started to get an opportunity last year and did okay. He hit 8 home runs, stole 3 bases, but hit .210. He should improve his average to closer to .250 and could be good for 15-20 home runs while stealing about the same amount of bases.Â
The hot corner sure will look different without Arenado there. Ryan McMahon will do his best impression. A left handed hitter, could be primed for a breakout in 2021. He has some good power that can spray it to all fields. His exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel percentage are all in the top 30% of the league. In fact, his exit velocity was in the top 8% of the league in 2019. Could those be good signs to come? If CJ Cron makes the team and starts at 1B, which all indications lead that way, he could hit 40 home runs. His career high is 30 with Tampa in 2018, but I fully expect him to surpass that this year. Up the middle at 2B, will likely be a former top prospect in Brendan Rodgers. I feel like we have talked about Rodgers for 10 years now. Although he’s no longer a rookie, he has played sparingly and struggled to produce while being up. He could have a short leash and Garrett Hampson could see some time at 2B as well. Then that leaves us with Trevor Story. I fully expect him to be in a different uniform by the trade deadline. I don’t think he would suffer much from the Coors effect, like others have. Obviously his production wouldn’t be the same outside of the thin Denver air, but he will have plenty of production wherever he winds up.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Raimel Tapia LF
Trevor Story SS
Charlie Blackmon RF
Ryan McMahon 3B
CJ Cron 1B
Sam Hillard CF
Brendan Rodgers 2B
Elias Diaz C
German Marquez is probably one of my favorite pitchers in the league right now. He has a good K rate, low walk rate, he just pitches half of his games at Coors. Away from Coors, his ERA was 4.62 points lower last season. That’s right. A 2.06 ERA on the road compared to 5.68 at home. Let that sink in. If the Rockies go into full sell mode, he could be a hot commodity and that would be due to his road numbers. Kyle Freeland has had an interesting start to his season. Finishing 4th in the Cy Young voting in his 2nd season, he had almost a 7 ERA in his 3rd season. He saw a nice turn around in 2020, but not to where he was in 2018. Rockies will need him to be below 4 if they have any chance this season. Antonio Senzatela doesn’t strike out many guys but he can get the job done. He’s nothing special but is serviceable. Austin Gomber comes over in the Arenado trade. He’s shown some promise in a few spot starts with the Cardinals. He has done extremely well thus far this spring. 4 innings pitched, 2 hits, no runs or walks, 3 Ks. Then you have Jon Gray. Gray has fallen off of a cliff and is very inconsistent. His K rate plummeted, hit rate shot up, and had nearly a 7 ERA last year. It seems like the odd number years he does well and the even number years, not so much. So maybe this could be a good season for him.Â
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
German Marquez
Kyle Freeland
Antonio Senzatela
Austin Gomber
Jon Gray
Prospects you should know
Zac Veen – top draft pick for the Rockies last year immediately becomes their top prospect. Also 54th in MLB. He has plus hitting and plus power with a nice swing. Looks like Cody Bellinger when he hits. Could he produce like him?
Best Case Scenario: Honestly, not a lot to like, especially if they have a fire sale. Best case would be they hold on to their players, sign Story to an extension.
Worst Case Scenario: Fire sale starts before the calendar turns to June. Could fight for the top pick.
My prediction: 65-103, 5th in NL West
