2020 finish: 26-34, 4th in AL Central
Key additions: Mike Minor (FA OAK), Michael A. Taylor (FA WAS), Carlos Santana (FA CLE), Ervin Santana* (FA), Wade Davis* (FA COL), Hanser Alberto* (FA BAL), Brad Brach* (FA NYM), Jarrod Dyson (FA CHW), Andrew Benintendi (trade BOS),
Key subtractions: Franchy Cordero (trade BOS), Matt Harvey (FA BAL), Alex Gordon (retirement), Maikel Franco (FA)
In 2020, the Royals had to say goodbye to longtime, fan favorite, Alex Gordon. Gordon announced he was retiring at the end of the season. While offensively he was a shell of his former self, he won his 4th straight, and 8th overall, Gold Glove. This was also Mike Matheny’s first season as manager for the Royals. Matheny should enjoy his time in KC. The front office has the Royals future looking bright. Especially in the pitching department. Including Brady Singer and Kris Bubic, who are no longer considered a prospect, their starting rotation could be made all of their top prospects. They do have a couple really nice hitting prospects as well. Somewhat surprisingly, they were one of the most active teams in this offseason, making 9 major moves. Let’s look to see how this affects the Royals for 2021.
Salvador Perez missed all of 2019 due to injury. He returned in a big way hitting 11 home runs, 32 RBI, and hitting .333 with an absurd 161 OPS+. He seems like he’s back to his old self. He is now on the wrong side of 30 so he will need to keep himself in better shape, but there should be no issue with Salvy here. Newcomer Carlos Santana had a mixed 2020. He had a hard time getting consistent hits, but he was still able to produce 7 doubles and 8 home runs despite hitting below .200. He was one 15 players to play in every single game. He has consistently played in 150+ games in 7 straight seasons, including 8 of 9. Expect him to hit more than 20 homers yet again. Across the diamond, at the hot corner, Hunter Dozier’s wallet just got a little fatter. The Royals signed Dozer to 4 year, $25 million extension. Nice little payday for a guy that has played essentially only 3 seasons. He’s likely good for 25 home runs, tops. Up the middle, it’s hard to believe that Adalberto Mondesi is already entering his 6th season with the Royals. Still seems like yesterday he became the first player to make his MLB debut in the World Series. At this point, he is what he is. .250 hitter, 30+ stolen bases, possible double digit home runs. At second base, currently Nicky Lopez mans the spot, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if Hanser Alberto takes that from him with a strong spring. Lopez struggled last year while Alberto was able to hit .283 for the Orioles.
In the outfield, Merrifield started to make his transition to the outfield fully in 2019. He could still see some time at 2nd if they want to get Jarrod Dyson or Bubba Starling some playing time. Merrifield is a great leadoff hitter, getting on base over a third of the time. Helping him out in the outfield will be a couple new faces. Michael A. Taylor comes over from Washington. He was mainly a 4th outfielder with the emergence of Victor Robles but he will have every opportunity to play every day in KC. GM Dayton Moore is quoted to saying that he thinks “there’s still some untapped potential”. He had a breakout season in 2017 in which he hit 19 home runs while hitting .271. He hasn’t come close to that since, even the following season when he played in more games, but had about 50 fewer plate appearances. I don’t expect much from him in terms of production. LF was expected to be Franchy Cordero and there was quite a bit of hype for him heading into the 2021 season. However, he was traded away for Andrew Benintendi. He has struggled with injuries the past season or so, which has really hurt his numbers. He barely hit over .100 last year so while that’s a cause for concern, he is still only 26 and has another year of control after this season. I think he will get back to his normal self.
Lineup via Fangraphs
Whit Merrifield RF
Andrew Benintendi LF
Salvador Perez C
Carlos Santana 1B
Jorge Soler DH
Adalberto Mondesi SS
Hunter Dozier 3B
Michael A Taylor CF
Nicky Lopez 2B (I expect Alberto to win this spot)
Can you believe Danny Duffy has been around for 10 seasons? I can’t either. He hasn’t been lights out, but has been serviceable. A career 4.02 ERA and a game below .500. Lately, he has been able to increase his K rate while lowering his walk rate. He is entering his walk year so hopefully he can improve his number one last time. He could get the Opening Day nod or it could go to Brad Keller. Keller, to me, seems like he’s been around forever even though he’s only entering his 4th season. Keller has a bright future. While he does strike a lot of guys out, he also doesn’t allow a lot of home runs. Mike Minor returns to the Royals after his worst season to date. A 5.56 ERA is nearly a full run higher than his previous worst. Minor has always been able to strike guys out and he improved his rate last year even. He’s not likely to be the 10+ K/9 guy, but definitely between 8 and 9. After Minor, this is where the future belongs to the Royals. They can deploy guys like Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar. They are LOADED with talent in the pitching department. Expect all 4 of these guys to have some sort of impact for the Royals in 2021. This could be the reason why they make a postseason push.
Rotation via Fangraphs
Danny Duffy
Brad Keller
Mike Minor
Brady Singer
Kris Bubic
Greg Holland – closer
Prospect you should know
Bobby Witt, Jr – 7th ranked prospect in baseball. All around great player. Has enormous potential. LIkely superstar.
Daniel Lynch – one of the three pitchers the Royals took in the first round in the 2018 draft. The lefty has increased his velocity after throwing more fastballs. Has a high ceiling as a high end starter.
Asa Lacy – 4th overall pick out of Texas A&M in the 2020 draft. Another lefty the Royals can deploy, need to improve command but should be a top of the rotation starter.
Erick Pena – made a huge leap in many prospect rankings and his trajectory is still skyrocketing. Drawing Carlos Beltran comparisons. His swing reminds me of a cross between Bryce Harper’s force and Fred McGriff’s finish. Ceiling is sky high at only 18 years old!
Best outcome: pitching develops, could threaten for a postseason berth.
Worst outcome: Benintendi can’t stay healthy, Soler regresses again and the Royals don’t have enough pitching. Battle the Tigers for last place.
My Prediction: 78-84, 4th in AL Central
