2020 finish: 25-35, 5th in NL West
Key additions: Joakim Soria (FA OAK), Asdrubal Cabrera (FA WAS), Tyler Clippard (FA MIN), Anthony Swarzak (FA)
Key subtractions: Jon Jay (FA LAA)
2020 was disappointing for the Diamondbacks. They had a busy winter prior to the Covid shutdown. They signed Madison Bumgarner, Kole Calhoun, Stephen Vogt, and traded for Starling Marte. They were expecting to compete for a playoff spot, but instead, find themself picking inside the top 10. Madbum was hurt most of the season, Marte was dealt at the deadline. They still have a fairly decent team. They signed Joakim Soria to close and added depth to their pen with Clippard and Swarzak. Will these moves help them move from the basement of the NL West?
When I think of the Diamondbacks, I still think of Paul Goldschmidt, even though we are now in 3 PG (3rd year Post Goldy). Goldy’s replacement, Christian Walker has filled in quite nicely. While he won’t be the .300 hitter Goldy has been, his production is pretty similar. Walker hit 29 home runs his first year as the starter for the DBacks and 7 in the shortened season. Expect Walker to hit around 25 home runs this year. Part of the DBack’s woes was the regression of Ketel Marte. Marte was 4th in MVP in 2019. He was a fraction of that player in 2020. Could it be because of the lack of video within the dugout? Possibly. Could it be this is really who he is? This is more likely. Numbers have shown that 2019 was an outlier. I don’t think he will sniff 30 homers again in his career. I think he is more of a 15 home run hitter. He may be about a .300 hitter, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t bring back the power. Another 30 home run player that regressed was third baseman, Eduardo Escobar. Marte and Escobar combined for 67 homeruns in 2019 and 6 in the shortened season. Unlike Marte, Escobar struggled to hit the ball in general by hitting a measly .212. Escobar’s home run barrage wasn’t that out of the ordinary as he had his 20+ home runs in 2017 & 2018. I do think we can expect him to get back to his 20+ home run level to go along with a .255 average. Nick Ahmed is a defense first shortstop, winning gold gloves in 2 of the last 3 seasons. He is year in and year out one of the top defenders in the game. Behind the dish will be Carson Kelly once again. Last year was supposed to be his big breakout season. Extrapolate his 2020 numbers, and they are very similar to 2019. I think he’s likely the player we see him as. If they are looking for more offense, they may turn to Daulton Varsho or Stephen Vogt.
Varsho debuted last season playing a few different positions. While he didn’t quite hit the cover off the ball, it’s something he had done in the minors. Varsho is expected to do the same, playing all 3 outfield positions as well as catcher. Kole Calhoun was expected to continue his rightfield role, however, he ended up having knee surgery to repair a medial meniscus tear in his right knee this week. Normal recovery time is 4-6 weeks, which means he won’t be ready for Opening Day. That could give Varsho a spot in the outfield. Tim Locastro is also missing from camp as he tested positive for Covid-19. One thing I think the Diamondbacks might tinker with is moving Ketel Marte back to centerfield and have Asdrubal Cabrera play 2B. I don’t see this being a long term play, but it’s possible until both Locastro & Calhoun get healthy. Long-time Diamondback, David Peralta, was rumored to be traded this offseason, but alas, is still in the desert. He has dealt with injuries every few years, but when healthy, he has been a mainstay in their lineup producing 15-20 home runs, consistently, even topping at 30 in 2018.Â
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Ketel Marte 2B
David Peralta RF
Christian Walker 1B
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Carson Kelly C
Nick Ahmed SS
Daulton Varsho LF
Tim Locastro CF
The Dbacks acquired Madison Bumgarner last offseason expecting him to be the ace they have been looking for since trading Zack Greinke. While they found their ace, it wasn’t MadBum. Zac Gallen debuted for the Marlins in 2019 before being traded for Jazz Chisholm. Gallen was also included in the Marcell Ozuna trade from the Cardinals. At the time, he wasn’t much of a thought in the deal, but he quickly changed people’s opinions. Thusfar in his career, he only has 1 start in which he has allowed more than 3 runs, and that was in 2014. It seems he is an ace developing right before our eyes. He has a solid 4 pitch arsenal even if he has a lower than average fastball velocity. Their thought to be ace Bumgarner has been dealing with injuries the past few seasons and really hasn’t been the same since the dirt bike incident. He looked really good in spring prior to the shut down, but once games picked back up in the summer, he lost zip on his fastball. He regained a little bit of that in the final couple starts of the season and looked very sharp. Maybe this is a sign of things to come for 2021. 2020 could be a turning point for Caleb Smith. He came over from the Marlins in the Starling Marte deal. He pitched admirably in his 4 appearances. Look for him to breakout in 2021. Luke Weaver was the centerpiece in the Goldy trade. His initial season was good prior to his injury, however 2020 was something to forget about. He is likely to bounceback but he’s more of a middle of the rotation guy. Merrill Kelly is your basic innings eater. Nothing special but gets the job done.
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
Zac Gallen
Madison Bumgarner
Caleb Smith
Luke Weaver
Merrill Kelly
Joakim Soria – closer
Prospect to know
Kristian Robinson – talk about superstar potential. Currently a centerfielder, will likely have to move to a corner spot. Don’t be surprised if he make a late season appearance, although 2022 is more likely.
Alek Thomas – another outfielder that will likely be up next season. Not as high of ceiling as Robinson, but will likely do damage with his overall hitting. Not as much power, but could top out at 15 home runs.
Geraldo Perdomo – if you like stolen bases, Perdomo is your guy. Doesn’t have much pop and could continue to improve his basestealing, but he is a very good defender and hitter. He should make an impact on the team this year.Â
Best case scenario: Playoff bound as a 2nd wild card, but likely that’s the only postseason game.
Worst case scenario: 2020 is really who they are. Some may say trading away Goldy will be a curse. Not as bad as 2020, but not good.
My prediction: 81-81 3rd in NL West
