2021 Minnesota Twins Preview

2020 finish: 36-24, 1st in AL Central, lost 2-0 in ALWC to the Astros

Key additions: Nelson Cruz (re-sign), Alex Colome (FA CHW), Hansel Robles (FA LAA), JA Happ (FA NYY), Andrelton Simmons (FA LAA), Matt Shoemaker (TOR)

Key subtractions: Jake Odorizzi (FA HOU), Eddie Rosario (FA CLE), Matt Wisler (FA SF), Homer Bailey (FA), Rich Hill (FA TB), Trevor May (FA NYM), Alex Avila (FA WAS), Sergio Romo (FA OAK)

Prior to the 2020 season, the Twins had made the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Each time they made it, they lost to the Yankees. Not only did they lose, they were obliterated. They didn’t win a single game. They hoped to change that in 2020. Well good news and bad news. Good news, they stayed away from the Yankees. Bad news, they were swept by the Astros. As many of the midwestern teams did, they cut quite a bit of payroll either by not bringing back free agents, not picking up options, or non-tendering players. To me, Eddie Rosario was the most surprising. Rosario was one of the most productive players the Twins have had the past few years and they decided to let him go. Will they have an identical 2021?

The Twins big acquisition for 2020 was the signing of Josh Donaldson. The past few seasons, he had a tendency to be injured. He seemed to put those thoughts to rest after his 2019 season with the Atlanta Braves. Well the injury bug bit again and he only played 28 games, not even half of the games, due to a calf injury. He’s now in year 2 of his 4 year contract and I think the injury cloud will remain with him. He can still be a very productive hitter provided he can stay healthy. The last 2 full seasons he played, he had hit for 30+ home runs. I don’t see him playing a full season, so I am not expecting anything more than 23 home runs. Speaking of power, across the diamond at 1B is Miguel Sano. While he did hit for 13 home runs, he struck out a league worst 90 times and only hit .204. He has a ton of power but with that comes a ton of strike outs. That’s just who he is. Jorge Polanco had been the team’s shortstop for a few years now. With the addition of Andrelton Simmons, he’s shifting over to 2B. Polanco seems to me like he is one of the more under appreciated players around. He became an all star for the first time in 2019. Took a little step back last year but should be able to provide 15 home runs with a handful of stolen bases while hitting around .280. Simmons, as mentioned, comes in to supplant Polanco. Simmons is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game right now. He’s a light hitter but his claim to fame is his glove. He’s probably good for about .270 and sprinkle in a few homers. 

Max Kepler is another underherald hitter the Twins have had. He went off in 2019 clobbering 36 home runs. His previous high was 20 the year before. I don’t think he is a 35 home run guy, 30 may be pushing it but he should be able to get 22+. In center, you have a post-hype player in Byron Buxton. Buxton is a former top prospect in the game, has failed to live up to those lofty expectations. Part of that has been due to poor performance but part of that has also been because of injuries. 2020 was his best year offensively. He only walked twice so I would like for him to walk more but he was able to hit .254 and hit 13 home runs in only 39 games. He’s now entering his age 27 season and I feel this is his make or break year. Twins have control of him through the 2022 season, but they could non-tender him like they did Rosario. In left field, I think you’ll start off by seeing Jake Cave but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Alex Kirilloff after too long. Kirilloff is one of the team’s top prospects and he can really hit the ball. He was part of the reason why the Twins felt okay enough to part ways with Rosario. I don’t think he will be in the Rookie of the Year mix, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. 

Projected lineup via Fangraphs

Max Kepler RF

Josh Donaldson 3B

Nelson Cruz DH

Jorge Polanco 2B

Miguel Sano 1B

Byron Buxton CF

Andrelton Simmons SS

Jake Cave LF

Ryan Jeffers C (Mitch Garver?)

Kenta Maeda came over from the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season. Maeda was both a starter and a reliever for the Dodgers but he was only a starter for the Twins last year. He was a masterful and would have won the Cy Young if it wasn’t for a guy named Shane Bieber. He led the league in WHIP, was 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, and had one of his best K rates and cut his walk rate in half. I get the feeling they’re going to want 170+ innings from Maeda and I’m not sure if he will be able to do that. He has only pitched 170+ innings once and that was his rookie season in 2016. The other headliner in their rotation is Jose Berrios. He has really taken a hold of team ace and can give you a lot of innings. He was one of few pitchers to reach 200 innings in 2019. It’ll be interesting to see how manager Rocco Baldelli handles Berrios in 2021. Keep an eye on him in the Cy Young race. He hasn’t received any votes but he has the ability to have that type of season. The rest of the rotation are veterans that have been around the block. JA Happ joins his 7th team of his career after spending the last 3 with the Yankees. He hails from Central Illinois and is entering his age 38 season. You have to wonder how many more years he has left in him. Michael Pineda has been hampered by injuries most of his career. He has all the talent in the world too. He has only pitched more than 150 innings 3 times since debuting in 2011. It caught me off guard to see that Matt Shoemaker is entering his 8th season in the big leagues. He doesn’t give you much but can give you innings if needed.

Projected rotation via Fangraphs

Kenta Maeda

Jose Berrios

Michael Pineda

JA Happ

Matt Shoemaker

Alex Colome – closer

Prospects you should know:

Royce Lewis – out for the 2021 season after tearing his ACL after slipping on ice, hasn’t quite lived up to expectations. Could have debuted this year, but likely later 2022 now.

Alex Kirilloff – probably their best hitting prospect. Will be on the team sooner than later.

Trevor Lanarch – Another top hitting outfield prospect. Could eventually overtake Kirilloff as the team’s best hitting prospect. Good amount of power.

Ryan Jeffers – could break camp as the team’s starting catcher

Worst case scenario – I don’t really see this team becoming a bad team. The AL Central isn’t all that competitive now that the Indians are beginning to break the team up. 3rd at the very worst.

Best case scenario  – Another division title, they actually win a playoff game

My prediction 2nd in AL Central