Time to Extend Lance Lynn

Photo by: Jamie Squire/Getty Images North America

The St. Louis Cardinals have been speculated being ‘in’ on a front-end rotation starter. Max Scherzer, Cole Hamels and David Price all had their names thrown into the Red Bird cap. While the Cardinals may very well be interested in signing or trading for one of those pitchers, they have one slotted in the rotation that should be extended.

Over the past three seasons Lance Lynn has started 95 games. He has thrown over 175 innings in each of those three seasons. He is considered to be a sure-thing for the upcoming season in which fellow starters Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha have questions about their health. 2014 was a complete year for Lynn, posting a 2.74 ERA, 203.2 innings pitched, 181 strikeouts and a 1.262 WHIP. Before 2014, Lynn could be considered a reliable No. 3-5 starter in the rotation but we would often see him struggle later in the season.

Tomorrow is the first day to file salary arbitration. On January 16, each side will be allowed to exchange figures. With Lynn entering his first season of arbitration the Cardinals do not have to consider extending him for another couple season. However, Lynn is 27 and if he continues to perform he will be in line for significant pay-raises each season. This past season the Cardinals paid him $535,000. While he put up impressive numbers the Cardinals will most likely have to pay him around $5.5MM, which is considerable value for what he does.

Arbitration hearings can destroy how a player views an organization. Each side, the player and organization, wishes to get the best value. Lynn’s agent will post their numbers and all the good things he has done for the organization. John Mozeliak and company will appreciate everything the starter has done, but will bring up points on why he should be paid less. The process can create resentment and this is why the Cardinals typically avoid arbitration by settling early or offering extensions.

Offering an extension now will give the Cardinals an opportunity to buy-out 1-2 free agent seasons. Buying out free agent seasons isn’t something that players enjoy doing. However, security of a large pay check often leads to signing for below-market values when offered a long term solution. As stated earlier, Lynn will be around 5.5MM this season, the next season it will probably jump to $9-10MM. While Lynn has not performed to the level of David Price, it is speculated Price will earn around $18.9MM in his final season of arbitration. Price’s arbitration can show the high-end of cost for pitchers that perform in the upper echelon.

Extensions also have a scary side and the Cardinals have recent history of a bad extension. Jaime Garcia was given a $27MM/4 year extension and has spent most of his time on the disabled list. He has appeared in less than 100 innings over the past two seasons and less than 200 over the past three seasons. However, Garcia had a Tommy John surgery in 2008 and his extension was given in 2011 when he had less than 2 seasons of experience. Garcia has club options for two more seasons after 2015. While the extension is considered a bust it may not be when the contract is completed.

Locking up Lynn now for an extension will cost the Cardinals more than the $27MM/4 year they paid Garcia. The Cardinals may be put off by giving Lynn an extension after what happened to Garcia, but those two are not the same pitcher. Lynn does not come with the injury history that Garcia had. While Lynn turns 28 during the season, he would be 30 by the time he would be eligible to become a free agent. If he continues to put up similar numbers, those free agent years could run the Cardinals organization $15-20MM per season. Offering Lynn a $50MM/5 year extension would count for baseball inflation, avoid difficult arbitration hearings and buy-out two expensive free agent seasons at a reasonable cost.

This contract would also be a good deal for Lynn, who plans on living in St. Louis with his family year-round. $50MM guaranteed would be difficult to pass up. He could get injured tomorrow and be guaranteed every dollar of that contract. He could gamble on himself and decline any extension, but it would be very difficult for any player in his situation to pass up that sum of money.

The Birds have been one of the best organization when it comes to getting players to take a hometown discount. It helps the team operate better and spend money in other places. Every indication points to Lynn enjoying his time so-far in St. Louis. While the Cardinals do not have to give him an extension this season, they would be able to save the most money if done so now. If they wait until next season, Lynn could want more years and money. While Lynn’s name doesn’t carry the appeal of Scherzer, Price or Hamels, his performance in 2014 in comparison to the other pitchers cannot be overlooked. If it continues, Lynn is going to be out of the Cardinals budget if it gets to free agency. Now is the time for the Cardinals to lock-up Lynn.