In the third and final part of this edition of “Friendly Fire,” I will be examining the possibility of the Cardinals acquiring David Price. Price is undoubtedly the most speculated about player on the trade market this summer and probably the big name most likely to be a Cardinal come August.
If you missed the first two installments of Arch City’s trade rumors series, be sure to check out Brandt Dolce’s take on a Troy Tulowitzki trade and Dan Buffa’s piece on a Giancarlo Stanton deal. Those are admittedly a little “pie in the sky” because they are centerpieces of their respective organizations, the cost to acquire them, and the backlog of talent and money invested at those positions already.
Although the most likely to be moved because it is the Rays’ M.O., the chance of a Price trade this season has also decreased in recent weeks. The Rays have caught fire, winning six in a row, 15 of their last 20 and are now eight games back with 63 still to play.
They looked pretty darn good last night as they beat the best pitcher in baseball this year 7-2.
The longer the Rays wait to deal Price the less valuable he has, but abandoning a season in which they were picked by many to win the division just as they get hot is not exactly easy to do.
So, lets examine what it would take for the Cardinals to pry Price from Tampa Bay.
1. What package/ profile does Tampa Bay want?
The great thing about the possibility of the Price deal is that we know roughly what it will take to get the deal done because of the speculation, conversations with reporters and Tampa’s previous deals. The Rays were in a very similar situation two years ago with James Shields.
The Rays dealt Shields, fellow starter Wade Davis, a player to be named later and cash to the Royals for top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi (who coincidentally pitched last night and got the win for the Rays) as well as minor leaguers Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard.
There are a few distinctions between that deal and the potential Price one. Shields is considered more of an innings-eater with 11 complete games and 4 shutouts in 2011 alone. The trade also took place before the season started so the Royals got two full years of control of Shields. Price is considered the better pitcher with a Cy Young Award and better career numbers and is two years younger than Shields was at the time. However, Price will only be guaranteed to his new team for a stretch run and another season.
With all that in mind, the Rays ideal return for Price would be Oscar Taveras and one of the young guns, Carlos Martinez, Shelby Miller or Marco Gonzales in that order of preference.
2. The package Mozeliak offers?
Derrick Goold reported earlier this month that Mozeliak said he would not trade “elite prospects” for “mid-range talent.” He included Wacha, Taveras, Wong, and Martinez in this group. Price is definitely above “mid-range talent,” but Mo will still obviously try to avoid trading any of those guys. ESPN writer and former GM Jim Bowden speculated that the Price deal could be done by sending Miller or Martinez and Gonzales. I believe Mo would be okay with sending Miller and Gonzales to Tampa for Price. He would be even happier to send just one arm and one of the plethora of outfielders in the high minors and bigs not named Taveras. Craig is so lost right now he might welcome a change of scenery. Moving Craig would also have the added bonus of freeing up at bats for Taveras, which Mozeliak wants.
3. The contract?
Price’s contract has him paid $14 million this year and then he is eligible for arbitration again, so it is not definitive now what he will be making next year. If the Cards get him and ride him to a World Series it will undoubtedly be more. After the 2015 season, Price is eligible for free agency. The ideal situation for the Cardinals would be to work out an extension with Price before the trade is made to avoid all of these headaches.
4. The downside of the package?
The biggest downside of dealing for Price is mortgaging the future for two runs at a title if they can’t sign him to a long-term deal. It is always a little painful to see prospects you have groomed sent away just as they are blossoming into useable talent at the big league level. However, if the Rays will take the package of Miller and Gonzales or an outfielder or two I think it is pretty much a no brainer. There is potential in Miller and Gonzales, but they have some pretty glaring faults. Price is young enough to make it worth trying to bring him in and try to convince him to stay. If the Dodgers sign Price, the Cardinals can resign themselves to second in the NL for the next five years. It’s a brave new world with local TV deals and the Cardinals have to be willing to spend money to keep up with “Yankees West.”
5. Is Price a good fit for the organization and market?
I think it is hard to find a player that won’t fit with the Cardinal Organization. It has a strong base in leadership and history to which players respond. Price is a good guy and is very engaging with fans. He has a little fire, as we have seen with his battles with David Ortiz, but I think the Cardinals could use a little more of that. Longoria and Price, who were in attendance as fans Sunday, both noted how much they enjoyed the atmosphere of Busch, a common sentiment around the league. Price grew up and went to college in Tennessee, so he wouldn’t necessarily be eager to leave for LA, New York, or Boston. The biggest challenge of the market is finding the money needed to lock Price in to make this more than a rental.
Bonus
Jim Bowden suggested a possible wrinkle to the Price deal in his column, suggesting Ben Zobrist be included in the deal. Bowden speculated that it would take the addition of Wong to get that deal done. I don’t think Mo would do that deal, as Wong has given us a glimpse since he has come back into why he is the second baseman of the future. However, if Miller, Gonzales, and either Craig, James Ramsey, or Stephen Piscotty would get the deal done I don’t see how Mo wouldn’t make the deal. Zobrist is under contract for this season and has a team option for the next. Zobrist could be the bat the Cards need and his flexibility to play almost any position on the field gives Matheny endless possibilities down the stretch.
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If you weren’t totally convinced the Cardinals need another arm because you are confident in a Wacha comeback Strauss threw a little shade on the good feelings surrounding the Wacha news.
Joe Strauss on Twitter
Wacha admitted before TUE game that team docs told him he may not pitch again this season after discovery of shoulder “fissure.
Joe Strauss on Twitter
Wacha added that recent follow-ups leave him optimistic about returning to pitch in September.
Even if Wacha does come back in September, like the best case timeline indicates, it is impossible to know what effect the time off and injury will have on him. Also, the Cardinals need the starting pitchers to go deeper into games. Outside of Wainwright (save for last night) and Lynn, the rotation is putting a ton of stress on the bullpen. That deep bullpen might look thinner than St. Louis would like come playoff time if this workload continues.
Another arm would give the Cards some insurance and what better insurance than a former Cy Young Award winner.
(Photo Credit:Getty Images/Jed Jacobsohn)
Follow me on Twitter, @TimJKaiser
