The Final Four Predictions

The most exciting time for basketball is upon us – The Final Four.  The four best teams in College Basketball take the stage in San Antonio.  In retrospect regarding my previous predictions, I misfired with the Sweet Sixteen but redeemed myself with the Elite Eight.  With the last four-in-a-row in my pocket it’s time to predict the Final Four.

Loyola-Chicago vs. Michigan (-5.5)

Loyola-Chicago continues their improbable run to make history after defeating K-State 78-62.  When the Ramblers initially made the tournament most brackets penciled them in for just one victory, if any.  Who would’ve believed they’d be playing in the Final Four.  Their good luck charm , Sister Jean, and God is on their side against all odds.  They now face Goliath.  Can Michigan stop the Cinderella run?

Getty Images / Kevin C. Cox

The similarities between these teams make the game very difficult to predict.  At one time during the tournament, both won on a buzzer-beater.  Both teams rank in the top 10 in scoring defense for the season (Loyola #5, Michigan #8).  Defensively this game should be the best match up of the tournament.   Only one time in the tournament have both teams exceeded 70 points so expect this to be a low scoring game.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

I think the difference maker is the level of competition.  The Ramblers are a part of the Missouri Valley Conference and the Wolverines are a part of the Big Ten – both conference champions.  The Big Ten is home to teams like Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue and Penn State (NIT Champs) whereas the MVC is home to teams like MO State, UNI, Bradley and Indiana State.  Although Loyola has played solid defense throughout the tournament, Michigan’s defense has shut down guard play better than anyone so far.  The Ramblers are guard-heavy always looking to penetrate and score at the rim.  Michigan can score from anywhere on the court making them the favorite to win.

AP Photo/Alex Gallardo

Prediction: LCHI   59 – 67   MICH (-5.5)

Kansas vs. Villanova (-5)

This match up features two one seeds and two elite programs.  The Jawhawks, coached by Bill Self, advanced to their 15th Final Four and are led by Devonte’ Graham’s 17.2 ppg and 7.3 assists.  Kansas achieved an OT winner against Duke 85-81 but Devonte’ Graham was the showman of the game.  Malik Newman ended the game with 32 points and scored all 13 of the Jayhawks points in OT.  He was also 8-19 from the field and 5-12 from three.

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

The Wildcats are chasing their second title in 2 years.  Villanova put the finishing touches on an Elite Eight victory over Texas Tech, 71-59.  They’re led by AP Player of the Year Jalen Brunson who averages 19.2 ppg and 4.6 assists but in reality, all of Wildcats contribute to the scoring column.  Jalen Brunson led the team with 15 but Bridges, Paschall and Spellman also added double digit scoring.  Now it’s onto the Final Four and this is what to expect.

Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

If Villanova wants a chance at the title, they must shoot the three better in this game than they did against Texas Tech.  As a team, the Wildcats shot 4-24.  That’s just a 16.7% three point percentage.  According to ESPN, Villanova has drained 436 three-pointers and enter the Final Four just six shy of the NCAA single-season record for “made 3-pointers” set by VMI in 2007.  Villanova is a multidimensional offense and their ability to adjust mid-game to any type of pressure is amazing.  As I have repeatedly said throughout the tournament, the Wildcats move the ball better offensively than any other team in the tournament and they always seem to find an open look.  Kansas, on the other hand, has a few good luck charms.  The mother of Udoka Azubuike and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuks’ parents will be anxiously watching in the stands.  For Azubuike, this is the first time his mother has seen him play since he came to the U.S.  Expect him to have a big game down low and equally for Mykhailiuk from three.   Can Kansas rise above or will Nova, who has won the previous two meetings, prevail?

Nick Krug

Prediction: KU   74 – 86   VILL (-5)