Heyward One-And-Done in STL

Now that the dust has settled from the Cardinals-Braves blockbuster trade featuring former top-prospect, Shelby Miller and former all-star Jason Heyward it is time to speculate what is going to happen with Heyward. Shelby Miller had four years left of team control and the Cardinals aren’t a team that dives into arbitration hearings very often. Before last off-season the Cardinals previously went to an arbitration hearing in 1999. Miller would have been signed for those remaining years, possibly a year or two of his free agency and at a team-friendly cost. That is how the Cardinals do business. And they do that business well.

Yet, Shelby Miller is now gone and they traded him for one year of player control of Jason Heyward before he can hit free agency this time next year. Heyward is an interesting talent. His power-potential is in between 25-30 home runs as he hit 27 in 2012. He has been dealing with injuries that have halted his progress. In 2013, Heyward seemed to be roaring back in the second-half before breaking his jaw. Earlier that season he had an emergency appendectomy that sidelined him for a month. Heyward was an average offensive player in the 2014 campaign, posting a .271 average with 11 home runs and an OPS of .735. The potential is there to be a better offensive player, but he hasn’t lived up to that potential. His defensive prowess is more impressive. Heyward made just one error last season and ended up winning the Gold Glove. He has an arm that teams do not test and tracks down balls as good as anyone in right field. He also has the ability to play center field which will make the Cardinals more flexible.

So why did Atlanta trade him in the first place? They simply believed that they could not sign him and would lose him when he hits free agency at the end of 2015. Speculating his contract can be even more difficult, yet fun. Baseball is in the era of ‘offense gets paid’. Not that defense doesn’t. Those guys make good money too, they all do. But not to the level that guys who hit home runs are getting. Heyward’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to FanGraphs is 21.4 since 2010. That puts him around one of the top 75-100 players, during his developmental years without being great offensively. This also includes an abysmal sophomore season. His 2012 season was an impressive 6.1 WAR, the season he hit 27 home runs. If he hits 20 home runs and continues to play his flawless defense, which he is most likely to do until his mid-30s, he is a game-changer. Atlanta could see the writing on the wall. They weren’t going to be able to afford him and decided to cash-in on his value early.

Now consider inflation. Inflation has happened in all areas of life, this includes baseball contracts. Many of you are thinking you would be comfortable giving a guy like Heyward $15-$18 million a season. Well, the prices have been raised. General managers and owners are quickly adapting to the inflation. So should you.  Heyward is going to garner $20-$25 million each season. Baseball revenue has never been higher, guys like Carl Crawford, who had a comparable WAR to Heyward at the time of his signing with the Red Sox, ended up getting an AAV of around $20 million. This means Jason Heyward is going to get $200 million somewhere. It may be the Cardinals. It may be somewhere else. But he is going to test the waters of free agency and he will most likely find that the water feels pretty soothing.

Why will he earn $200 million in a contract? “A team would be crazy to give him that kind of money!” No, teams wouldn’t be crazy to give him that kind of money, and they should offer it to him early.

1. He will be 26 when he hits free agency – This is the single, most important factor as to why Heyward will be getting 200 million. Most guys hope to hit free agency at 28. Many guys are around 30 when this happens. Hitting the market at 30 means there are a lot fewer years of prime production. The younger guys sign through the arbitration years and typically buy-out a year or two of free agency. Heyward is a rare commodity that didn’t have any years of free agency bought-out. The ages 26-33 are great for production. He is getting paid for his best years of baseball. If I’m playing GM I will be comfortable paying for a player’s best years.  If Heyward where 28-30, without knowing inflation, he would probably be around that $15-$18 million range. But, he will be 26, and that counts for a lot.
2. Heyward’s agent is going to point to Stanton’s $325 million dollar deal – No, Heyward isn’t Stanton. He will never hit the home runs that Stanton does. But, that is a lot of money. And you can bet any agent worth his own is going to say that if the Marlins are dishing this kind of money to a player, you have it too. Stanton will also be buying out two years of arbitration in this process.
3. His defense is above and beyond – Many defensive metrics take away points for corner outfield spots. Heyward is a top defender. He can also give flexibility to the Cardinals lineup. They might attempt to hit him leadoff or in the two hole. He also has the ability to play centerfield. This would give Jon Jay a necessary break when needed, or if he doesn’t play as well as he did this last season other options.
4. He signed a two-year deal with the Braves – The Braves were looking to give a long term extension to Heyward as they did with Freddie Freeman. Heyward only wanted the two years to buy-out his arbitration. Heyward is also from Georgia and if there was a discount to be had it would go to the Braves. Signs point to Heyward wanting to go to free agency and wanting to get paid.
5. or (4.b) – He has made it to the last year before going to free agency. When players get this close it means they usually taking things to free agency or they get signed to an extension very early in the season. The longer the Cardinals wait, the more likely it is that Heyward tests the waters. If the Cardinals take a wait-and-see approach on how Heyward adjusts to St. Louis, how he performs and how Piscotty and Grichuk develop the more likely Heyward goes to free agency.

Heyward is going to push for ten years. He is also going to push above $200 million. The Cardinals have this money to spend. Heyward might be their guy. The Cardinals have also been known to get guys to sign for less than market value.  Many free agents or trade candidates take less money to play there. This is a credit to St. Louis and the organization. Heyward will not be taking this discount. General Managers are making adjustments to how they do business and the Cardinals should jump on-board. More and more teams are offering big-money to guys who are still going to produce big numbers. Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw, Freddie Freeman, Andrleton Simmons, Elvis Andrus…etc are all big talents that have signed extensions or contracts when they are young. When they will be their most productive. Heyward will be at his most productive for a good chunk of a 10 year contract. The Cardinals should offer him a big number early, he might sign for a little bit of a discount then. If they don’t give him before spring training ends, Heyward will be one-and-done in St. Louis.