The Idea of Peavy

When big deals with St. Louis Sports teams come to the service, I always write a column entitled, “The Idea of….”. I try to get ahead of the story and see if it has any positive takeaway or if a storm is coming. Call me the transaction weather man. Rumors of Jake Peavy came about yesterday, so I feel compelled to write about this idea. Let’s take a look at this potential deal.

As the Cards celebrate back to back nights of walk off home runs, the rumors spreading around the league have The Cards and Boston Red Sox engaged in trade talks. Jake Peavy’s name popped up yesterday. With a source reporting that a deal could happen quick, allow me to contemplate the idea of Peavy in a Cardinals uniform.

On the surface, acquiring Peavy looks like a huge risk. He is owed 6.4 million for the remainder of 2014 and is having a terrible season with the collapsing empire in Fenway. He is 1-7 with a 4.64 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He likes to walk people, as his 42 passes in 110 innings suggest. He has lost 6 straight starts dating back to the middle of May. Peavy has given up 17 home runs this season. The biggest upside of Peavy are the innings and pitches thrown per game of 103.2. The Red Sox haven’t done him many favors this season, but Peavy isn’t pitching like he is worthy of a deal to a contending deal. He is in the twilight of his career, heading down the hill and not up. While it’s hard to doubt John Mozeliak, a deal for Peavy will hinge on what the Cards give up in return and what voodoo magic the team sprinkles on his right arm. With no disrespect to Derek Lilliquist, I would believe in this deal a lot more if Dave Duncan still served as the pitching coach of the St. Louis Cardinals. He had the magic when it came to rehabilitating veteran pitchers. Think about Woody Williams, Jeff Weaver and Chuck Finley(if for only one season). Peavy is going to need some work if he is going to become a part of a rotation that is very strong to begin with.

Let’s look at the rotation aspect of it because my biggest question with the Peavy deal is where does he slot into this group. Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and for better or worse, Shelby Miller, are the top three starters. Carlos Martinez pitched 6 innings and gets better with every start. Moving him back to the bullpen would be a bad move. He is a starter and that’s clear. Joe Kelly has been rehabbing as a starter, and no one can deny his second half ability to heal an ailing rotation. Kelly has done that 2 seasons in a row. Baseball sabermetric analysts can make attempts to judge his production over an entire season, but that isn’t possible until 2015 because of Kelly’s hamstring. With Kelly returning and Martinez improving, where does Peavy slot in? This only leads me to believe something is up with Miller.

I don’t think the Cards will trade Shelby Miller, but with his recent downturn in performance, there could be a chance he hits the disabled list or gets a few looks in Memphis to clear up issues. He is only in his second full year as a starting pitcher and it wouldn’t be insane to send him down there to clear up the mechanism. Miller is a commodity and a high ceiling talent, but right now he can’t locate a second pitch and he is getting hammered. Sometimes a step back is best. If it’s not Miller, I am confused here.

Unless the Cards adapt and go to a six man rotation, where does a 33 year old veteran of 12 years in the Major Leagues fit on the St. Louis Cardinals? I asked this on social media yesterday and got a wide array of responses. A lot of people said move Kelly to the bullpen, which wouldn’t be wise because you have been working him for 2 weeks to come back to start and with his track record and youth, deserves that chance. Martinez is a starter of the future, so moving him is unwise.

Acquiring an aging talent like Jake Peavy is only unwise if you bump a more deserving pitcher from your rotation. Can one sit here and tell me Jake Peavy pitched better down the stretch in 2013 than Joe Kelly? Will Peavy be better this year than Kelly down the stretch? The only guy who deserves to be bumped right now is Miller, and somehow I don’t see the Cardinals doing that unless something is wrong.

If a Peavy deal takes Allen Craig, a younger player with past success and a team friendly contract, I would expect something else coming to St. Louis along with Peavy. An outfielder or bench bat. If the Red Sox desire Stephen Piscotty or Randal Grichuk, the deal could be straight up. The Red Sox don’t want to pay Peavy next year and have younger pitchers to come up and get work in the second half, so they won’t ask for a king’s ransom like they would with Jon Lester or the Rays would with David Price. Mo makes this deal because it won’t cost him many of his young players.

However, before you blast a Craig swap, consider that the outfielder/first baseman makes 9 million dollars in 2015. His contract is friendly but only in a certain context. His yearly salary will increase as his age grows and his bat potentially slows down even more. I can see what Mozeliak was thinking when Craig got the deal. Either Craig hits well in 2014 and we keep him for a modest price or he becomes a trade chip.

Peavy could come to the Cardinals and revitalize his career and find a third wind. That is possible. Busch Stadium is a pitcher’s ballpark and the National League is an aging pitcher’s safe haven. Slugging is down all around the league, but especially in the National League where guys named Bautista, Encarnicion and Abreu can’t reach you for home runs.

Once again, for the short attention span crowd, let me state this. I am not calling this potential deal a train wreck.  I am only curious of how it would work for the Cardinals.

I do know that Peavy can’t swing the bat that well and can’t play an everyday position. Please don’t let two walk off win’s fool you. They can lead to a season changing streak but they can also cover up a troublesome offense. The Cards bats still need a little thawing and The Peavy deal may not be all there is for the home team during this trade deadline.

I do trust in Mozeliak. I trust the guy like I trust my French press coffee device to serve me the strongest cup of joe. If he thinks Peavy has potential, I will the ride with the Bow Tie Rock Star to the end.

Stay tuned folks. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe doesn’t write fluff and is following this Peavy story day to day. Peavy has been told by Red Sox brass that a deal may be imminent. This isn’t being made up. Jake Peavy to the St. Louis Cardinals is a real thing and I hope I was able to shed some light on it for you this morning.