2020 finish: 25-35, 4th in AL East
Key additions: Matt Harvey* (FA KC), Felix Hernandez* (FA ATL), Freddy Galvis (FA PHI), Wade LeBlanc* (re-signed), Yolmer Sanchez (claimed CHW)
Key subtractions: Hanser Alberto (FA KC), Renato Nunez (FA DET), Alex Cobb (trade LAA), Jose Iglesias (trade LAA)
*denotes minor league deal with invite to camp
2020 started on a somber note for the Orioles after it was announced that Trey Mancini would miss the season due to colon cancer. He is now cancer free which is absolutely wonderful news. 2020 was somewhat of a bright spot as they surprisingly did not finish last in the AL East. They can thank the Red Sox for helping them out. The O’s made some surprising moves by non-tendering Hanser Alberto and Renato Nunez. Alberto and Nunez were two of their better players the past couple seasons, but were likely pricing themselves out of what the O’s would like to pay. Alex Cobb wound up bouncing back in 2020, so much so the Angels though he was good enough to trade for. Jose Iglesias went over with him. So how will the 2021 O’s look? Let’s dive in.
As mentioned, and most importantly, Trey Mancini is healthy. In his first at bat this spring, he received a standing ovation, then immediately singled. I’m sure that felt great for him. Mancini can play 1B, OF, or DH. He will likely DH that way a youngster like Ryan Mountcastle can play 1B, which will give Mancini rest. Mountcastle is one of the O’s top prospects and has a lot of power. He made his debut last year and flourished by hitting .333 with 5 home runs in 35 games. He certainly has 20 home run potential. Across the diamond will be Rio Ruiz. He was a former top prospect for both the Astros and Braves but hasn’t been able to live up to that. He has been able to produce some pop, but has struggled to hit the ball consistently. Up the middle you have a pair of newcomers in Freddy Galvis and Yolmer Sanchez. Galvis is an underappreciated player in my eyes. He does everything right, he hustles, and plays hard. He is a very good defender as well. He might be a trade piece at the deadline, but as long as he is there, he is going to be a guy the young guys look up to. Yolmer Sanchez comes over from the White Sox after they waived him. By adding Sanchez, they add a former gold glover, in which he won in 2019. He’s scrappy, battles at the plate, doesn’t have a lot of pop, but will put the ball in play. Behind the dish you will have Chance Sisco, who is likely just keeping the spot warm until top prospect Adley Rutschman is ready.Â
The outfield is interesting. Santander has really started to come into his own, but can he keep that up. While he hasn’t been a full every day player, he has hit 31 home runs in 130 games the past two seasons. He should be playing every day this year and could flirt with 30 home runs. DJ Stewart is penciled in to start left field, but I think you’ll see him split time out there. You’ll probably see him, Mountcastle, maybe Mancini all out there as well. This is to get Chris Davis some at bats, if you dare to risk it. Chris Davis has refined his swing mechanics this offseason in hopes to make some major changes to his game. He makes so much money, and has been so bad, I don’t see him getting much of an opportunity. Austin Hays is a former top prospect. He is starting to become a full time player. He is one that has a good mix of contact and power, could top 15 home runs this year while hitting around .260.
Projected lineup via Fangraphs
Austin Hays CF
DJ Stewart LF
Anthony Santander RF
Trey Mancini DH
Chance Sisco C
Ryan Mountcastle 1B
Freddy Galvis SS
Rio Ruiz 3B
Yolmer Sanchez 2B
I’ll be honest, outside of John Means and Felix Hernandez, I have no idea who Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer and Jorge Lopez are. After doing a little research, I didn’t realize Lopez was the same Jorge Lopez that played for the Brewers and Royals. Lopez was claimed by the Orioles last year after being waived by the Royals after a very underperforming two seasons. He had nearly a 6.50 ERA with the Royals. It didn’t get much better after coming over to Baltimore and I would expect the Orioles will have a short leash on him. He may be the odd man out if Matt Harvey proves to be decent in spring training. Akin and Kremer both made their debuts last year in 2020. Kremer has been a very solid pitcher with very respectable K-rate in the minors the past few seasons. In 4 starts with Baltimore, he was able to produce similar strikeout rates. He may have a higher ERA given that he’s a young pitcher for a poor team in the AL East, but he should at least put up respectable numbers outside of ERA. Akin profiles fairly similarly to Kremer with the exception that Akin has had a higher ERA coming up throughout the minors. Felix is coming back to action in 2021 after opting out of the 2020 season with the Braves. Until he throws a pitch in the regular season, he still has technically only pitched for the Mariners. Reports have said that Hernandez looks strong and seems to be making a positive impression and should make the O’s rotation and be a veteran presence for the young pitchers. Then you have ace John Means. Means finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting in 2019 but really took a step back in 2020. He doesn’t strike out a lot of guys but he gets the job done.Â
Projected rotation via Fangraphs
John Means
Keegan Akin
Dean Kremer
Jorge Lopez
Felix Hernandez
Hunter Harvey – closer
Prospects to know
Adley Rutschman – best catching prospect the Orioles have had since Matt Wieters, should be better than Wieters. Likely to debut this year.
Grayson Rodriguez – O’s top pitching prospect, a lefty, has an above average 4 pitch arsenal with a solid K-rate. Likely front of the rotation starter.
DL Hall – similar make up to Rodriguez, but a righty. Offspeed pitches aren’t as advanced as Rodriguez
Best case scenario: Is it wrong to think 70 wins is the best case?
Worst case scenario: This could be a team that is historically bad. You could see Mancini get traded if he can remain healthy and possibly John Means, although he still has many years of control left.
My prediction: 59-103, 5th in AL East
