These bold predictions have got my number. I’m already down this season as Josh Donaldson decided to take his talents out to Atlanta on a one year deal worth $23M. If the Cardinals manage to get Harper, I’ll take my 1/2 win on my first bold prediction of 2019. If you remember the 2017 off-season, I predicted that Paul DeJong would hit 40 bombs for the Cardinals over the course of the season. DeJong certainly has the power potential, but he did seem to regress in his sophomore season. A hand injury certainly didn’t help him reach his potential in 2018. But I see 2019 as a bounce back year for DeJong.
DeJong Shows Improvements
| K % | BB % | AVG | OBP | wOBA | wRC + | |
| 2017 | 28.00% | 4.70% | 0.285 | 0.325 | 0.359 | 122 |
| 2018 | 25.10% | 7.30% | 0.241 | 0.313 | 0.321 | 102 |
As you can see, his strikeout rate dropped while also improving upon his walk rate. Now, his strikeout rate could still use some improvement, but it’s a step in the right direction. His average wasn’t quite as good as it was in 2017, but maintained a similar on base percentage. He did show more power in 2017, but I do expect that his home run rate will bounce back in 2019. In 2017, DeJong hit a home run every 16.68 at bats. That number jumped up to 22.94 in 2018. So for his career that gives him a a home run every 19.38 at bats. So if DeJong manages to get 600 at bats this season, his range looks to be anywhere from 26-36 home runs. I expect his rate to be close to 19 at bats, giving him roughly 32 home runs on the season.
If DeJong is to be in the MVP conversation, home runs will certainly help his case. He has the power to do so, and has also shown that he can hit for average at all levels. His defense improved tremendously over his second season catapulting him to one of the top defenders at the shortstop position. All of these things could help build him an MVP case.
Recent NL MVP Winners
| K% | BB% | AVG | OBP | HR | RBI | wOBA | wRC+ | |
| Yelich ’18 | 20.70% | 10.40% | 0.326 | 0.402 | 36 | 118 | 0.447 | 166 |
| Stanton ’17 | 23.60% | 12.30% | 0.281 | 0.376 | 59 | 123 | 0.41 | 159 |
| Bryant ’16 | 22.00% | 10.70% | 0.292 | 0.385 | 39 | 121 | 0.396 | 148 |
A couple things jump out at me that I’d like to discuss.
- Strikeout Rate – The Cardinals recently brought in Jeff Albert to be the hitting coach, and his philosophy bodes well for DeJong. Albert relies heavily on strike zone recognition and wants to cut down strikeouts. If that’s the case, I see DeJong’s strikeout rate to improve again going into 2019.
- Home Runs – Let’s say that DeJong plays roughly the same number of games and has the name number of at bats as the hitters above. With 591 at bats, with a home run rate we discussed earlier, DeJong “should” hit around 31 home runs. Is that enough?
What will DeJong have to do?
| K % | BB % | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | |
| DeJong | 22.10% | 9.38% | 0.283 | 0.368 | 0.535 | 0.903 | 36 | 110 |
Both Yelich and Stanton had an OPS of over 1.000 while Bryant was at .939 the year he won the MVP. While I don’t think these numbers will be strong enough to “win” an NL MVP, I do think this type of production can put him in the conversation and give him a top five finish. If DeJong is able to crank out more home runs or at least bring up his walk rate over 10%, I think he gives himself a better shot. I do think a .280 average is attainable for him. He did hit .285 during his rookie season and did have a .283 combined average during his time in the minor leagues. If Jeff Albert can help his approach in 2019, DeJong could be a sneaky candidate for MVP consideration. Plus his defensive numbers are among the best in the game at the shortstop position.
I may have been wrong on my bold prediction regarding DeJong last season, but I’m feeling pretty good about this one. Let’s see what happens. The Hot Stove is finally heating up and I look forward to sharing my thoughts as things progress.
Thanks for Reading.
Aaron M.
What are your thoughts? Send me a tweet @AaronArchCity
