Everyone has their personal opinions when it comes to off-season acquisitions. As we have learned with so many recent deals, there is a lot of risk to be taken when signing players during free agency. I recently wrote an article where I discussed players I believe the Cardinals should part ways with. While this was just an outsider’s perspective, it is easy to sit in our position as fans and give our opinions of what we want to see the upcoming season. However, this is the part of the year where we also get to fantasize about what might be. A healthy dose of day dreaming of what might be is what we need to get through the long off-season. And so, without further ado, here is my analysis of a few potential off-season acquisitions.
Players the Cardinals need to target:
- Craig Kimbrel
Kimbrel is a proven closer. Last year Bud Norris assumed the role of closer after much uncertainty surrounded the position entering the season. An opening day signing of Greg Holland proved to be a massive disappointment and Holland could not seem to generate outs. So, what is different about Kimbrel that makes him a good target?
In 2018 Kimbrel notched 42 saves with Boston. He is primarily throwing two pitches, a four-seam fastball around 98 mph, and a knuckle curveball around 87 mph. He also does have a change-up that in the past has also been very effective.
When the Cardinals signed Holland, he had not had a job for a few months. When a pitcher comes off of a season like the one Holland had in Colorado, the next year can be unpredictable. I think that his time off coupled with his complex mechanics threw off a lot of his delivery. I believe the Cardinals need to make an attempt to sign Kimbrel in the first few weeks of the free agency window. Give him the opportunity to know what he is walking into, and make it known that you want him as a part of the team. The unease of not having a contract should not be given the chance to develop into a problem. Then the closing position can have an answer before walking into the winter meetings.
Before I show my next pick, let’s look at some numbers.
Kimbrel has recorded 333 saves on 367 opportunities. He currently holds the record for 300 saves in a career in the fewest games. He is certainly a big-name star, and at the age of 30 also has been selected as an all-star 7 times. He has thrown at least 900 pitches in every season since his rookie season in 2011. On average he faces around 250 batters per season and carries a career ERA of 1.91. He has never allowed more that 20 earned runs in a single season.
While his delivery seems strange, he does have a track record that is proven. Teams will be willing to pay to have him as a closer, but the biggest problem will be prying him away from Boston. In 2018, Kimbrel was paid 13 million dollars. I feel as if the move may be expensive, but a 2-year deal in the 30-million-dollar range certainly should not be out of the question when it comes to acquiring the proven closer.
- Nolan Arenado
I know, this isn’t a free agent. There is most likely going to be other teams willing to open up their pocket books for Machado, and if the price is too high, then we should be ready to look elsewhere. Besides, Machado wants to play shortstop, and Paul Dejong has made a case to be the starting shortstop for St. Louis.
Arenado is coming off of a season where he finished with the most home runs (38) in the National League, edging Matt Carpenter and Christian Yelich (36), and Trevor Story (37). All four of these players have been in talks as MVP candidates, and they have earned it. My previous article discussed trading Matt Carpenter if the price is right, but imagine a team that had Carpenter, and Arenado in the lineup, plus the pop of Ozuna, and Dejong, and possibly O’Neil. That is power and performance that could be explosive in the 2019 season.
It has been no secret that Arenado is tired of losing with the Rockies. He is entering his final year of arbitration, and with so many teams focused on landing Machado, Arenado may be a player to pursue heavily. With the expansive list of young pitchers, and several position players that have tons of upward potential, a trade is completely a possibility. While he would be a free agent following the 2019 season, it could be a good move. By placing him with this team as a veteran leader under the guidance of Mike Shildt, he may want to stay for a few more years under a new and worthwhile contract.
The numbers don’t do justice to what Arenado brings to the dish. When placing him up against an old-fashioned eye test, his defensive range and skills are dazzling. This, coupled with his offensive prowess he is the potential star power player that St Louis fans are calling for. When looking at the numbers, he is only 27 years old. He is consistently batting around .300 and has plated over 100 RBI’s each full season he has played. He is a 4 time All-Star and silver slugger and MVP candidate in each of his last four years as well. He is arguably the best third baseman in the league, and brings more value than Donaldson, or any of the other free agent third baseman this year.
With the infield in question, Arenado looks to be the best answer. If the Cardinals want to be contenders next season, it is going to take a big move. If Arenado really wants out of Colorado, it would be great to give him a new home in St. Louis. I believe this move is better than a Machado deal.
Players that the Cardinals should consider:
The following players could answer some problems that the Cardinals have. But there are some questions that should also make the organization hesitant to pull the trigger.
- Bryce Harper
This is the player who has become the face of the upcoming off-season. The rumors were swirling that Harper’s upcoming wound top size and maybe even the length of Giancarlo Stanton’s. With all of that value, he should be the player that the Cardinals go for, right?
It may be the biggest off-season acquisition for someone this year, I’m just not convinced it is the right move for St. Louis.
Harper does carry some serious pop in his bat. The Cardinals are currently full at the right field position. With players such as Fowler and O’Neil, there is already huge potential at a much lower price than the huge paycheck that Harper is set to draw. It also raises the question of what to do with all of those players?
Looking at the corner outfield positions, it seems comparing Ozuna and Harper who have similar numbers on their best years was a good idea. The problem is, he wasn’t all that more effective offensively than Ozuna was last season. Fans had mixed feelings on Ozuna as he had a down year this season, but so did Harper.
| Player | Batting Average | Home Runs | Strikeouts | On Base Plus Slugging | RBI’s | Total Bases |
| Harper – 2015 | .330 | 42 | 131 | 1.109 | 99 | 338 |
| Harper- 2018 | .249 | 34 | 169 | .889 | 100 | 273 |
| Ozuna-2017 | .312 | 37 | 144 | .924 | 124 | 336 |
| Ozuna-2018 | .280 | 23 | 110 | .758 | 88 | 252 |
The biggest question to ponder has to be if Harper will have more years like his 2015 MVP run, or more years like 2018. Personally, I think that he has the potential, but the risk may not be worth the potential price tag.
All things considered, if we got Harper for the right price, and he were to have another couple of seasons like 2015, I would not be upset. However, if we brought him in for a 6-8-year contract and he under performs like Fowler has, then it could be a bust that hurts us deep into the future. The loss of Oscar Taveras is still greatly looming, but it should not be something that pushes the organization to attempt to fill that void. It is what lead to Jason Heyward, and then Fowler. This is a deal that either becomes a huge disappointment or launches us into a new chapter in Cardinals history.
An honorable mention that I feel needs a place here is Jon Jay. He is a good outfielder with a consistent bat. The reason I cannot give him his own nomination is because I fear he would be just another name in a log jammed right field. Jon Jay could be a good player to bring to the roster, but it would mean we need to dump a player or two that are already slotted in right. I don’t feel it would fix anything, but it wouldn’t make it worse either.
- Manny Machado:
Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Similar to Harper, it seems as if the pop may not be worth the price. With the money being discussed about Manny Machado, I simply do not think that the value is there considering what other teams may be willing to pay him. The Cardinals not only should, but probably will extend the shortstop a descent offer. There really isn’t much more to say that wasn’t covered before the trade deadline. Machado is a plus defender and carries some offensive power that really could help the Cardinals next season. However, he has never had a season batting average over .300. He did however hit 30 plus home runs each of the last 4 seasons. Machado is only 26 years old, but at the right price could be a fantastic pickup for the Cardinals.
- Josh Donaldson:
This is a player who could potentially have a massive upswing. He is coming off of a year where he spent a large chunk of the season on the DL. Like the other infielders listed above, he is a plus defender that could really benefit the infield. In 2015 he had his MVP season sporting 41 home runs and also 123 RBI’s. This is similar to the Bryce Harper situation where if he has more years like 2015, the deal would be incredible for this team. With his injuries looming, he could come at a lower cost than the other infielders, however may carry a higher risk.
Players that the Cardinals need to avoid acquiring this off-season:
This is a list that could be a mile long. I decided to focus my attention on former Cardinals that may entice a deal from the front office. The bottom line is that there are a lot of options this off-season that are very good. If the Cardinals want to be competitive they can, and they should be aggressive. Looking to new and fresh options could energize this team.
- Adam Wainwright
I discussed this in my previous article, but I feel as if there just isn’t room on this roster for Waino as a starter. This is by no means an easy decision, but the Cardinals need to let Adam walk away. If he still wants to pitch as a starter, it needs to be out of St Louis. As the Cardinals look for answers in the 2019 season, the former Ace just simply cannot be taking a roster spot from the up and coming talent in the younger arms. Adam hasn’t had a healthy year since 2014. The bottom line is that it is time to move on. If there was to be a deal here, it needs to be a relief role.
- Bud Norris
Fans will be happy to see this name listed. This is not an attack on Norris, but simply stating that I don’t think he is a long-term solution to any of the team problems. Norris had a very good year in St Louis as he slid into the closing role. The problem seems to be that Bud loses effectiveness as the season crosses into late August September. It quickly seemed like we could no longer trust him in high leverage situations. This is someone who hasn’t remained on one teams roster since becoming a reliever for any significant amount of time. Norris gave us a good year, but I would fear that was all it was, one good year.
- Matt Adams
Big City. I loved having him back in the Arch City for a part of this year. I don’t believe that it is a permanent stay however. Since leaving the Cardinals, he has proven to be a great option at first base. The problem lies in that there isn’t much else to do with him. To me Luke Voit and Matt Adams had similar roles with St Louis. Breaking into the big-league roster will be difficult given the current state of the team. If he wants to play, he may need to go somewhere else. With Carpenter looking as the Cardinals long-term first baseman, it is time to say good-bye to Big City.
Many opportunities will be presented this off-season. Will John Mozeliak lead us into a huge off-season? Or is this just another year of hoping that ends with underwhelming deals.
As always, thanks for reading.
