The 2018 season is over, and Cardinals fans are once again clamoring for a big bat in the middle of the order. But what I’m curious to find out is whether we already have one… Honestly, I think you do. Whether he plays shortstop or third base, we need to put more trust into Paul DeJong.
One of the most exciting players to watch recently has been Trevor Story from the Colorado Rockies. You’d be hard pressed to find a baseball fan who doesn’t think Trevor Story is a stud player. Something occurred to me while watching the Wild Card game between the Rockies and the Cubs last night. Paul DeJong and Trevor Story are incredibly similar players.
Aaron Mullins on Twitter
Paul DeJong reminds me a lot of Trevor Story… Solid rookie with some pop. Regressed but still effective in 2nd season. Story really put it together this year… And DeJong could do the same next year. He genuinely could be a solid #3 hitter moving forward. #STLCards
Let’s take a look at their rookie campaigns.
Trevor Story (2016)
97 G | 27 HR | 72 RBI | 35 BB | 130 SO | .272 BA | .341 OBP | .567 SLG | .909 OPS | 122 OPS+ | 3.2 WAR
Paul DeJong (2017)
108 G | 25 HR | 65 RBI | 21 BB | 124 SO | .285 BA | .325 OBP | .532 SLG | .857 OPS | 121 OPS+ | 2.7 WAR
Do you see a huge difference? Not really. Both players were incredibly productive in their rookie seasons. Story finished 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2016, while Paul DeJong finished 2nd in 2017.
Trevor Story (2016)
823 Innings | .977 FLD PCT | 10 E | 4 DRS | 0.9 dWAR |
Paul DeJong (2017)
741.1 Innings | .975 FLD PCT | 9 E | 0 DRS | 0.4 dWAR |
Neither player was “bad” defensively, but neither player was near the top of most defensive leaderboards either. As we take a look at their sophomore season, we see the similarities continue both offensively and defensively.
Trevor Story (2017)
145 G | 24 HR | 82 RBI | 49 BB | 191 SO | .239 BA | .308 OBP | .457 SLG | .765 OPS | 84 OPS + | 2.6 WAR
Paul DeJong (2018)
115 G | 19 HR | 68 RBI | 36 BB | 123 SO | .241 BA | .313 OBP | .433 SLG | .746 OPS | 101 OPS + | 3.8 WAR
As you can see, both players took a step back. DeJong ended up on the DL for a considerable amount of time with a hand injury, but nevertheless produced for the Cardinals in 2018. Story and DeJong have both struggled with strikeouts throughout their careers, but both players did improve on their walk rates moving into their second seasons. Now let’s take a look at their defensive improvements.
Trevor Story (2017)
1185 Innings | .982 FLD PCT | 11 E | 11 DRS | 1.8 dWAR
Paul DeJong (2018)
1005.1 Innings | .974 FLD PCT | 12 E | 14 DRS | 2.1 dWAR
Talk about a dramatic improvement from both players. Both players jumped up to 4th in their position in DRS in their respective years. Seriously, the similarities are astounding.
But here is where it gets interesting, and why I believe that DeJong can be a legitimate middle of the order guy for the Cardinals in 2019. Like we have mentioned, the two players are almost identical from an offensive and defensive standpoint, and if the trend continues, DeJong could be ready for a monster season. Let’s see what Trevor Story did in his 3rd year and we can see whether it’s realistic for DeJong to replicate.
Trevor Story (2018)
157 G | 37 HR | 108 RBI | 47 BB | 161 SO | .291 BA | .348 OBP | .567 SLG | .914 OPS | 127 OPS + | 5.6 WAR
If Paul DeJong gets even close to what Trevor Story did in his third season, the Cardinals will be in good shape offensively. I’d argue that DeJong has a similar if not better upside over Story.
In terms of power, it’s very close. DeJong hits a home run every 19.4 AB and Story hits a home runs every 16.7 AB. DeJong and Story both strike out a lot, but Dejong does get a slight edge in strikeout rate, but Story also walks more than DeJong. But let’s say DeJong manages to get 550 AB this season. How would his season look? Here is what I’m thinking.
Paul Dejong (2019 projected)
148 G | 31 HR | 91 RBI | 42 BB | 132 SO | .283 BA
Honestly, that would be a successful season in my opinion. It could be even better than this, but I think this is a very realistic look at what Paul DeJong might do in 2019. His defense could take a step back but I’d argue that DeJong is probably a better defender over Story.
One thing that could hinder DeJong defensively is a move to 3B. Recently I wrote a piece on why the Cardinals should trade for Andrelton Simmons of LAA. If this trade happens, DeJong moves to 3B. You have to remember that even though DeJong started off as a third baseman, he hasn’t played there full time for a couple of seasons now. There could be some growing pains there. But, offensively I truly believe that Paul DeJong could be your #3 hitter at some point in the season. I’m not saying he and Story will mirror each other for the rest of their careers, but I do expect a bounceback from DeJong. Will it be to the same level as Story? Possibly. But DeJong was arguably more impactful during his sophomore season, meaning he won’t have to improve quite as much this year.
However it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong about DeJong. I predicted this past off-season that DeJong would blast 40 home runs. As you can see that didn’t happen. Injury or not, I don’t think DeJong would have gotten quite to 40. I think moving forward DeJong will be a solid .270 hitter with 28-35 HR potential over his next few seasons. And if that’s the case, I won’t be upset. I’d like to see his plate discipline improve in 2019, but his power is legit, and his defense is much improved.
I’m looking forward to seeing his 2019 production.
What are your thoughts? Tweet me @AaronArchCity
Thanks for reading!
Aaron M.
