The Cardinals currently sit 5.5 games back behind Chicago and 4 games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central Division. While it is still possible for the Cardinals to make another incredible run towards the NL Central lead, it seems more likely that the Cardinals will hold an NL Wild Card spot. The Wild Card race in the National League is close, but the Cardinals still hold the 2nd spot. They sit 1 game ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and 2 games ahead of Arizona. I’m curious though. If the Cardinals manage to hold onto a Wild Card spot… Who do you start? There are a number of potential scenarios that you can play out, but I think the overall consensus would show that it comes down to two players.
Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty
Two incredible pitchers known for two different styles of pitching.
Mikolas is known for his precision throwing multiple pitches to contact in order to get outs. Flaherty relies more on his swing and miss stuff. Each pitcher has great stuff, but uses their stuff in their own ways to get outs.
Miles Mikolas – 14 – 4 | 3.06 ERA | 28 GS | 173.2 IP | 27 BB | 119 SO | 3.40 FIP | 127 ERA + | 1.13 WHIP |
Jack Flaherty – 8 – 6 | 2.83 ERA | 23 GS | 127.1 IP | 46 BB | 154 SO | 3.79 FIP | 137 ERA + | 1.05 WHIP |
Flaherty most certainly gets an edge when it comes to strikeout potential with a team leading 10.9 SO/9 where Mikolas sits at 6.4 SO/9. Where Mikolas gets an edge is with his walk rate, a NL Leading 1.4 BB/9 compared to Flaherty at 3.3 BB/9. Mikolas does give up plenty of hits with his pitch to contact approach. In fact he has given up more base hits than any starter in the NL, but his H/9 rate of 8.8 isn’t too terrible given how many innings he has pitched. Mikolas also pitches closer to his FIP rating with a difference of just 0.34 compared to ERA where Flaherty seems to get some defensive breaks with a FIP rating 0.96 higher than his ERA.
Aaron Mullins on Twitter
Really wishing Mikolas hadn’t gotten pushed back tonight… 8 walks issued by Cardinal pitchers… Mikolas had 4 walks in the entire month of August… #STLCards
Both pitchers have tremendous stuff. According to Fangraphs, here is where their pitches rank in terms on pitch quality in the National League among starters with 120 IP.
Fastball
10th – Jack Flaherty – 10.3
16th – Miles Mikolas – 6.6
Slider
2nd – Miles Mikolas – 20.0
7th – Jack Flaherty – 10.8
Curveball
20th – Jack Flaherty – 0.2
31st – Miles Mikolas – -2.9
Change-Up
17th – Jack Flaherty – 0.1
26th – Miles Mikolas – -2.2
Fangraphs also lists Mikolas at 7th in terms of overall value, with Jack Flaherty coming in at 21st.
The way things sit, it’s very possible that the Cardinals will face a member of the NL Central in the Wild Card Game. It will most likely be Milwaukee, but in the off chance it’s Chicago, how do these pitchers match up?
Milwaukee Brewers
Miles Mikolas – 4 Starts | 24.2 IP | 2 BB | 22 SO | 23 H | 4 HR | 1.01 WHIP | 4.01 ERA |
Jack Flaherty – 3 Starts | 18.0 IP | 6 BB | 29 SO | 10 H | 1 HR | 0.89 WHIP | 1.00 ERA |
The biggest downfall for Mikolas against the Brewers has been the longball. He has limited baserunners all season by limiting walks, but does give up a fair share of hits against Milwaukee. A low WHIP, but the longballs have inflated his ERA to over 4.
Flaherty on the other hand has pitched incredibly well against Milwaukee allowing only 10 hits in 3 starts while striking out guys at an amazing clip of 14.50 SO/9.
If the Cardinals were to face Milwaukee I’d personally start Flaherty.
Chicago Cubs
Miles Mikolas – 3 Starts | 18.0 IP | 3 BB | 12 SO | 19 H | 1 HR | 1.22 WHIP | 2.00 ERA |
Jack Flaherty – 2 Starts | 10.0 IP | 7 BB | 16 SO | 4 H | 1 HR | 1.10 WHIP | 0.90 ERA |
This one is a little bit tougher. On paper it looks like Flaherty should be the choice again, but something alarming is that in those two starts for Flaherty he averaged over 100 pitches thrown, and was only able to get through 10 innings. Mikolas averaged just 86 pitches per outing and got through more innings per start.
Theoretically if the Brewers were to overtake the Cubs, the Cardinals would be faced with an intriguing choice here. I’d personally go Mikolas in order to save the bullpen that has been struggling recently. but Flaherty is also quite deserving. This could be looked at as more of a push.
There isn’t too big of a sample size against other opponents currently in the hunt, but I will say that both pitchers have their strengths and weaknesses against those teams. Only Mikolas has multiple starts against any of the other teams in contention (COL). There are also instances against these clubs where the “best” choice could also be one of the other starters. Gomber, Gant, and Weaver have all had good outings against the same teams. Chicago seems to have locked up the NL Central, giving the Cardinals a game against Milwaukee. In that case… I gotta go with Flaherty simply based on the matchup.
The issue with Flaherty is his walks and his pitch count. He does have great swing and miss stuff, but if his pitch count gets too high, he could be nearing 100 pitches by just the fifth inning. The fact that Flaherty is just a rookie doesn’t really phase me. He goes out to the mound with a poise and demeanor of a seasoned veteran. He gives off the confidence and vibe that Chris Carpenter often displayed.
Regardless of who gets the nod, the Cardinals will have a solid guy on the mound capable of giving them a win. The defense has been much improved over the course of the season and has 2 potential Gold Glovers in Kolten Wong and Harrison Bader to help prevent runs. I would also love to see the Cardinals make another run at the end of the season and use the final series against Chicago to catapult themselves into an NL Central winner and just skip the wild card game.
That would just be great.
What do you think? Send some tweets my way @AaronArchCity
Thanks for Reading!
Aaron M.
