With the recent firing of Manager Mike Matheny, the Cardinals front office sent a message. They are tired of the status quo so they made a change. Within just a week, it is evident that Matheny was certainly not the only problem. There is only so much that Mike Shildt can do as the interim manager.
What’s the problem? Well, I have 2 major issues with this club.
1. Fundamentals
My goodness. Where to begin with fundamentals… or I guess the lack thereof. This team currently leads the Major Leagues with 80 errors. The next worst is Texas… with 70. How bad is that number? Well in 2017, there were 6 teams (MIA, CLE, COL, MIN, KC, LAA) who had 80 errors or less for the entire season. Last season the fundamentals of the Cardinals came into question, but they had 94 errors for the entire year. This season they will surely surpass 94. In some cases, they are trading poor defense for offense (Jose Martinez), but what do they need to do to fix it?
Errors | dWAR (Baseball Reference)
Gyorko : 10 | 0.7
Munoz : 9 | -0.7
Carpenter : 8 | 0.7
DeJong : 7 | 0.5
Martinez : 7 | -1.3
Pham : 5 | -0.6
Fowler : 4 | -0.9
As you can see, you can have errors and still be a plus defender. Now the obvious downfall is clearly Martinez who has been a defensive liability thus far, but you knew what you had. He has never been considered an elite defender. He had a -1.1 dWAR last season, but his bat has kept him in the lineup. What I do find surprising is how much Tommy Pham has dropped off from a year ago. In 2017 his dWAR was 0.8 compared to his -0.6 this year. Gyorko despite having the most errors on the team still has a positive dWAR after a solid 2017 as well. At 3B he is definitely your best option. DeJong has struggled since returning from the DL, but still has had a decent defensive campaign. Munoz has done well offensively for the club, but clearly his defense in lacking. Unfortunately with Fowler you get what you get. He has only had 2 seasons with a positive dWAR (0.4-2010, 0.3-2016) in his whole career. It is similar to Martinez in that you won’t get much defense, but Fowler has slumped massively when it comes to offensive production, losing time to Harrison Bader.
Speaking of Harrison Bader, he currently is tied for the NL lead in dWAR with Lorenzo Cain at 1.6 on the year. This is despite only playing 420.2 innings compared to Cain’s 678 innings played. If he finishes this season in the lead he will be the first Cardinal to lead the NL in dWAR since Brendan Ryan did it with a 3.2 dWAR back in 2009. Another solid defensive contributor has been Kolten Wong. He is one of the best 2B in the game when it comes to defensive ability and so far has a 1.5 dWAR just behind teammate Harrison Bader. Both Wong and Bader have been solid defensive contributors but they cannot completely fix the season.
What can you do to fix this problem? One rumor that has been popping up more and more with the trade deadline approaching is to trade Jose Martinez to an American League team to use as a DH. This could be a viable option in terms of fixing fundamentals. According to FanGraphs, Jose Martinez currently has a -6 DRS at 1B. If you’re going to make this move, Carpenter needs to be the everyday 1B. Oddly enough, Carpenter had 8 DRS at 3B while only 3 DRS at 1B, but Gyorko also has a solid DRS at 3B with 7. Your ideal infield looks like this.
1B – Carpenter | 3 DRS
2B – Wong | 13 DRS
SS – DeJong | 2 DRS
3B – Gyorko | 7 DRS
The outfield is a different story. You really only have one good option which is Bader. Ozuna had a gold glove season only a year ago, but is certainly having a different season in 2018. Pham has dropped off significantly as well, and Fowler is doing what Fowler does. Your best bet is to do this.
LF – Ozuna | 3 DRS
CF – Bader | 8 DRS
RF – O’Neill | 1 DRS
Remember this is based on defense. And while we haven’t seen much of O’Neill he has 2 DRS in LF and 1 DRS in RF compared to Pham at -7 DRS in CF and Fowler at -5 DRS in RF.
I’ve said this for a couple seasons, but I’d love to pursue a trade with LAA for Andrelton Simmons. He currently sits a 12 DRS and is having an under the radar season offensively as well. As you can see, the infield has actually been pretty good defensively, and you’d have to take reps away from DeJong and Gyorko unless one of them is moved in a deal. The Cardinals have multiple young outfielders ready to get reps at the Major League level, so I can see the Cardinals moving on from guys like Fowler and potentially even Pham to let the young guys take over. Given how this season has gone, unless the Cardinals make up ground quickly before the deadline, I can see them selling.
2. Bullpen
Oh the bullpen. Hasn’t it been such a good year? You really only have a couple guys in the bullpen that you can trust. And neither one of them were on the team last season. Jordan Hicks has had a couple rough outings of late, but he and Bud Norris have been the only true bright spots from the bullpen. Guys like Mayers and Brebbia have been moderately decent, but it’s been tough to count of either in tough situations. The Cardinals also have a couple arms who are coming off of good seasons, only to have them struggle this season (Lyons, Tuivailala, Bowman). Then you have guys you have brought in, only for them to seemingly implode (Holland, Gregerson). It’s been a rough year for the Cardinals Bullpen.
The Cardinals currently ranks 24th in the Majors (12th in NL) in bullpen ERA at 4.52 on the season. This number looks even worse compared to their rotation ERA which is 4th in the Majors at 3.51. The starters are keeping them in games, only for the bullpen to essentially squander them away.
WAR | ERA+ (Baseball Reference)
Bud Norris : 0.4 | 130
Jordan Hicks : 0.2 | 111
John Brebbia : 0.1 | 96
Mike Mayers : 0.2 | 106
Sam Tuivailala : 0.0 | 99
Greg Holland : -1.2 | 50
Brett Cecil : 0.0 | 114
Matt Bowman : -0.6 | 63
Tyler Lyons : -0.5 | 59
Luke Gregerson : -0.3 | 53
So essentially you have a couple guys pitching well, a few around average, and some absolutely terrible seasons. What I find interesting is that in terms of ERA+, Brett Cecil is 2nd on your team. Another interesting note to add is that as a reliever, John Gant has been one of your most solid contributors, bolstering a 1.72 ERA over 15.2 innings. I didn’t include him here only because right now he is in the rotation until Michael Wacha returns.
Guys like Brad Hand and Kelvin Herrera have already swapped teams giving the Cardinals less options to pursue. I’m still a fan of going after Zach Britton from the Orioles. He is a solid left handed reliever who has shown he can be elite at the Major League level. Your next option is to cut your losses and bring up your young talent.
This team has talent. I don’t think the offense is the issue like many others believe. Guys like Carpenter and Wong have begun to turn it around, and you have other players who have shown they can play before. These next couple weeks will determine what the Cardinals will do with the season, but they need to focus on playing better baseball with better fundamentals. If they do that, the Cards become a better team. Adding a bullpen arm or even a big bat will help, but defense needs to improve. Too many games have been lost on poor base running and defense.
Thanks for Reading
Aaron M.
What are your thoughts? Tweet me @AaronArchCity
