I’m still one of the few that believes in Greg Holland. After signing a one year, $14M contract, Cardinals fans thought they had their closer! And so did I. But unfortunately… Holland hasn’t quite panned out.
But don’t worry. I think his early struggles are exactly what he needs to regain form. Let me explain.
So far this season… It’s been rough.
Through 12.1 innings, Holland has given up 10 Earned runs for an ERA of 7.30. His walk rate is sitting at 10.6 BB/9, the highest of his career, while his strikeout rate is lower than ever with just a 6.6 K/9.
I know. I know. Get to the point.
I’ve gotten off the “he didn’t get spring training” bandwagon. On the 11th Inning Stretch podcast with Paul Eppy, I said he wouldn’t be ready to return to the closer role until at least the “middle of May”. Now May is almost over and not only has he not closed a game, he’s given Cardinal Nation no sign of hope.
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Here is where I think he can turn it around. If you look at last season, Holland led the league in saves for Colorado, saving 41 games. His ERA was a respectable 3.61, and he struck out 11 per 9 innings while only walking 4.1 per 9. There is an anomaly in his season. Take a look at the month of August. On August 3rd, his ERA was just 1.60, but on the 28th of that month it was a 3.97. For his ERA to jump do dramatically this late into the season, you could say he had his struggles. In only 9.1 innings he gave up 14 ER. So if you think he has been bad so far this season, this stretch last season makes him look a bit better. He had a 13.50 ERA in the month of August 2017 and also had a .333 opposing batting average.
This season he hasn’t been as bad as this. But it gives me a reason to think he can get out of it. He has gone through a rough patch like this before. His current opposing batting average sits at .280. Not good, but still better than .333. Last season, he threw strikes 63.3% of the time, and so far this season he is down to 59.4%. So that gives you a reason why his walk rate is currently up. If he can’t get ahead in counts, he has to groove in pitches that the hitters are taking advantage of. His command has struggled thus far and could be a huge factor in him regaining some valuable innings.
His track record speaks for himself. He has battled adversity before, but it doesn’t help when he hits a wall at the beginning of the year. Fans everywhere clamour for his release.
Cardinal Metrics on Twitter
Greg Holland is no longer in the spring training phase, he’s just bad. And for some reason, he keeps pitching in high leverage situations. Just terrible. #stlcards
Mo’s Algorithm on Twitter
tHe CaRdInAlS sHoUlD cUt GrEg HoLlAnD
Matt Breen on Twitter
Cardinals fans booed Greg Holland as he walked to the dugout after allowing go-ahead, pinch-hit single to Jorge Alfaro. I thought they didn’t boo here?
It’s understandable to be frustrated, especially given his lucrative contract opposed to our current closer Bud Norris. Signing Norris makes the club look like a genius, whereas the Holland signing makes many laugh. I’m disappointed in the way some fans handle his struggles, but I don’t understand where it’s coming from. On my Cardinals Podcast “The Musial Suspects” we will discuss Greg Holland and where he should fit moving forward. On our Twitter page, we opened a poll asking where you think his ERA will be at the end of the year. Vote below!
The Musial Suspects on Twitter
What’s up y’all? Talking point the upcoming episode. Vote below. What will Greg Holland’s ERA be at the end of the year? Aaron and Brad both say lower! @ArchCityMedia @11InningStretch @Moz_Algorithm @birdsonabatshow @ballparkbeef @IvesBaseballSTL @lbundy90
I think Holland will turn it around. With the emergence of Jordan Hicks and Bud Norris, Holland shouldn’t be put into many (if any) high leverage situations for the time being. Right now, mop up duty seems to be the fit. He needs work and that’s where he can iron stuff out. I’m not giving up hope yet. Until he quits, or gets released, I will support him and the Cardinals organization. I’ll get frustrated just like everyone else, but I’m not giving up on him yet.
Thanks for Reading
Aaron M.
Follow me on Twitter – @AaronArchCity
