Spring Training has finally begun, and the St. Louis Cardinals are at their usual preseason headquarters in Jupiter, Florida. Coaches and players, new and returning, have gathered at the facility with an optimistic outlook to the season ahead. The club had a sporadic off-season this year, which consisted of signing 3 free agents and completing 4 trades. Amidst the new faces this season are Marcell Ozuna, Dominic Leone, Luke Gregerson, and Bud Norris. In addition, the Cardinals received two infield prospects in the Piscotty deal–Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock. While we may not see either of those prospects on the big league roster this season, they are an upgrade for the minor league affiliates.
Overall, it’s hard to be mad at the array of players that were acquired this off-season. The front office accomplished exactly what they desperately needed to, which included adding an impact bat and creating a more reliable bullpen. The more important of the two, in my opinion, was putting together a bullpen with multiple options for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. The Cardinals may not have spent the money on a big time closer, like nearly everyone demanded. However, they are now equipped with a list of considerable bullpen options. This will not only improve the later innings, but will also help the younger starters limit their pitch counts.
The Cardinal’s #1 prospect, Alex Reyes, should return around May or June as he finishes his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Needless to say—it will be interesting to see what role he ends up in. If he’s added to the rotation, then who gets the boot? Last week, (GM) Michael Girsch commented on the future situation on the Bernie Miklasz Show saying, “it’d be difficult to see Alex Reyes in a closer role.” Although that doesn’t exempt his chances of being a long-relief option in the bullpen, I think the club will make the right choice and squeeze him into the rotation. Yes—even if that means using one of those 6-man rotations that other organizations have proposed.
Now that Winter transactions are presumably over for the Cardinals, many analysts and fans have shared their disgruntled attitude towards the front office. Majority of Cardinal Nation is concerned about the organization not adding another big name to coincide with Ozuna. What some fans may not understand is that the club has in fact opened multiple doors for the coaching staff to work with. Not to forget, they opened these doors without spending inflated prices for players like Wade Davis or Eric Hosmer. Are they saving salary for the upcoming free agent classes? It’s difficult to tell what exactly is going on in the mind of the front office–only time will tell. What we do know is that the Cardinals now have several respectable options out of the bullpen; as well as an impact bat that provides relief to the lineup.
Despite the questions that still surround majority of the Cardinal’s roster, analysts and baseball enthusiasts have been given the challenging task of creating their own projections. In general, projections are one of the most difficult exercises to find success in; and this roster doesn’t make it any easier. Difficulty aside, creating projections is an interesting, and fun, way to measure your ability to forecast future production of teams and players. Numerous projections are currently available on websites like Fangraphs, fantasy baseball apps, and social media accounts.
Considering the amount of irritated fans, I felt obligated to create my own projections to help alleviate some of the stress. And if you can’t seem to wrap your mind around my projections, I decided to include other’s projections as well. The following projections are courtesy of Dan Szymborski (ESPN Analyst), Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast), @GMGirsch (Twitter), and Scott Tobben (Writer for ArchCity Sports).
Dexter Fowler (RF): 485 PA | .260 AVG | 13 HR | 39 XBH | 52 RBI | 68 R | 10 SB | 70 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Dexter Fowler Prediction: .280/.394/.465 20 HR 70 RBI 14 SB 90 BB
“.265 Avg, but I want to see his OBP .360-.370…12 HR, and would like to see him get back to 20 SB.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Tommy Pham (CF): 570 PA | .284 AVG | 27 HR | 57 XBH | 81 RBI | 97 R | 28 SB | 74 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Tommy Pham Prediction: .301/.399/.501 29 HR 90 RBI 25 SB 80 BB Gold Glove
“I could live with .275 (Avg), 25 HR, 75 RBI, and good defense.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
“I think .290 (Avg), 25 HR, 90 RBI…and he’s going to get 30 SB”
-Benjie, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Matt Carpenter (1B): 610 PA | .270 AVG | 33 HR | 65 XBH | 92 RBI | 82 R | 8 SB | 95 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Matt Carpenter Prediction: .257/.388/.453 24 HR 73 RBI 1 SB 93 BB
“I want .275 (Avg), I want that .375 OBP, 22 HR, and if he’s going to bat third, he better drive in 90.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Marcell Ozuna (LF): 655 PA | .296 AVG | 42 HR | 68 XBH | 110 RBI | 94 R | 2 SB | 63 BB
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“Offensively, Marcell Ozuna will prove to be a star–35 HR, 118 RBI and .310 Avg.”
-Scott Tobben (Writer for ArchCity Sports)
“I would like to see him hit .285 Avg, 30 HR, drive-in 100 runs, and play good defense.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Paul DeJong (SS): 615 PA | .276 AVG | 29 HR | 63 XBH | 89 RBI | 77 R | 6 SB | 40 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Paul DeJong Prediction: .289/.334/.528 32 HR 83 RBI 135 OPS+ 25 BB 3 SB
“Paul DeJong will continue to impress–.275 Avg, 26 HR, and 84 RBI”
-Scott Tobben (Writer for ArchCity Sports)
“.260 Avg, 22 HR, 75 RBI”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Yadier Molina (C): 565 PA | .282 AVG | 14 HR | 42 XBH | 64 RBI | 66 R | 3 SB | 34 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Yadier Molina Prediction: .281/.320/.384 10 HR 62 RBI 9 SB 30 BB
“So let’s set the bar at .270 (Avg), 15 HR, and 80 RBI for Yadi”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
“I think he can do more than that…I’d go as far as 20 HR”
-Benjie, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Jedd Gyorko (3B): 545 PA | .256 AVG | 24 HR | 45 XBH | 76 RBI | 65 R | 0 SB | 48 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Jedd Gyorko Prediction: .258/.335/.465 25 HR 71 RBI 41 BB 2 SB
“Because he’s going to be moved around a lot…I’ll take 20 HR, 65-70 RBIs.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Kolten Wong (2B): 510 PA | .291 AVG | 9 HR | 39 XBH | 52 RBI | 58 R | 11 SB | 57 BB
Michael Girsch on Twitter
Kolten Wong Prediction: .309/.380/.420 7 HR 60 RBI 53 BB 10 SB I know @The_Ryan_Shull will like this prediction.
“I’d love to see Kolten Wong hit .285 (Avg), 10 HR. I’m not worried about RBIs…I’d love to see him get to 10 or more SB.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Carlos Martinez: 33 GS | 18-6 | 202 IP | 3.24 ERA | 9.67 K/9 (217 K) | 3.12 BB/9 (70 BB) | 0.93 HR/9 (21 HR) | .228 AVG
“Carlos Martinez will finally emerge as the staff’s ace–thinking 19-8 with an ERA around 3.30.”
-Scott Tobben (Writer for ArchCity Sports)
“I think the important things for Carlos are: can he get his overall ERA be around 3.00, I like the 200 innings, I like the over 200 strikeouts.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Michael Wacha: 29 GS | 14-8 | 182 IP | 4.10 ERA | 8.46 K/9 (171 K) | 2.77 BB/9 (56 BB) | 0.94 HR/9 (19 HR) | .255 AVG
“Michael Wacha should be solid,15-9 with an ERA in the high 3’s.”
-Scott Tobben (Writer for ArchCity Sports)
“I really do think this is the year that Wacha wins 15 games; and keeps the ERA in the 3’s.”
-Benjie, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
Luke Weaver: 26 GS | 12-8 | 148 IP | 3.95 ERA | 9.18 K/9 (151 K) | 2.67 BB/9 (44 BB) | 1.09 HR/9 (18 HR) | .248 AVG
“I’m going to guess he’s going to get 15 wins or over.”
-Benjie, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
26 GS | 11-8 | 3.77 ERA | 135 IP | 121 K | 34 BB | 15 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
Adam Wainwright: 14 GS (42 G) | 8-7 | 135 IP | 3.67 ERA | 6.80 K/9 (102 K) | 2.87 BB/9 (43 BB) | 1.07 HR/9 (16 HR) | .272 AVG
“If he doesn’t have an ERA better than 5 and WHIP under 1.50–then he’s not going to pitch.”
-Jim, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
“He’s probably going to have a short leash…and if he doesn’t do well–then he’ll be in the bullpen”
-Benjie, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
22 GS | 9-8 | 4.09 ERA | 129 IP | 99 K | 39 BB | 13 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
Miles Mikolas: 31 GS | 14-11 | 194 IP | 4.13 ERA | 7.14 K/9 (154 K) | 2.27 BB/9 (49 BB) | 1.16 HR/9 (25 HR) | .267 AVG
“It’s really hard to guess what he’s going to do out of Japan. What we hope that he does is 15 or more wins, we hope his ERA stays low in the 3’s (like 2.90 or 3.00), we hope he throws 200 innings (which I don’t know)…it’s really hard to guess.”
-Benjie, Two Birds on a Bat (Podcast)
26 GS | 9-8 | 4.13 ERA | 149 IP | 127 K | 49 BB | 19 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
Alex Reyes: 16 GS (22 G) | 9-4 | 3.34 ERA | 97 IP | 9.93 K/9 (107 K) | 3.80 BB/9 (41 BB) | 0.74 HR/9 (8 HR) | .238 AVG
14 GS (18 G) | 4-3 | 3.86 ERA | 84 IP | 93 K | 46 BB | 8 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
Dominic Leone: 61 G | 36 SV | 68 IP | 2.80 ERA | 10.59 K/9 (80 K) | 2.51 BB/9 (19 BB)
65 G | 3.41 ERA | 70 IP | 79 K | 27 BB | 7 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
Luke Gregerson: 56 G | 6 SV | 59 IP | 3.81 ERA | 9.76 K/9 (64 K) | 2.75 BB/9 (18 BB)
59 G | 3.34 ERA | 58 IP | 63 K | 17 BB | 7 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
Bud Norris: 52 G | 4 SV | 63 IP | 4.00 ERA | 10.29 K/9 (72 K) | 3.14 BB/9 (22 BB)
15 GS (41 G) | 7-7 | 4.59 ERA | 100 IP | 103 K | 41 BB | 15 HR
-ZiPs Projections, created by ESPN Analyst Dan Szymborski
In the end, how can you be upset with any of these projections? Understandably, they are only numbers and are not what we will likely see when the season comes to an end. Nonetheless, if any of those projections come close to being correct, then we can assume the Cardinals ended the 2-year drought of not making it to the postseason. Whether it’s the lineup, rotation, or bullpen, this team can (and will) compete with the best in all of baseball. Personally, I am eager to get this season underway and to witness all of these preseason question marks erased.
Let’s go Birds!
