Addressing the needs of the bullpen has been a constant note of concern for the St. Louis Cardinals this off-season. Although the Cardinals seem content with the way things currently sit, the fan base is still calling for a closer.
Now there is a chance a closer could arise from within the organization. If we look at recent memory, it’s happened before…
Look at the likes of Jason Motte or Trevor Rosenthal. They were brought up in the Cardinals organization, had some success at the Major League level and were given to opportunity to close out games. Motte became the closer late in the 2011 season and got the full time role in 2012 where he closed 42 games. Trevor Rosenthal became the closer in 2014 and had a full time role in 2014-15. He lost the role to Seung-Hwan Oh in 2016, but reclaimed the role for part of the 2017 season. The Cardinal bullpen is receiving a lot of flak coming into 2018, but is it all warranted? Let’s take a look at the current bullpen to see if there are any potential closers coming through the ranks, and also to evaluate where the bullpen stands.
(Pitchers are ordered by number of innings pitched in 2017)
Brett Cecil
When the Cardinals signed relief pitcher Brett Cecil a 4 year contract worth just over $30M, most fans were… perturbed to say the least. Fans were clamoring for the Cardinals to go out and make big moves, and this was not the move they expected. In Cecil’s defense, between 2013-2015 he was one of the most effective relief pitchers in Major League Baseball. During that time he sported a 2.67 ERA with a ridiculous 11.6 K/9. Cecil had a decent 2017 season with the Cardinals posting a 3.88 ERA over 67.1 innings. He was the victim of a couple bad months that spiked his ERA, but he showed promise of being an effective reliever reminiscent of his 13-15 form.
ERA by Month
April – 4.50 (14 appearances)
May – 4.50 (12 appearances)
June – 2.84 (13 appearances)
July – 2.53 (12 appearances)
August – 6.92 (12 appearances)
September – 2.25 (9 appearances)
October – 0.00 (one appearance)
Of course you would like better results in April and May, but it could have been worse. From May 19 – July 14 he went on a stretch giving up only 4 runs over the course of 22.1 innings for a 1.61 ERA over that span. Something to note is that all four runs came in one appearance against the Reds. He had 2 appearances during the 2017 season where he was charged with 4 earned runs. Bad outings like this were an obvious reason for such an inflated ERA. If you were to take out these two appearances from June 7th and August 11th, his season ERA drops to 2.86. I’m not going to make excuses for those bad outings. Everybody has bad outings, and that is reflected in his numbers. But what I did see from Cecil gives me optimism for the next season.
Video courtesy of MLB
Chance of being the Closer – 12%
I only say this because he will need to prove that he can be the guy in the back end of the bullpen. If by June they don’t have a definitive answer and he is putting up solid numbers, I can see the Cards making the move.
Luke Gregerson
During the off-season Gregerson signed a 2 year $11M contract to join the St. Louis Cardinals. He had spent the last three seasons with the Houston Astros. He is coming off his worst season in the Major Leagues which makes many Cardinals fans worried. He is older than most of the arms in the bullpen going into his age 34 season. He has good career numbers with a 3.02 ERA over 9 Major League seasons. Last year could have been a fluke, or it could just be the fact he is beginning to decline out of his prime. Earlier this week Gregerson was said to be given the first opportunity at being the closer.
Sean Bain on Twitter
Mo on closer “Luke Gregerson is going to get that opportunity first. He wants that role.” @ArchCitySports @Cardinals #STLCards #WinterWarmup
ERA by Month
April – 5.06 (12 appearances)
May – 6.30 (11 appearances)
June – 1.54 (12 appearances)
July – 4.00 (9 appearances)
August – 3.48 (11 appearances)
September – 7.71 (10 appearances)
October ( Postseason) – 0.00 (3.2 innings over 5 appearances)
I want to be optimisitic with Gregerson going into the 2018 season based on his solid career numbers. He doesn’t fit the typical mode of a closer, but he does have closing experience having 66 saves in his career. One number that is disconcerting is that his save percentage is particularly low. He does have 66 saves, but he has 112 save opportunities, giving him a 58.9 save percentage. To put that into perspective, Trevor Rosenthal was 121 out of 141 for an 85.8 save percentage and Seung Hwan-Oh was 39 of 48 for an 82.9 percentage. The Cardinals are still rumored to be a front-runner for Greg Holland and he has a 90.2 save percentage out of 206 save opportunities. Gregerson will most likely be a better option as a 7th or 8th inning specialist, but I’m hopeful that he can do well in a closer role if he has the job come Opening Day.
Video courtesy of Ace Kuroda
Notice how well he hits his spots on some of these pitches.
Chance of Being the Closer 50%
Unless the Cardinals manage to pick up Greg Holland on a good deal, I do expect them to give Gregerson a chance at being the closer. He was a cheaper option than many other relievers on the market, so I understand the appeal to sign him.
Matt Bowman
Bowman was one of the most used arms in Major League baseball having 75 appearances in 2017. Known for being a ground ball specialist, he was called upon in many tight moments especially to draw double plays. It is doubtful that Bowman would be used as a potential closer in the coming season. He had 5 save opportunities but was only able to convert 2 of them. I feel his numbers could have better with lighter usage.
ERA by Month
April – 3.65 (14 appearances)
May – 7.45 (11 appearances)
June – 2.19 (13 appearances)
July – 2.00 (15 appearances)
August – 6.48 (12 appearances)
September – 2.57 (10 appearances)
Like Cecil, Bowman was the victim of some bad outings that really inflated how effective he was this season. As you can see May and August really hurt his overall numbers, but the rest of his season went very well. He isn’t known for being a strikeout pitcher and he only tops out in the low 90’s with his 2 seam fastball, but he has good control that limits his walks. As previously mentioned I think he may have been over used this past season, and I’m hoping that the addition of Mike Maddux will allow for Bowman to be utilized more effectively.
Video Courtesy of St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of Being the Closer – 2%
I personally don’t believe his skill set would be best used as a closer. He is a good bullpen arm that needs to be utilized more effectively for him to reach his max potential.
Tyler Lyons
In his fifth season in the Major Leagues, Tyler has improved during each season. 2017 was his second season as a full time reliever and he took major strides. He had a career best 2.83 ERA over 54 innings and had a 11.3 K/9 rate. After progressing every year in the Majors he does look to be an option for a potential closer if things with Gregerson doesn’t play out.
ERA by Month
April – 4.50 (one appearance)
May – 5.06 (4 appearances)
June – 3.45 (10 appearances)
July – 2.08 (12 appearances)
August – 0.00 (11 appearances)
September – 4.08 (12 appearances)
As you can see Lyons had a ridiculous August where he didn’t allow a run. He actually went from July 7th to September 1st without allowing a run over the course of 19.1 innings. There are many fans who think that he would be a great fit as a closer. In 2017 he had four save opportunities and converted three of them.
Video Courtesy of MLB
Chance of Being the Closer – 30%
I see Lyons being the initial setup man once the season starts, but he might get save opportunities against primarily left handed line-ups.
John Brebbia
John didn’t make his first appearance until May 28th, but still managed to appear in 50 games in 2017 for the Cardinals to the tune of a 2.44 ERA. He was one of the strong points of the bullpen this past year and should be a solid contributor in 2018.
ERA by Month
May – 0.00 (2 appearances)
June – 2.92 (10 appearances)
July – 0.00 (10 appearances)
August – 3.95 (14 appearances)
September – 3.09 (13 appearances)
October – 0.00 (one appearance)
He doesn’t possess a strong swing and miss kind of stuff but he is still an effective arm out of the bullpen. His average fastball velocity is listed as 94.15 which is above the league average. He is an accurate thrower, only throwing 11 walks all season. When it comes to him being a potential closer, it remains to be seen. He posted good numbers and with a solid sophomore season, he could be in talks as early as next season.
Video Courtesy of The St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of Being the Closer – 1%
He had a great year, but that doesn’t mean he will be frontline for the closer role. In a couple years of production that could change.
Sam Tuivilala
This was his first full season in the MLB as a reliever and he performed better than expected. He is a hard thrower with an average fastball of 95.60. Like Brebbia he doesn’t have a ton of strikeouts to his credit but he does limit walks as well.
ERA by Month
April – 3.00 (3 appearances)
May – 3.38 (7 appearances)
June – 1.29 (5 appearances)
July – 0.00 (3 appearances)
August – 3.97 (10 appearances)
September – 2.00 (8 appearances)
October – 0.00 (1 appearance)
Sam has a leg up on some of the other bullpen arms because he was used as a closer during his time in AAA Memphis. During that time he had 46 saves in 57 opportunities for a 80.7 save percentage. I’m hoping that they bring up his workload next season so we can see how good he can be.
Video Courtesy of The St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of being the closer – 4%
I personally think he is a great option, but I don’t think the Cardinals feel the same way. It is nice that he has closing experience in AAA and that help him make a case.
John Gant
John spent most of his time in AAA Memphis and went 6-5 with a 3.83 ERA over 18 starts. In his time on the Major League squad he had a 4.67 ERA over 17 Innings.
ERA by Month
June – 5.40 (one appearance)
September – 4.50 (6 appearances)
Gant will most likely not be in contention for the closer role in the upcoming season. I’m hoping he can be a solid bullpen contributor.
Video Courtesy Of BNDVideo
Chance of being the Closer – 0.5%
He looks like more of a Long reliever or spot starter.
Ryan Sherriff
Sherriff is another that saw limited time with the Cardinals, and he too spent most of his time at the AAA level. He went 5-1 with a 3.19 ERA and was 6 of 7 save opportunities.
ERA By Month
August – 0.00 (3 appearances)
September – 4.50 (10 appearances)
Sherriff is benefited by having limited closing experience in AAA, but I don’t believe he has quite the skill set as Tui, and will most likely not be a factor at the closing position.
Video Courtesy of The St. Louis Cardinals
Chance of being the Closer – 0.5%
Only because of AAA experience.
There are Many more young arms that I have a chance of being in the bullpen in 2017. They include the likes of Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks, and Ryan Helsey. There’s also a chance that some of these arms could be thrust into a starting rotation role. Only time will tell.
The way the bullpen sits, I’m not nearly as concerned as the average fan. I think we have a lot of talent here and I’m looking forward to seeing how the rest of the off-season shapes up.
Thank you for reading.
Aaron M.
If anyone wants to talk baseball, feel free to shoot me an email at [email protected]!
