Earlier today John Mozeliak said that if the season started today, Luke Gregerson would get first shot at being the closer.
“Luke would get the opportunity first. He wants that role.”
He also mentioned that they are counting on Lyons to play a huge role and Helsley and Hicks would likely contribute.
Sean Bain on Twitter
Mo on closer “Luke Gregerson is going to get that opportunity first. He wants that role.” @ArchCitySports @Cardinals #STLCards #WinterWarmup
And Cardinals fans are not happy…
But why not?
In the world of pitchers, especially relievers, the motto is “what have you done lately?” If you have had a bad season recently, people think you suddenly can’t pitch. Now, in Gregerson’s case, his 2017 campaign was disappointing, but his career numbers show he can be effective.
Most Cardinal fans were hoping for the likes of Addison Reed, who recently signed a 2 yr. deal with Minnesota, or Alex Colome of the Rays. Both Reed and Colome are entering their age 29 season compared to Gregerson who will be turning 34 in May. Another possible option the Cardinals have been rumored to pursue is Greg Holland who recently turned 32.
Let’s look a little deeper at some numbers…
Career ERA, Saves, WAR
2.60 ERA – 186 Saves – 11.4 (1.6 WAR per season avg)
3.14 ERA – 84 Saves – 4.5 WAR (0.9 WAR per season avg)
3.40 ERA – 125 Saves – 6.4 WAR (0.91 WAR per season avg)
3.02 ERA – 66 Saves – 7.2 WAR (0.8 WAR per season avg)
So out of those 4, they have pretty similar numbers in terms of ERA, saves and WAR. But whose numbers are the best?
ERA
1st – Greg Holland
2nd – Luke Gregerson
3rd – Alex Colome
4th – Addison Reed
The career ERA for all 4 were very impressive with Holland having the best at 2.60. Many people might be surprised by Gregerson being 2nd in this category with a 3.02. Colome and Reed also posted respectable numbers.
Saves
1st – Greg Holland
2nd – Addison Reed
3rd – Alex Colome
4th – Luke Gregerson
This stat has to do with opportunity. Gregerson has been mostly a setup man, but got a chance at saves later in his career. Holland has been a full time closer for a number of seasons, and Colome has become the full time closer for Tampa for the last couple of years. Reed was the closer for the White Sox and Arizona early in his career, posting average numbers along the way, but nonetheless got the numbers. But it shows that all 4 have experience in the 9th inning and could easily become a closer again.
WAR (season avg)
1st – Greg Holland
2A – Addison Reed
2B – Alex Colome
4. Luke Gregerson
The clear winner here is Holland averaging 1.6 WAR per season. The margin between Reed, Colome and Gregerson is so small it’s hard to really pick an order. All three are within .11 WAR per season, showing how similar they have been during their careers.
If you look deeper at the numbers, all four pitchers are talented and post similar numbers. The only real difference maker in this group is Holland. He posted better numbers in most pitching categories. If the Cardinals were to sign him, he would most likely inherit the closer role. But as of this moment the role belongs to Gregerson and after looking at some numbers… What’s wrong with that. He is at least close in comparison to many arms the Cardinals were tied to, so personally I think he deserves the opportunity to prove us all wrong here in Cardinal Nation.
