The baseball offseason is a harsh winter for some. It’s the time of year when baseball clubs take stock of what they’ve done in previous seasons and consider what changes they need to make to have success in the future. Free Agents are signed, players are cut and traded, and coaches are reassigned and fired as the teams identify areas of weakness that they need to address.
The past few weeks have been particularly hard for a pair of well-respected managers, namely, Dusty Baker and John Farrell, the now-former managers of the Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox, respectively. These two men both lost their jobs shortly after their team’s playoff runs fell short of the expected goal. Both teams fell in the divisional series to tough competition, the Nationals losing to the Cubs in five games, and the Red Sox falling in four games to the Astros. Neither firing came as a complete surprise, but both are interesting case studies for how top teams view their manager’s role.
First, let’s consider Dusty Baker, who had been the manager of the Nationals for only two years. He was brought in before the 2016 season, replacing Matt Williams, who had missed the playoffs the year before. Baker was identified as the man capable of stepping in and making the most of a core that included Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper, two of the game’s biggest stars. The Nationals knew time was running out, as Harper’s contract would be up in three years’ time, and it was unlikely that the Nats would be able to keep him in Washington. So they brought in Baker, a seasoned and well-respected manager, to try and cash in on the talent they had with a World Series victory.
But that would ultimately be the problem for Baker. By any other standard, Dusty’s time in D.C. would have been considered a huge success. In two years, he won 192 regular season games and captured two N.L. East titles. But both seasons ended in game five of the NLDS, first falling to the Dodgers, then to the Cubs. The most recent series featured controversy for Baker, as he decided not to utilize either of his best relievers in a critical moment that ultimately cost him a game in the five game series. This doubtlessly weighed heavy on the minds of the owner and GM of the Nationals, and they decided to part ways with Baker, despite all his success. Now the Nationals are tasked with finding his replacement, hoping that whoever they identify for the job will be able to make a miracle run to the promised land in Harper’s final season.
Baker’s counterpart in Boston, John Farrell, was also ousted for disappointing playoff performances, but after a longer tenure. Farrell was brought on in 2013, after managing the Blue Jays for a few seasons, whereupon the Red Sox immediately won the World Series (Farrell’s second with the team, having won in 2007 as their pitching coach). That year, the Sox and Farrell defeated the St. Louis Cardinals, in their second season with manager Mike Matheny. Thereafter, the Red Sox slumped terribly, finishing fifth in the AL East two years in a row. Farrell was certainly on the hot seat after two dreadful years, but the Red Sox continued to back their manager, and were rewarded with an AL East title in 2016. That success ended quickly, as the Indians swept the Red Sox in the ALDS. But they would return to the ALDS a second year after a second consecutive AL East title, this time falling to the Astros in 4 games. This was the final straw for the Boston brass, who parted ways with Farrell after the loss.
The Nationals’ decision and the Red Sox’ decision are compelling for different reasons. With the Nationals, it is unquestionably a desperation move. They know that their future is uncertain after Bryce Harper hits free agency, and they would hate to end six years with one of the best young players in the history of the game without so much as a National League Championship to show for it. Therefore, they are grasping at straws, hoping that whoever they find to replace Baker will be able to catch magic in a bottle and make one glorious run to the World Series.
The Red Sox are in a very different position, though. For one, they have seen this manager succeed, bringing them a World Series in 2013. For another, they have nothing of the desperation that the Nationals have. Quite the opposite, they have a young core of current and future superstars like Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, and Andrew Benintendi who are the envy of almost every team in baseball. But, since their franchise altering World Series victory, again over the Cardinals, in 2004, the Red Sox have been one of the most cutthroat, “win now” organizations in baseball. Before Farrell, they had fired Terry Francona in 2011, despite his having won two World Series with the team and being the manager that broke the fabled “Curse of the Bambino.” Though their future is secure on the field, the Red Sox will turn over every stone in pursuit of more championships. It is an admirable devotion to perfection, even if it often seems a bit frantic.
Both of these personnel moves are interesting for St. Louis Cardinals’ fans in comparison to their club’s handling of Mike Matheny. Matheny has been the Cardinals’ manager since 2012, one year longer than Farrell. In that time, Matheny has posted an impressive .560 winning percentage in the regular season, but has posted only a .488 mark in postseason play. He won 97 games in his second season, which resulted finally in the aforementioned World Series loss to Farrell. He made it to the NLCS in his first and third seasons, and the NLDS in 2015, when he also won 100 games. It is an impressive opening to a managerial career, one of the best of all time on paper.
But, viewed through another lens, Matheny’s tenure can be seen on a downward trajectory. Each of the last four seasons has finished with a weaker result than the one before. The Cardinals suffered an NLCS loss in 2014, followed by an NLDS exit in 2015, followed by two years of missing the playoffs. Moreover, the past two seasons have each finished with Matheny’s worst winning percentage of his managerial career, .531 in 2016, dropping to .512 this season. Matheny was handed the reigns to a World Series winner, the team that won it all in 2011, and he initially thrived, reaching three consecutive championship series, and winning one. But, viewed negatively, one could argue that Matheny rode the momentum handed to him by his predecessor, and as the team’s talent slowly evaporated, so did the manager’s success.
And yet, the Cardinals show no signs of discontent with Matheny. This past season saw the GM publicly demanding better performances from his team, and openly questioning whether a culture change might be in order, but ultimately, only the third base coach was changed during the year. The offseason saw the front office fire well-respected pitching coach Derek Lilliquist, citing his unwillingness to adapt to an analytical approach to baseball. One could argue that Lilliquist was merely a scapegoat for Matheny’s own inability to adapt to the modern game, but the front office fired Lilliquist, insisting that their manger of six years was still learning and evolving.
In two other contending baseball towns, managers were fired this summer for failing to win, in spite of making the playoffs two years in a row. Meanwhile, in St. Louis, the town known as “Baseball Heaven,” renowned for the “Cardinal Way,” a manager who has missed the playoffs two years in a row remains entirely safe. Time alone can tell whether any of these decisions will payoff. Perhaps Matheny will still blossom into a brilliant manager. Perhaps Baker’s replacement and Farrell’s replacement will face off in the 2018 World Series. We cannot now know. But there is one thing of which we can be certain: whatever the “Cardinal Way” is, it does not exhibit the desperation to win that other clubs, like Boston and Washington, do. It is happy to sit back, trust its manager, and let the chips fall where they may. It may be right, it may be wrong, but it is what it is. Instead of considering a change at the top, the Cardinals’ offseason focus will be on acquiring the talent to allow Matheny to win here. We’ll need to watch the 2018 season unfold to see if this decision was the right one.
