This last Tuesday, June 13th, I had the wonderful experience of taking my 8 year old nephew to his first major league game. Everyone remembers their first, and for my nephew Ethan – he’s never going to forget the name Jose Martinez. Martinez hit 2 home runs, the Cardinals played great defense, and the pitching shut out the Brewers for a 6-0 win in game 1 of the day night doubleheader. This win also meant that the Cardinals were only 1.5 games out of first and with a double header sweep they would only have been ½ game out of first place!
Late afternoon Tuesday has turned into late Thursday night and the Cardinals momentum after winning 4 games in a row (after the 7 game losing streak), has disappeared, and has now turned into a 3 game losing streak The Cardinals now sit at 30-35, 4.5 games out of first place. Let that sink in. The team a lot of people thought was going to be a strong wild card contender is 5 game under .500. About a week ago John Mozeliak shuffled the chairs on the St. Louis baseball Titanic by designating Jhonny Peralta for assignment (has now been released) and moving some coaches around to better serve the big league team. He was very adamant that the next 4-6 weeks would really tell a lot about the direction the team was going.
I’m going to save everyone some anguish over the next 3-5 weeks and let you know now that this team isn’t going anywhere in 2017. The best moves for John Mozeliak would be to trade off some assets and start looking towards 2018. Every game there is an important part of the Cardinals team that disappears. Lately it seems like the Cardinals offense is stirring, but the pitching is letting them down. Early in the season the starting pitching was best in the league, but a sputtering offense made winning games hard. Throughout the season the bullpen has let the Cardinals down game after game.
Over the last 3 games the starting pitchers have given the Cardinals 13 ⅓ innings while giving up 15 runs. Lasting an average of just about 4 ⅓ innings, the starters (Gonzales, Leake, and Wacha) gave up an average of 5 runs. The last 3 games presented a huge chance for the Cardinals to show themselves as contenders – instead they lost all 3 and looked second rate against a Brewers team that’s atop the N.L. Central even though they may be the weakest division leader in baseball. In order to win the N.L. Central the Cardinals have to beat up on their division mates – in the last 11 games inside of their division they are 1-10. That doesn’t sound like a team that Mozeliak should bet on.
Here are some of the things that I think Mozeliak should do before the trade deadline/figure out by the end of the 2017 season.
- Trade Lance Lynn. Lance Lynn is in the last year of his contract. This has nothing to do with the way he has pitched. Lance has always been a workhorse for the Cardinals, and has been a guy who never wants the ball taken out of his hands. The Cardinals could look to bring him back, however Lynn will probably command a salary of around 15-20 million a year and be looking for at least 4 years in a contract. While I would be okay with giving him 4 years and 60-80 million, the Cardinals already have Leake, Wainwright, and Martinez under long term contracts. Wacha is a guy, who while injury prone, still has 2 arbitration years left. That leaves the Cardinals with 4 starters. Alex Reyes should be healthy and ready to be a big contributor to the team next year (as a starter or as a much needed bullpen weapon) while Luke Weaver, Marco Gonzales, and Jack Flaherty are all waiting for their chance to be a Cardinals starter in AAA. Lynn is someone who could net the Cardinals some good prospects if traded to a contender who needs a solid veteran starting pitcher. The Cardinals could keep Lynn and offer him arbitration when the season ends. Assuming he would decline the one year deal, the Cardinals would then receive a draft pick when he would sign with another club. I think the Cardinals best play is to trade Lynn and see what a guy like Weaver or Gonzales (or possibly even both) can do with an eye on the 5th spot in 2018 rotation or a prominent bullpen role (see Wainwright, Wacha, Martinez before they became starters).
- Trade Seung-Hwan Oh. While Oh was dominant for the Cardinals in 2016 he has been very shaky in 2017. In 2016 Oh was 6-3 with a 1.92 ERA. He pitched 79 and ⅔ innings last year only giving up 5 home runs. This season Oh is 1-3 with an ERA of 3.48. He has pitched 31 innings this year and has already given up 4 home runs. Even in games that Oh has been successful he has been walking a tightrope to get out of innings. Last year he had a WHIP of .916 which is amazing, while this year his WHIP is over 1.4. This month his ERA is at 6.00. What I’m trying to get to is that Oh can’t be trusted as the Cardinals closer anymore. His dominance from last season has vanished. He reminds me of Ryan Franklin. Franklin was a stud in 2009, good in 2010, and awful in 2011 before his release. Oh was a stud last year, and this year he’s trending down, and trending down fast. The Cardinals could trade him now to get something more substantial than an arbitration pick during the offseason.
- Figure out who is going to be the other starting OF’s with Dexter Fowler next season. Yes I didn’t include Stephen Piscotty as one of the other starting OF next year. After hitting .305 his rookie season, and .273 last season, Piscotty is struggling to a tune of around .250 this season. While he has hit .277 this month while dealing with the news of his mom’s illness, Piscotty has seen most of numbers decline so far this season. Cardinal fans have to hope that Piscotty isn’t Allen Craig 2.0. While I haven’t given up on Piscotty, he needs to start producing as the guy the Cardinals thought he was when he got a 6 year 33.5 million dollar extension. I also don’t see the Cardinals making a move on Piscotty because he’s only due 1 million dollars over the next 2 seasons. His contract doesn’t take off until 2019 when he gets 7 million a season. He could however be viewed as such a cheap potential starting outfielder that some teams may be willing to give up a lot to get a guy who will start in their OF for just 1 million in each of the next two seasons. For some reason I think the Marlins would really be interested in Piscotty at that price, but that’s purely speculation. Let’s assume Piscotty comes out of it and shows he’s worthy of a starting outfielder job. The Cardinals still have an outfield spot to fill. Randal Grichuk is the cat who has died 8 times. He has to show the Cardinals if he can be the guy that some people in the organization thinks he can be, or if he’s the guy with a skill set through the roof that doesn’t translate at the big league level. Jose Martinez is just a guy – he’s not an answer for LF. Tommy Pham has shown the ability to be an impact player – however Mike Matheny is constantly looking for someone to play in his place. Pham is 29 but still has years of arbitration left so he could be a guy who sticks around for awhile – I bet Pham would flourish with a change of scenery. In the minor leagues the Cards have plenty of options (notably Bader and Sierra) who would love to get a chance at playing full time in 2018. If the Cardinals aren’t going to be a contender this year, they have to figure out who their guys are going forward into 2018/2019.
- Top to bottom look at ANY moves which would make the team better. Some people might think this is stating the obvious, do whatever you have to do to make your team better. I’d say this team doesn’t have many untouchables. Alex Reyes (injured) and Carlos Martinez may be the only “untouchables” the Cardinals have. Do I think the Cardinals should trade Matt Carpenter? No. However – if the Cardinals could get a huge haul for a guy like him that puts their future in a much better spot, do it! John Mozeliak has already started to shake up the coaching staff and roster. I hope he continues to do that with an eye on the future. Would I be happy to see the Cardinals trade some of their younger talent (who may or may not work out) for a proven major league player who has years of control? Yes, if it makes the team better. There are so many prospects who the Cardinals view as “faberge eggs” who would crack to MLB exposure. Minor league studs don’t always turn into Major league studs – sometimes those studs in the lower levels turn into duds in the majors. No one wants to see the Cardinals trade a key prospect, for example Carson Kelly, and see him turn into a stud playing for someone else. This is the fine line Mo has to walk. I think he’s ready to make some moves that will significantly change the direction of the Cardinals going forward. It’s time for the Cardinals to exit 2017 and start looking towards the future.
