Happy Memorial Day to everyone out there! This day just isn’t for grilling out and throwing back a few cold ones (while that is nice to do on a day like today), today is for remembering everyone who lost their life while defending our great country. As Mark Twain once said “Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it”. Thanks to all who gave some, and especially to some who gave all. The old adage of not looking at the standings until Memorial Day is indeed a thing. So since today is Memorial Day, let’s go ahead and take a look at where the Cardinals are. The Cardinals sit in 2nd place 1.5 games behind the division leading Brewers. They are tied there with the Cubs – while the Reds are just a game back and last place Pittsburgh is just 3 games behind the Cards. Some pessimistic Cardinal fans look at the standings and wonder what could’ve been with a little better play, while the optimistic Cardinal fans look at the standings and feel fortunate to be tied with Chicago and only 1.5 out of first. I’ll break it down either way you may look at it.
Pessimistic Cardinals Fan:
If you drink the Cardinal Kool Aid and don’t want to read about statistics or facts that hurt your Cardinal feelings scroll down to “Optimistic Cardinals Fan”. If you want the truth keep reading. The Cardinals are 1.5 games out of the division race but with the great starting pitching the Cardinals have gotten, their record should be much better than it currently is. The Cardinals starters are tied for first in the league with 31 quality starts. Two out of every 3 starts the Cards starters are giving the team a quality start. Cardinals relievers are worst in the MLB with 39% of inherited runners scoring when a guy from the bullpen enters into a game. 3 of the 5 Cardinals starters are in the top 12 in ERA with Mike Leake leading the National League with an ERA of just 1.91. The starters have been historically good – there’s no way they can keep up at this pace. Leake, Lynn, & Martinez who are in the top 12 in ERA will regress back to the norm a bit. I’m not saying they aren’t going to keep pitch well or keep the Cards in games but if you’re telling me these guys will have ERA’s under 2 or in the mid 2’s I have some land in Florida to sell you. Some of the arms in the bullpen shouldn’t be pitching in St. Louis (Broxton, Cecil, & Socolovich, who just got DFA’d). If the Cardinals are really trying to win then they should have Tuivailala & possibly even Luke Weaver in the bullpen to get outs – something Brett Cecil still hasn’t figured out yet. Tyler Lyons, a good choice out of the bullpen doesn’t get in many games because Matheny always has him “under glass in case of emergency”. Seeing Broxton or Cecil pitch with the game on the line IS an emergency Mike.
The hitters on this team have had 2 months to figure it out and yet we still see the following batting averages – leadoff hitter & prized offseason acquisition Dexter Fowler batting .228, right fielder of the future and guy who the Cards gave 6 years and 30+ million Stephen Piscotty is batting .224, while the 3rd starting outfielder Randal Grichuk is batting .222 with an anemic .276 OBP. A starting outfield hitting a combined .225 isn’t going to cut it. Peralta is dead weight on the Cards bench batting below the Mendoza line at .195. Yet Mags Sierra who hit .367 in 30 AB and contributed to 6 wins in 7 games played can’t find a spot on the team. I understand he’s young and needs to play everyday but if he kept hitting like he was – why send him down – let him keep hitting and running in St. Louis. Tommy Pham, until Piscotty went MIA, has kept finding himself on the bench even though he’s batting .333 and has the highest slugging percentage on the team.
Don’t even get me started on the atrocious baserunning we’ve seen out of this years team. The Cardinals lead baseball in a statistic you don’t want to lead. The Cardinals have had 40 runners lost on the bases this year – 3 more than other team in MLB. Matt Carpenter who seems to only hear the Rolling Stones “Wild Horses” when he’s on the basepaths has been thrown out 7 times. Matt Carpenter – the guy is a grinder – but man he can’t run the bases. Carpenter is also sacrificing his average while trying to drive the ball in the 3 hole – he’s only batting .224.
The Cardinals poorly built bullpen, lack of hitting, and horrendous base running has lead them to being 24-23.
Optimistic Cardinals Fan:
Being only 1.5 games behind the division leading Brewers (who just might be for real), and being tied with the mighty Chicago Cubs two months into the season; all of this being done with a team that offensively hasn’t hit their stride and can’t get big outs in the bullpen is something to definitely be thankful for.
The Cardinals starters just need to keep their heads down and keep giving the team quality starts – the hitting will eventually come around. Mike Leake has somehow turned himself into an ace – with Lance Lynn and Carlos Martinez also off to good starts. Adam Wainwright seems like he has turned back the clock as he’s only allowed 1 run in his last 3 starts spanning 20 ⅓ innings. Waino has dropped his ERA more than 2 runs this month, going from a 6.37 down to his current 4.20 ERA after his latest gem in Denver. Michael Wacha seems to be trending in the opposite direction (and it isn’t even the 2nd half yet!) while his ERA for the month of May is just under 5.00 at 4.91. His ERA almost went up a whole run after Thursday’s start in L.A. The Cardinals seem to have guys who could step into the rotation in a case a starter gets hurt or continues spiraling down like Wacha. At AAA Luke Weaver has started 6 games after being injured earlier this season and is 4-1 with an ERA of 1.97. Also in Memphis is Marco Gonzales who seems to now be fully healthy. Marco is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in 3 starts since returning from injury. Perhaps the Cardinals best option if they need is a starter after the Cardinals hopefully promote Weaver or Gonzales to help in the bullpen, is Jack Flaherty at AA Springfield. He’s 7-2 with an ERA of just 1.42. The Cardinals have options to keep their pitching afloat. Rosenthal (1.64 ERA in May), Oh (1.50 ERA in May), & Siegrist (2.79 ERA in May but has been scoreless in 9 of 10 games this month) might be the only relievers that can truly be truest right now. Matt Bowman was in this group before the weekend series in Colorado but absolutely imploded pitching a combined 1 inning over 2 games and giving up 7 runs. Look for Mozeliak to continue to shape the bullpen (happy trails Miguel Socolovich) as the rest of the Cardinals bullpen continues searching for consistency.
You’ve got to think the Cardinals hitters will start to figure it out. Fowler, Piscotty, and Carpenter aren’t going to hit under .230 this season. Randal Grichuk is also under .230 but he seems to be less of a proven commodity than Carpenter & Fowler. Piscotty who took a leave of absence from the team – hopefully can come back refreshed and ready to turn into the hitter he was until last years 2nd half. Grichuk might not get the at bats we thought he’d get with Tommy Pham continuing to prove to Matheny that he needs to be in the lineup. If Fowler, Piscotty, & Carpenter start to hit like they’re capable – the Cardinals offense will be just fine. If hitters continue to struggle than maybe we’ll see more of the guys from Memphis (Voit, Kelly, DeJong, Bader, etc.) to come give the Cardinals a boost. Paul DeJong certainly did yesterday while homering in his first major league at bat!
There’s still 4 months to play this season and anything can still happen. If the Cardinals continue to get strong starting pitching, get a few guys right in the bullpen, and hit like everyone knows they can; they should be in the hunt at another “standings pole”, Labor Day.
