Here is your weekly NFL recap and preview by Allan Best. https://archcity.media/2016/12/15/nfl-weekly-pickem/
Week 14 was showed a lot as far as where we are heading when it comes to the playoffs. A quick recap of last weeks NFL games and then we will dive into this upcoming week highlighted by a Thursday match-up putting the Fischerless Rams in Seattle, that could qualify for the NO Brainer of the week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have quietly become a force to be reckoned with in the NFL South. They held the leagues #1 offense to under 300 TOTAL yards. Watch out for the Bucs to make a push for the division, but at the very least, I see a wildcard team shaping that no team will want to face. Don’t count out the now leading Falcons though. This offense is prolific! Without Julio Jones they put up 42 points last week (of course it was the Rams), but the two-headed running game and a much improved O-Line has this team primed, if the defense can step it up.
In the NFC North, the Lions squeaked by the Bears by a field goal. It’s the Bears, if Detroit wants to make any noise in the playoffs, or keep the division, they need to figure it out quick. The other 2 teams fighting for this division are a team, the Vikings, that started off the year looking like a Super Bowl Contender and have fallen off immensely! They have a game coming up in 2 weeks against the Packers, who looks poised to take the division after looking abysmal for the first half.
The NFC East may have 3 playoff teams in it, with the Cowboys, Giants, and Redskins. The Giants pulled off the season sweep over the Cowboys Sunday night (Dallas’ only 2 losses on the season), and the Redskins beat the worst team in their division in the Eagles. Dak has shown signs of regression the last couple of weeks, but this is a team sport and the O-Line has to step up for this kid, because the last thing you want is to have to rely on a Tony Romo that hasn’t played a down the entire season when you get to the playoffs.
The worst division in football has already appointed their division representative in my opinion. The NFC West looks to already be won by Seattle and this is a team that has looked pretty awful on the road this season. You would think there would be competition from Arizona, but it seems that the rest of the division is not interested in winning games. The Rams and the 49ers just really aren’t even worth talking about.
The AFC is shaping up to be a good race, but I think Denver may be short of the playoffs with their loss last week to an emerging Titans team. This race, I think, is between the Chiefs and the Raiders. The Chiefs own the tie-breaker after pulling off the season sweep over the Raiders last Thursday. The KC defense shut down Carr for the majority of the game and the offense really exploited the Raiders weak secondary. I see KC taking the division and Oakland landing a wildcard, but there are still 3 weeks to play.
After beating the Titans both games this season, the Texans are responsible for their own destiny the rest of the way. If they can beat the Jaguars and the Bengals, their last game of the season is against the Titans, while Tennessee has to get through the Chiefs and Jags. The Colts are not mathematically eliminated, but they will need a lot of help to get in and have the toughest road having to go through Minnesota and Oakland, before finishing the season against Jacksonville.
With the loss to New England on Monday Night Football, the Ravens may have just sealed their own fate. The hardest game left on their schedule is the Steelers, who lead them by a game, hold the tie-breaker, and have an equally simplistic remaining schedule. If Pittsburgh runs the table they are in, if they slip up (which they have this season), they could open the door back up for Baltimore. The Bengals just do not look the same with the loss of the personnel and OC in the off-season.
The AFC East, with the Dolphins losing Tannehill, is a lock for only one team being included in the postseason. The Patriots made the best defense in the NFL look like the Saints defense for most of the game Monday night. The one thing you can count on, year in, and year out is the Patriots running away with the division…with a strong chance at another Super Bowl.
Now that we recapped last week, let’s take a look at what we have ahead of us for this weekend.
L.A. @ SEA -15…O/U: 38.5
Let’s be honest…both of these teams were completely embarrassed last week, so which one are we confident will show up? I see this being another one-sided game with the Seahawks taking care of the Rams with little effort needed. There is the chance this is a game, because of the way the Rams have played Seattle the last few years, but a new coach getting his team ready in 3 days to compete against one of the best home teams in the league? I don’t see it…I like the Seahawks to cover 27-10.
Miami @ NYJ – 2.5…O/U: 38
I think without Tannehill, the Dolphins are going to have a rough go at getting in the playoffs, but the first step is to get past the awful Jets. With the emergence of Ajayi, maybe the QB won’t matter as much as most teams. As long as Moore can manage the game and protect the ball, the Dolphins should not have a hard time with the Jets who barely got past the armpit of the NFC West last week when the 49ers took them to OT. I got the Fins 17-7
JAC @ HOU -6…O/U: 39
This has the makings of being nearly unwatchable, unless you’re a fan of the teams. The 23rd and 28th ranked offenses in total yards face off for an important game for Houston. The Texans have a habit of dropping winnable games, but the 5th ranked running game vs. the 23rd ranked run defense should make Houston fans a little more comfortable. The question is going to be…Can Osweiler not throw the game away? It’s hard not to take the Texans at home vs. the Jags, so that is my pick 24-14.
Philly @ Bal -6…O/U 41
The Ravens aren’t out of the playoffs race just yet. with the Broncos holding the last wildcard spot and having a brutal upcoming schedule and Miami still having to play the Patriots on the last week of the season, Baltimore still has a good chance of getting that last spot. They will have to run the table and that includes Pittsburgh a week from Sunday, so it won’t be an easy road to get there. the Eagles aren’t exactly an easy out either. Wentz is coming off of a very impressive game, although it was a loss, but he looked liked he did when he was turning heads at the beginning of the year, but he’ll have to be on his game when they play the leagues #1 defense in the league. So how much are they going to be pumped for this game? I like the Ravens to bounce back and take care of Philly and bring Wentz back down to earth. Give me Baltimore 31-17
GBay @ CHI +6.5…O/U 40.5
This is the No Brainer of the week. The Bears have been playing better with Barkley behind center, but the way the Packers have been playing the last few weeks they seem almost unstoppable. I think the Pack rolls and covers easily 35-13.
TEN @ KC -5…O/U 42
This might be the most intriguing game of the week. Both of these teams have been playing above expectations and the playoff implications of this game makes it that m
ore anticipated. Alex Smith will need to make plays down the field with Hill and Kelce, because the Titans have been stopping the run all season (ranked 3rd), but have the 31st ranked defense against the pass. The Titans should rely heavily on their 3rd ranked rushing offense with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry going up against a bottom ranked run defense in Kansas City. Arrowhead is one of the hardest places to go in and win and could have an effect on this game, but this is my Underdog of the Week. I am going Tennessee by a field goal 24-21. Also this game has my must play fantasy TE and RB of the week… Travis Kelce TE for KC and DeMarco Murray RB for TEN.
PITT @ Cincy+3…O/U
Pittsburgh has a game coming up against the rival Ravens after this divisional match up against the Bengals. They would feel more comfortable going into that game with at least a game lead. Bell has been putting up MVP type numbers since coming off of his suspension and leading the Steelers to the #4 rushing team in the NFL. This could mean trouble for the Bengals and their 25th ranked run defense, but Cincy tends to show up with the last 3 games against the Steelers losing by an average of 5.5 points per game (which explains the 3 point spread). Eifert has turned into the weapon everyone thought he could be, but the loss of Bernard has been felt. Jeremy Hill has done a hell of a job as the primary back, but a two headed monster is better than one. With the surprisingly mediocre defense I like the Steelers to take this one 33-24.
Indy @ Minn-4…O/U 45.5
With the Colts losing a bad game to the Texans last week, that all but puts them out of the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean Andrew Luck is going to just lay down and take another loss. They are going against a defense that has let up the fewest points per game, the 3rd fewest passing yards per game, and the 2ndfewest total yards per game. Minnesota is fighting for a spot in the postseason with a big game against the Packers coming next week that could make week 17 obsolete giving the Vikings the tie breaker with a season sweep. Give me the Vikings to stop the Colts in this low scoring defensive battle 17-10
NOTE: Adrian Peterson returned to practice with the Vikings Wednesday, if you need a RB for the Fantasy playoffs, he might be worth a look.
DET @ NYG-4…O/U: 41
The Giants are coming off a huge division win against the Cowboys and now they have the 14th ranked passing game coming into town, but don’t let the ranking fool you, Stafford has worked his way into the MVP conversation with his play this year. Reddick has been a serviceable RB, but Detroit is wondering what might have been if Abdullah didn’t get hurt in the first half of the season. Manning continues to be an enigma, so guessing what he’ll do is like being a Meteorologist…you’re just guessing. Give me the Lions to continue their quest for their 2nd playoff appearance in 3 years 28-23
49ers @ ATL-14…O/U: 51
It’s the 49ers…this team is worse than the Rams, so can you guess where I’m going on this one? The top scoring team of the league will continue their destruction of the NFC West for the 2nd
week in a row. Give me the Falcons big 35-14
NE @ DEN+3…O/U: 43.5
After seeing what Tom Brady did against the #1 ranked defense last week, there is little that would conclude the Broncos pulling this off. Even with the Broncos stellar passing defense (3rd in NFL), without an offense to go with it, I like the Pats to win easily in Denver 24-13.
OAK @ SD+3…O/U: 49.5
Derek Carr is going to be looking for a bounce back game after the debacle in Kansas City. Look for their top 5 offense to handle the Chargers bottom of the pack defense. The passing offense will, no doubt, put up some yards against Oakland’s abysmal secondary. As long as the Raiders can keep the Chargers in the red zone, a lot of those yards will turn into field goals. The Oakland pass rush will play a big part in this game taking the Raiders to a bounce back win 33-24
Tampa @ DAL-7…O/U: 46.5
Mike Smith has this Tampa defense rolling and the offense is putting up points. Dallas coming off their 2nd loss of the season still got a typical Elliot game in the loss. Rushing for over 100 yds. against the Giants defense a week ago. I don’t see that type of output this week, as they are going against a much improved D-Line and the Cowboys defense will get exploited after spending too much time on the field. Dak has declined the last few weeks and could see another long night ahead of him. I like the underdog in this game as well. Give me the Bucs in a close one 24-21.
CAR @ WAS-6.5…O/U: 51
Well, the Super Bowl representative for the NFC has been a complete disappointment this season ranking in the bottom half in both offense and defense. While the Redskins have put up numbers and found themselves in the thick of the playoff race. Their 2nd total offense (2nd in passing / 12th in rushing) is looking to try and put 3 NFC East teams in the postseason. Kirk Cousins already over 4,000 yards passing and at home has a 65.7 comp. % and 11 TD / 5 INT and a 99.0 QBR. I look for him to have a big game against the Panthers 2nd rate secondary. I can see the Panthers putting points on the board, but they won’t be able to keep up with the Redskins. Washington holds off the Panthers 28-21.
All rankings provided by NFL.com and thescore.com
