Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: let’s take a look at two players. We’ll call them, Player A and Player B. Here are their 2016 stats:
Player A: 566 PA, .271/.380/.505, 135 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
Player B: 543 PA, .280/.354/.530, 135 wRC+, 3.2 WAR
If you’ve been promoting a passive attention span to the MLB off-season to this point, specifically with the St. Louis Cardinals, then you’re probably left wondering who these two players are. If you’ve been paying attention, you know the answer is fairly simple. That’s thanks in large part to the consistent attention paid to the 2016-2017 Free Agent Class’ number one contestant: Yoenis Cespedes.
Many an article has been written about Cespedes over the past couple of months, if not backtracking even further than that. The majority of these articles have come from the St. Louis media contingency, whether it be from blogs, websites, or newspaper clippings. The consideration does make sense. After all, the Cardinals arrived into this off-season looking for outfielders, but they were seemingly looking for center field help above all else. So, at first it was easy to dismiss the Cardinals’ chances at landing the head honcho of this year’s free agent class. Then, just to drive the point home, the above comparison was made ad nausea by writers of all different mediums.
Just to catch you up to speed, Player A is our beloved Matt Carpenter and Player B is Mr. Cespedes.
Often, it seems as though this technique has been used to dismiss the overall value of Cespedes to the Cardinals. After all, I did just say that the Cardinals were looking for a true center fielder. And while Cespedes has proven able to play center in the past, his time at the position has yielded some mixed results. So, it becomes even more elementary to toss Cespedes aside when we compare his results to Carpenter, right? The slugger is most likely going to demand a monstrosity of dollars per year (MLB Trade Rumors has him currently rumored at 5-years/$125,000,000, $25,000,000/per year), and he doesn’t provide anything that our most prized player does now from an offensive standpoint. Therefore, it’s been decided that the juice is most certainly not worth the squeeze.
My only question to this conclusion would be: do you not want another Matt Carpenter?
Don’t get me wrong, I understand the detractors from Cespedes. I’ve done my best to outline that hesitance up to this point. But it would still be foolhearted to not at least consider Cespedes an option for the Cardinals.
Having another offensive weapon like Matt Carpenter is not a prospect to scoff at. With the Cardinals most likely moving on from Matt Holliday and Brandon Moss, the club could still use a big bat to plug into the middle of its lineup. Cespedes’ career slugging percentage of .494 and OPS of .819 speaks for itself. So to does the upward trend these numbers have seen since his age 28 season. Yes, Carpenter has proven to be capable of gaudy slugging numbers himself, but it should come as no secret to anyone that he prefers a role at the top of the lineup. Cespedes is a bona fide slugger, and matches up to be a dominate force for at least another 3-5 years at the 3rd, 4th, or 5th spot in a lineup. With some of the power of last year’s lineup leaving the St. Louis area, taking a gamble on Cespedes may not be the risk that it is currently perceived to be.
If you read the column I published from earlier this week, “In Defense of Diaz, Wong, and Grichuk,” you know my feelings about letting Grichuk continue to man the center field position. If the brass in St. Louis allows the young upstart to continue his development, it doesn’t mean the Cardinals won’t still need another outfielder. It just means they can look to the corners to help solidify the defense. The fact that the outfielder doesn’t necessarily NEED to play center has been lost over the rhetoric of the early off-season movement, though.
Cespedes plays an adequate, and potentially better than average, left field. His arm strength is elite, and he moves well enough to cover a lot of ground in a corner spot. Immediately, an outfield platoon of Cespedes/Grichuk/Piscotty from left to right is light years ahead of Holliday or Moss/Grichuk/Piscotty. If the effort is to get better defensively, while also maintaining the uptick in offense, Cespedes becomes a valuable commodity for the Cardinals to consider.
Of course, there’s always the money side of the investment that will work against this kind of free agent acquisition. Will Cespedes be cheap? Absolutely not. But, lest we forget, the Cardinals do have money to spend. With a new TV contract on the horizon, plus average attendance revenue, and the fact that the Cardinals dominate their market, there is plenty of surplus to be thrown around. It’s just not the “Cardinal Way” to do so.
Mozeliak has been masterful with the work he’s done in receiving free agents and trade chips at a bargain. That stingy demeanor in negotiations has also led to a surplus of financial room this year after Holliday and Moss depart from their contracts. There may not seem to be much of a powerful argument to change that line of bargain bin thinking, but let’s bring up Holliday again for a moment.
When the Cardinals signed Holliday to a 7-year/$120,000,00 deal in 2010, it was at his age 30 season (that’s one year behind Cespedes for those of you keeping track at home). That particular signing is seen as a widely regarded success for both the player and the club. So, why would the Cespedes contract be seen as inherently different? Sure, the club ends up paying more for Cespedes per year, but the value would be arguably similar. The team is still paying for a top of the line slugger who can hit 30 HR/100 RBI with consistency, plays solid defense in left, and will exit his new contract at roughly the same time as Holliday’s old deal (assuming the deal is five years).
When posing a possible Cespedes signing, let’s be sure to consider that this type of investment has paid dividends for the Cardinals only six years prior (Holliday was able to remain a mainstay in the middle of the order for five playoff teams and one World Series Champion). Let’s also realize that having another player of Matt Carpenter’s pedigree isn’t a terrible thing, even if it means paying more than the club would have for the former player if the roles were reversed.
Cespedes is said to be deciding between the Mets and three other suitors, at this point. Hopefully, the Cardinals are ready to listen, if they haven’t already. Cespedes is no doubt a gamble, but for a team that so rarely attempts to push their chips in the middle, living recklessly could prove to have a mountainous upside.
