As the Cardinals’ 2016 season came to a close, an unusual silence fell over the city of St. Louis on Monday, Oct. 3. No fans lined the box office of Busch Stadium. No players loomed on the field for a workout. No bars adorned their windows with Postseason 2016 posters. For the first time since 2010, the Cardinals were not playing deep into the month of October.
There’s been a variety of reflection and anecdotes performed on this year’s team in the month plus since the final out of the regular season. And while there have been significant moves already put in place by the front office, there are still lingering questions about the makeup of next year’s team.
Obviously, the Cardinals took on a more unique identity in 2016; one that the team hasn’t often replicated in recent seasons. A power surge swept through St. Louis, and the defense was a seeming casualty of the offensive storm. The Cardinals ranked 4th in baseball in runs scored (779) and 2nd in home runs (225), trailing a Baltimore team that included the likes of Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, and Manny Machado. Such offensive numbers have been sparse for past Cardinals teams, considering that Busch Stadium has proven itself to lean in the favor of pitchers. Yet, this Cardinals team found a way to generate power one through eight in the lineup.
However, the defense ranked in the bottom half of nearly every quantifiable defensive statistic, and failed to support a pitching rotation built on the premise of ground ball outs. This formula ultimately led to the Cardinals finishing a game back in the wild card standings, and on early flights back home for the off-season.
It’s no shock then that the Cardinals have made upgrading the defense a top priority in the months leading to spring training. GM John Mozeliak already announced that the team has moved Matt Carpenter to first base, and that should offer more defensive stability for what suddenly became a crowded infield in 2016.
Yet, there is still more work to be done, and positions to solidify. Questions have arisen about the possibility of free agent center fielders, namely Dexter Fowler, and the trade market rumor mill has turned out names like Kevin Kiermaier and Ender Inciarte. There’s also room to ponder about how Matheny and Mozeliak will choose to deploy their bevy of infielders. Jedd Gyorko’s 30 home run season was hard to ignore, and Aledmys Diaz showed promise of not only being an everyday player, but a possible star in the making.
So, what moves do the Cardinals make to compete with, or at least stay some distance out of the shadow of, the Chicago Cubs?
Perhaps the front office will come to realize that less may just be more. When looking at the Cardinals middle of the field players (2B, SS, CF), it would seem as though the future of the core of the defense is anything but certain. Grichuk has raised questions about his defensive abilities, Wong has proven to be inconsistent over his brief major league career, and uncertainties remain with Diaz’s best available position in the infield.
Yet, these three players may represent the Cardinals’ most useful brigade up the middle.
In the case of Grichuk, the defensive liabilities have been a sticking point. In 2016, he failed to register a positive UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating), which is often cited as the most reliable sabermetrics stat for outfield performance. He often fell under heavy criticism of not reading the ball well off the bat, and he also came under fire for certain situational mistakes. It is hard to judge outfielders on this one metric alone, though. In fact, Grichuk only registered one position behind perennial superstar Mike Trout as the stat pertains to qualified candidates. The two of them also posted similar numbers in regards to Inside Edge Fielding, a stat that judges how often players are able to make plays deemed Impossible, Remote, Unlikely, Even, Likely, and Routine. Trout does hold the edge in most of these areas because he’s an athletic freak of nature, but Grichuk’s raw athleticism is still comparable to the Angels’ superstar.
However, it is still a bit unfair to compare Grichuk to such a widely regarded and heralded outfielder. Perhaps a more realistic comparison would be, Fowler. The 2016 Cubs’ center fielder did hold an edge in UZR, registering a positive 1.0 this past season at Wrigley Field. And, to a certain degree, Fowler may pass the mythical “eye test” just a bit better than Grichuk. All of this should be taken with a grain of salt, though. Fowler was given the benefit of playing in a relatively small outfield, and he was flanked on one side by Gold Glove winner, Jason Heyward. Needless to say, Fowler did not carry a heavy burden in the Cubs’ outfield. Let’s also take a look at how Grichuk and Fowler compared in the Inside Edge Fielding reports.
Fowler registers a 0.0%, aka no plays made, on balls that were deemed Impossible, Remote, Unlikely, or Even. You’d have to travel all the way up to the “Likely” section of the chart, where a typical fielder has a 60-90% chance of making the play, to even have Fowler register. Meanwhile, Grichuk was able to make plays in every single category, other than “Impossible,” which represents a 0% chance for a play to be made. All in all, Grichuk is the more apt athlete of the two, and the one that could, and should, be able to show off the greatest range. Other outfielders, mainly Inciarte and Kiermaier, do represent a significant upgrade defensively over the Cardinals’ current options. Yet, there are far more questions surrounding those players than Grichuk. Will these players’ teams even be willing to hear offers for them? What would the price be to obtain them? At the moment, Grichuk offers an opportunity for defensive growth and continued offensive improvement, and most importantly, he’s under team control. The Cardinals’ don’t HAVE to make a move for a center fielder. At least, not quite yet.
The patience that should be afforded to Grichuk should also manifest itself for our two other young players: Diaz and Wong. Diaz is a simpler argument. The 26-year old rookie phenom busted onto the offensive scene this year, slashing .300/.369/.510 with 17 HR and 65 RBI in 111 games played. He had a lull in production throughout the dog days of the schedule, but rebounded nicely in the second half. If you wanted to read into these splits, it looks like he was able to make the necessary counter adjustments to big league scouting reports. That might be the most encouraging sign of any for the young short stop.
However, the Cuban upstart wasn’t completely void of flaws, either. His glove labored to acclimate itself to the big league level, and his fielding stats represent a much larger problem for the Cardinals overall. Diaz was able to make up some ground in the second half, and though he finished with consistently below average marks at the end of the year, noticeable progression with the glove had appeared. It would be ill-advised and short-sighted to give up on him to maintain the middle of the field just yet. There’s room for him to blossom into his athleticism, and that’s a key trait that was on display in certain web gem worthy plays he had throughout the year. The arm strength should be enough to get by, and his hands should become more trustworthy with experience.
The major plus factor for Diaz is that he can man the middle of the infield with Wong. The 26-year old Hawaiian product has had an eventful and intriguing stint in the major leagues to this point. Cardinals’ fans have seen some ridiculously highly ceiling attributes, but also devastatingly low adjustment floors for Wong. One thing that has remained consistent, however, is his sterling defense. Just last year, Wong’s UZR/150 rating ranked him one spot behind Ian Kinsler among qualified players. You may have heard of Kinsler in the news recently; he just won his first career Gold Glove. Wong’s athleticism, arm strength, and quick hands make him a possible top defensive award winner, himself. And when attempting to strengthen the defense, while keeping Diaz at shortstop, there may be no better candidate than the player currently in-house. Allowing Diaz a safety blanket like Wong could prove a turning point in Diaz’s defensive development. Imagining a tandem up the middle with the youth and upside of Addison Russell and Javier Baez may be lofty, but certainly not as far off as Cardinals’ fans may think.
Wong did show signs of a maturity process this season, as well. He manned several different positions for the Cardinals, including some time in CF. He made noticeable strides in limiting his strikeouts and increasing his walk rate in the second half of the year: his two glaring weaknesses at the plate. Point blank, the kid got better in the second half of this year. If anything, what didn’t get better, was the way in which Wong and, to the same extent, Grichuk were handled.
Confidence in young players is key, and it seems as though Matheny and Mozeliak have differing ideals on how these components of the team should be handled. Matheny has shown an inability to play these types of players the correct amount of time. Too often, players like Wong and Grichuk are either used too gratuitously, to the point where they wear down, or too sparingly for any real momentum to be gained. With a middle three as young, and naturally gifted, as Wong, Diaz, and Grichuk, trust has to be a top priority. Instead of looking at the outside, perhaps it’s time to show trust to the inside of the organization and let the kids play.
