The Major League Baseball Winter Meetings are an exciting, but frustrating time of the year for baseball fans. Free agents sign, trades are made at an alarming rate and arm-chair managers wonder how their fantasy baseball team is going to be effected by the moves that happen over these meetings.
While the pitching market has been on fire, seeing David Price and Zack Greinke sign for record deals – while Jeff Samardzija signed for far more than a pitcher coming off his season should – there is a lot of speculation about what is going to happen with Jason Heyward.
His market has yet to develop like the pitching-market did, however, many pundits think that he will sign this week and other free agent dominoes will fall into place.
Teams that are known to be interested in the 26-year-old outfielder include the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Angels with hints of the Los Angeles Dodgers being interested as well. Each year there are often ‘mystery teams’ involved that could shake the landscape such as the Diamondbacks signing Greinke.
Heyward is arguably coming off his most rounded season offensively and another solid defensive season. He produced a .293/.359/.431 with 13 home runs and 60 RBI, 56 walks and 90 strikeouts.
Those numbers do not seem to suggest that Heyward will get the $200MM-$300MM some have been speculating he will receive. However, teams are not paying for who Heyward has been, but rather who he will be.
It’s extremely rare that a free agent hits the market at the age of 26. Whoever, signs Heyward will have all of his prime years, even a 10 year deal would put him at the age of 36. Heyward’s true value is in right field, but has the ability to play center field. Even if he declines defensively it will be likely not to happen until he is age 30-31 or even beyond that.
Heyward also has a potentially high offensive ceiling. While he will never be the ‘next coming of Hank Aaron’ as many thought he could become when he was a prospect. He did manage to hit 27 home runs in 2012 and his strikeout numbers were reduced in 2015.
The market seems to be waiting on a Heyward deal as no other bat has yet to sign. If Heyward can strike for a large deal it could bode well for players like Chris Davis, Justin Upton and Ian Desmond.
Big-name bats are thin on this market and with the price of free agency sky-rocketing for a large market in pitchers, many think it will go even higher for hitters.
The waiting game could backfire.
While it seems almost certain that the Cardinals have extended an offer to the Heyward camp, waiting on him could mean losing out on the other free agents.
For instance, if Chris Davis, Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes were to receive strong offers before Heyward signs they could be out of the running for one of the other free agents to replace his value.
The Cardinals also were interested in breaking the ‘status quo’ by offering David Price a team-record contract. However, they finished runner-up and have yet to find a starting-pitcher that would be able to eat innings.
Bill DeWitt has stated that he is willing to spend money but they will only stretch for the right guy.
Will they stretch enough?
It’s been reported that the Price offer the Cardinals made was at least $30MM less than what the Red Sox offered. It seems like Price might have accepted the Cardinals offer if it were closer to what the Sox came with, maybe in the $200MM-$205MM range.
Will the same apply to Heyward?
The difference between Price and Heyward is that the former has yet to pitch for St. Louis and the latter spent an entire season and appears ready and willing to come back to the club.
The Cardinals typically do not offer what would be considered ‘market-level value’ for their impending free agents. The organization has been second-to-none in getting guys to sign for less. This strategy might not work for Heyward.
It is clear Heyward wanted to test the free-agent waters, which is why he did not sign an extension with the ball-club during the season. Teams are curious about him and he is curious to see what his value will be moving forward.
A ‘mystery team’ like the Diamondbacks could come and sweep him off his feet. By then, it could be too late for St. Louis.
