The Cardinals have already begun their off-season work as they await the end of the World Series. The ground-work is being laid for important decisions. Many of the decisions moving forward will involve players arbitration eligible.
Arbitration hearings can often cause turmoil between the player and the organization. The Cardinals have been successful coming to agreements on salary before an arbitration hearing happens. Teams can also choose to non-tender players, allowing them to sign with another organization.
The Cardinals have seven players that are arbitration eligible. Matt Adams, Peter Bourjos, Steve Cishek, Tony Cruz, Seth Maness, Brandon Moss and Trevor Rosenthal. Maness qualifies as Super-Two player, essentially allowing him to make more money throughout the arbitration process and reach free agency faster down the road.
Arbitration is often cheap for players going through the first-time. Yet, one thing to remember is that clubs cannot offer a drastically lower value, even if the player has performed well-below value. The club’s offer cannot be less than the player’s total compensation from the prior year and may not be less than 70% of his compensation from two years earlier.
Brandon Moss
Moss reaches his last year of arbitration with mixed results from previous season. Moss came to the Cardinals via trade. Moss earned $6.5MM in 2015 and is set to earn a raise based off projections.
Moss’ 2015 statline: .226/.304/.407, 19 home runs, 58 RBI in 526 plate appearances. For Cleveland Moss put up .217/.288/.407 with 15 home runs, 50 RBI in 375 plate appearances. For the Cardinals: .250/.344/.409 but with just 4 home runs and 8 RBI.
Moss has hit 21, 30, 25 and 19 home runs the past four seasons. His power makes him an attractive candidate and his best years came in Oakland.
The entire season will be taken into consideration for arbitration. Moss is likely to earn a figure around $7.5MM-$8MM in arbitration. Without a clear roster spot moving forward, Moss would likely be non-tendered or traded to another club as he would be considered an expensive bench piece.
Peter Bourjos
Bourjos is also entering his final year of arbitration. Many thought he would have been the starting centerfielder for the Cardinals but the promised has gone unfulfilled. His role has mostly been served as a defensive specialist. Bourjos earned $1.65MM last season and will likely make less than $2MM.
Bourjos played in 117 games and had just 225 plate appearances, hitting .200/.290/.333 with 4 home runs, 5 stolen bases but was caught stealing 8 times. He also struck out 59 times in 2015.
Bourjos can still play plus defense, making him an attractive trade target, especially with the Cardinals crowded outfield (with or without Heyward). Look for Bourjos to be dealt in the off-season.
Steve Cishek
Former closer for the Miami Marlins, Cishek had an up-and-down 2015 before being traded to the Cardinals. He even spent time in the minor leagues. Yet, Cishek earned $6.5MM last season and is likely to earn somewhere around $7MM in arbitration.
For the Cardinals he pitched in 27 games with a 2.31 ERA, striking out 20 and walking 13. In years past, Cishek had 34 and 39 saves for the Marlins, making him an expensive bullpen piece. Cishek was notably left of the Cardinals playoff roster.
His numbers were not great and the price he will come will be risky for the Cardinals to keep him.
Tony Cruz
Cruz has been Molina’s back-up and has been used very sparingly during his time. Many wonder if the Cardinals will begin to lighten Molina’s workload and if that means trusting Cruz to catch more games, or look elsewhere. Cruz has an excellent arm but isn’t used enough.
Cruz earned just $775K and will probably earn $1MM in arbitration. Cruz played in 69 games but hit just .204 in doing so. In previous seasons the Cardinals looked for other options before trusting Cruz with more duties. However, he is inexpensive and has been mentored by Molina.
Trevor Rosenthal
Rosenthal, 25, made just $535K in 2015 but is likely to earn a significant pay increase after coming off an All-Star appearance and back-to-back 40+ save seasons. Rosenthal has appeared in 74, 72 and 68 games the past three seasons. He also struck out 83 batters while walking just 25 the close-out games for the Cards.
It’s not easy to make a big jump in the first hearing, but Rosenthal is the perfect example. He will earn at least $5MM but could earn up to $6-6.5MM. It is likely the Cardinals will look for a multi-year extension, similar to Lance Lynn last season.
Matt Adams
Adams earned $534K in 2015 but struggled offensively and staying on the field, which won’t bode well for his first arbitration appearance. Adams has yet to hit 20 home runs and is strikeout heavy. Through 60 games he hit just .240/.280/.377, all were career-lows for the first basemen.
Adams will more than like earn around $1.25-$2MM in arbitration. He will be looking to bounce back for the Cardinals but his inability to hit left-handed pitching has him looking like a platoon option.
Seth Maness
Qualifying as a Super-Two player, Maness will earn an upgrade in salary, most likely around $1MM. The upside to Maness was his use out of the bullpen, making appearances in 76 games. His 4.26 ERA was less than stellar but his usage cannot be overlooked.
Since it is his first time through, he will not be as expensive.
Summary:
Look for the Cardinals to part ways with Brandon Moss and Peter Bourjos. The roster does not have a clear spot for Moss at his salary. Bourjos is the odd-man-out in a crowded outfield. Cishek is also an expensive piece that the Cardinals could not trust in the post-season. The other players will be inexpensive or hold value (like Rosenthal) and will likely remain on the 40-man roster.
