Reviewing Heyward

Let me start with this. The St. Louis Cardinals do not need Jason Heyward. They survived the Albert Pujols departure. They can survive if Heyward does the same.

Last year the Cardinals made a splash by making the blockbuster trade than involved swapping Shelby Miller for Jason Heyward during the offseason. Following that trade there was countless speculation on the destination of Jon Lester and Chesterfield’s own, Max Scherzer.

Fast-forward one year, the Cardinals, decimated by injury, won the National League Central with 100 wins and the 2nd and 3rd best teams in baseball, by record, also played in the Central. Heyward started very slowly hitting just .217/.261/.349 with a 5-17 K-BB ratio, 2 home runs and 4 RBI in April/May games.

Yet, Heyward would then never hit below .284 in any month of the season. Offensively, he put up some of the better numbers of his career. In the first half of 2015 Heyward hit: .273/.372/.416 with a 57-24 K-BB ratio, hitting 9 home runs with 31 RBI and 11 stolen bases.

During the second-half Heyward hit: .318/.397/.469 with a 33-32 K-BB ratio, hitting 4 home runs, 29 RBI and 12 stolen bases.

This put Heyward’s season total at: .293/.359/.439 with a 90-56 K-BB ratio, 13 home runs, 60 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. He posted career highs in batting average and stolen bases. His highest on-base percentage since his rookie season and a career high 33 doubles, placing him in a tie for 13th in the National League.

It should also be noted that Heyward’s strikeout to walk ratio was outstanding in the second-half. Heyward is just 26 and could potentially improve offensively over the prime of his career. Though his offensive numbers are not flashy, they were solid and his hitting turned on to be consistent (a concern in previous seasons).

Defensively, Heyward’s Ultimate Zone Rating was 2nd in baseball, according to Fangraphs, trailing only behind the human highlight reel, Kevin Kiermaier. Heyward’s true value comes in right field, but can play an above-average center field, which would give the Cardinals several options moving forward.

According to Fangraphs, Heyward’s WAR of 6.0 ranked him 11th in the MLB. This ranked him ahead of former MVP’s Andrew McCutchen and Buster Posey.

The Cardinals have options if Heyward goes elsewhere: Matt Holliday is set to patrol left field, but age may be catching up with him. Stephen Piscotty came up earlier than expected and made an excellent postseason debut. Through 63 games Piscotty hit .305/.359/.494 with 7 home runs. While the home runs may have been something of a surprise, 15 could be a number to expect from him moving forward. Tommy Pham played in 52 games for the Cardinals in 2015. Randal Grichuk, just 23, hit .276 with 17 home runs and dealt with some injuries. The downside to Grichuk is he struck out 110 times in 350 at-bats.

Let’s talk about Grichuk for a moment. The team could elect to use strikeout machine Matt Adams at first base, could they afford to put Grichuk in that same lineup? Sure, he may hit 25 home runs, but could strikeout 200 times and hit .240 doing it. Though he is young and showed production, I would think teams could figure him out.

The Cards also have the options of using Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos. Jay had his worst season in 2015, but was injured for most. The Cardinals have gotten by with using an under-the-radar Jay in centerfield for several season. Jay’s defense really improved when Bourjos arrived. However, Bourjos never lived up to the bill. Brandon Moss is arbitration eligible, but without a clear roster spot he would be a very expensive man off the bench.

With Holliday aging the club should have a backup plan for him. I cannot see the team picking up his option in 2017 at his current price and probable decline in play and value.

At 26, the basement for Heyward’s contract is somewhere around what Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford received when they hit free agency. While Heyward isn’t as dynamic as both offensively, his age is the key and a team that signs him to a 7-10 year deal will get all of his prime years, a rare value.

The Cardinals need to find their long-term solution as Holliday was 2010. If the Cards can keep Heyward they could have Piscotty and Grichuk ease into positions.

The Cardinals will survive whatever happens with Heyward. There are many factors to consider and it’s clear Heyward enjoyed St. Louis and St. Louis loved having him. If Heyward stays it will not be for top dollar. However, Mo cannot depend on a massive discount. The attachment to Shelby Miller  cannot be forgotten but at some point you have to cut your losses.