The rotation of the St. Louis Cardinals is much more than Adam Wainwright. The club was wise to hang-on to all of their pitching, just in-case something like an injury would happen. While the sporting world awaits news on Adam Wainwright, the likely scenario is that he tore his Achilles and will be out for the rest of the 2015 campaign.
The Cardinals rotation includes Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, John Lackey and Carlos Martinez. The Cardinals entire staff has a 2.24 ERA, giving up 38 earned runs, 12 quality starts in 17 games, 44 walks to 141 strikeouts. Simply outstanding
But, the Cardinals organization and their fans should realize what they are losing on the field with Adam Wainwright being sidelined.
2015 – Through 4 starts, Wainwright is 2-1, 1.44 ERA, 25 innings pitched, 3 BB, 18 SO, 0 home runs, 1.04 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9, 6.5 SO/9.
2014 – 20-9, 2.38 ERA, 227 innings pitched, 50 BBs, 179 SO; 1.03 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 7.1 SO/9. Finished 3rd in the Cy Young award voting. The year before he finished 2nd and threw 241.2 innings.
The guy has been a work-horse, that’s just on the field. Off-the field and when he isn’t pitching he is a leader in the clubhouse. He helps the younger guys develop. He is the guy you want leading your rotation on and off the field.
You don’t replace Adam Wainwright. Even if the club brings in Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmerman or another potential trade candidate, they don’t come into the club house and become a leader. With many pitchers, you would be hopeful to just match the on-field production of Wainwright.
Hamels Statistically:
Cole Hamels is an ace. He is available to be had right now, you don’t have to wait to see if the Phillies are going to be going for the playoffs this season. They are out of it. They might even give you Ryan Howard for free.
While Hamels has never been good in April, his stats to date are: 0-2, 3.75 ERA, 24 innings pitched, 7 home runs (yes, 7 home runs given up), 12 walks to 24 strikeouts and a 1.208 WHIP. It’s not a great April, and you can probably write it off.
Hamels splits throughout his career in terms of ERA are:
April: 4.02
May: 3.63
June: 3.33
July: 3.16
August: 2.70
September: 2.97
He gets better as the year goes on, which is what many teams would prefer to have. So why not go after the guy?
The Market
This offseason the Phillies front-office watched Jon Lester get 6 years/$155 million with an option and Max Scherzer hit his $200 million deal. To them, Cole Hamels is a steal with 5 years/ $114 million. Hamels has an option for 2019, but many of the teams interested in him are on his ‘No-Trade Clause,’ he will force the team to pick up that option for 2019, making it a 5 year commitment instead of 4 years. He will be 35 when the deal ends. He is left-handed. They are going to want you to pay for him.
Money isn’t the only factor concerning Hamels. The Phillies are in a rebuild mode, they want prospects. The club isn’t asking for average prospects, either. They want 2-3 highly regarded prospects. In the Cardinals system this would mean Carlos Martinez, Marco Gonzales and Stephen Piscotty.
I know what you’re thinking. “It would be outrageous to give up that package. No way would anyone pay for that!” You’re right. It would be too much to give up for Hamels. If you trade Martinez and/or Gonzales you’re giving up rotational depth that would need to be replaced as well.
But, that is going to be the price. The Red Sox are desperate for an ace. Rick Porcello is not going to be the shutdown pitcher for them. The Dodgers are dealing with some injuries to their rotation and they have a possibility of losing Zack Greinke in the offseason. Both of those clubs have the money to pay for Hamels. Both of those clubs have the prospects to obtain him.
And it is just April. Other teams could get involved in the discussion as the season progresses. Hamels might not be at his peak price for 2015.
Salary and Prospects
Would you trade Martinez, Gonzales, Piscotty or Grichuk for 4+ years of Cole Hamels?
I would trade Grichuk in a heartbeat. He shouldn’t be considered untouchable. He doesn’t get on-base enough to be considered dangerous. Youth is on his side and he may eventually develop into the a decent MLB outfielder. He is not a star and is likely to never be one.
Piscotty? He is 24 and hasn’t reached the MLB yet. He isn’t a power threat, but the Cardinals are not built around power. He seems to be the likely replacement should Heyward depart or Holliday lose production next season. He isn’t a great prospect, but could develop into a nice player and hit for high average. You should think about it, but you have to think for the future.
Martinez or Gonzales? Both have made it to the MLB and Martinez is finally getting a shot to start games. It is tough to sit around and wait for potential, but the Cardinals have team-control on salary for these youngsters. It would be difficult to trade team-controlled arms, especially when Martinez has a comfortable ceiling as a number 2 starter and Gonzales fast-tracked to the MLB.
The budget promotes a problem. If you commit the $110 million or-so for Hamels, you most likely lost your chances on re-signing Heyward. The Cardinals may not want to re-sign Heyward, but if you trade Grichuk or Piscotty, you take away one of the replacements. The Cardinals didn’t trust Grichuk to play right field this season as it is. Matt Holliday is aging as well. Will there be another guy ready if you trade one of those outfielders, or both?
The Cardinals, by no means, are a small-market club. They are an upper tier, mid-market club that will spend the necessary dollars. But, to take on Hamels and try to re-sign Heyward would most likely be problematic.
Internal Options
You never can be prepared for when your ace goes down. However, the Cardinals have boasted pitching depth over the past two seasons. The reason you have pitching depth is for situations like injuries. Of course, you do not expect youngsters to throw as well as your ace. You expect Lance Lynn to show up in big games, Michael Wacha to develop into the all-star pitching year-in and year-out that he can be. You expect John Lackey to be a veteran that can share some of that clubhouse leadership.
While Marco Gonzales is on the disabled list, John Mozeliak was confident that he could have been a productive starter in 2015. Now he should get his chance once he returns.
The Cardinals have the depth to sit-back and wait closer to the trade deadline. The NL Central appears like it is going to be a tough race. If they need an ace, they can get one when more pitching is made available. If they go after Cole Hamels they will lose top prospects and commit salary.
Now isn’t the time to panic. Now isn’t the time to overpay. Hamels would be a great addition. It isn’t necessary. Not yet and maybe not ever.
