The Price-tag of Hamels, Price and Scherzer

Photo by: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images North America

The Cardinals have been rumored to be interested in a top pitcher since the beginning of the offseason. The Birds were linked to Jon Lester but there was never an official offer for him made and he has since signed with the Chicago Cubs. Since the Cardinals were interested in Lester, it could be assumed that the team was interested in the St. Louis native, Max Scherzer. However, there is nothing to indicate that the Cardinals have made him an offer and it would seem unlikely they would sign Scherzer because he is deemed to be more valuable than Lester, whom signed for 6 years/$155MM.

Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi came together to report that sources indicate the Cardinals are still interested in Scherzer via free agency. Yet, the speculation has grown to trades for either David Price or Cole Hamels. Price and Hamels are both left-handed veterans. The Cardinals have yet to boast a dominate left-handed pitcher in the playoffs and it could make the difference, especially when an opposing team has a left-handed power hitter.

• David Price – Price made his debut in 2008 with the Tampa Bay Rays, but pitched in only 5 games total.  In 2010, Price broke out to become the ace of the team, going 19-6 with a 2.72 ERA striking out 188, making the all-star team and finishing second in the Cy Young voting. Price is projected to make $18.9MM in his final year of arbitration, he certainly is not a ‘cheap’ buy. He was traded at the deadline last year to the Detroit Tigers in a 3-team deal involving the Seattle Mariners and the Rays. The price for a projected 44 starts of Price, not including his salary was Drew Smyly (who showed similar numbers to Price when traded), Nick Franklin and Willy Adames. Price has not begun any negations of a contract extension with the Tigers and could be available for trade if the right players come forward. While the trading cost will not be as much because there is only one season left for Price, it will still take a big prospect to get him because he will be made a Qualifying Offer and his team will receive a first-round draft pick for compensation.

• Cole Hamels – His career began with the Phillies in 2006. While he has never finished above 5th for the Cy Young award voting, he has put up some impressive numbers. Hamels has posted an ERA under 3.00 twice, 2014 being on the seasons. In addition to those seasons Hamels has posted an ERA under 3.10 three times. Hamels is set to make $23.5MM for 2015-2018, he has a team option for 2019 for $20MM, vesting for $24MM and a buyout for $4MM. Hamels will be 35 when his contract ends in 2019. While his contract is expensive, every No. 1 pitcher will be. The upside to his deal is he will be 35 when it ends and not 37-39. A downside to Hamels is that he has logged 1801.1 innings pitched. In comparison, Wainwright (even though he missed a season and spent time in the bullpen) has pitched 1541.2 IPs. Price has 1221.1 IPs, Scherzer has thrown 1239.1 IPs. Hamels has thrown a lot of innings over his 9 year career. While he is only 31, he has logged as many innings as guys that are typically 33-35.

• Max Scherzer -Scherzer began his career in Arizona, pitching in 16 games in 2008. The following season he would become a starter and has been incredibly reliable. Scherzer broke out in 2013 and won the Cy Young for the Tigers going 21-3, 2.90 ERA and .970 WHIP. Scherzer followed with another impressive season and has been a reliable starter since 2010. He spent his high school days at Parkway Central (in Chesterfield, MO) and pitched for Mizzou. In his 7 seasons he has thrown 1239.1 IP and has been a strikeout machine, raking up 1321 in that time period. The downside is the expense for him. It has been reported he is seeking $200MM but his market has not been as big. While many pundits agree he should get more than Lester, it doesn’t appear his market is coming together. His agent is also Scott Boras and he will go for the best offer, rarely are discounts given in the world of Boras.

So, what does this mean for the St. Louis Cardinals? There is a lot of speculation on Scherzer. He had already turned down $144MM/6 years with the Tigers last offseason, a huge gamble. It is agreeable that price is below market value, would the Cardinals even offer THAT deal? Scherzer is going to have to give the Cardinals a discount. How much of one will remain to be seen. However, Scherzer will cost the team a draft pick, but he will not cost any other players involved.  I don’t see Scherzer gambling on his 2014 season to take the same money he could have had before. Scherzer will have to give a discount, but it will probably be close to $160MM/6 years and options for other seasons.

The Cardinals pitching depth is not as deep as it once was. The team traded Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins, taking some of the depth away. Wainwright is coming off of a surgery and is 33. Wacha missed a massive amount of time and did not look good in September when he came back. The Cardinals need to have some other pitching options available if Wainwright and Wacha do not return to form or need more time to recover.

If the Cardinals are looking for a David Price or Cole Hamels they will most likely be trading Carlos Martinez or Marco Gonzalez as a pitcher involved. The club would also most likely have to deal either Stephen Piscotty or Randal Grichuk. While the team has an overcrowded outfield at the moment, that will not necessarily be the situation after this season. Jason Heyward is most likely to test the waters of free agency. While the team will be working to keep him around, the front office needs to assume that losing him is a realistic possibility and someone will need to replace him. Matt Holliday’s production is declining and while signed through 2017, it is doubtful the Cardinals elect to pay him that much money in 2017 when they can buy him out for $1MM.

If the Cardinals trade for Hamels they will need to trade top-prospects and pay him $23.5MM for four seasons and since the Cardinals are part of his no-trade clause in order to complete the trade they will most likely have to accept the $20MM option in 2019. A trade for Hamels, since he is already under contract and the Phillies have such a huge TV deal they could always just keep him will most likely cost Martinez/Gonzalez and Piscotty/Grichuk with some other prospects being involved.

If the Cardinals trade for Price the package of prospects will probably NOT be as high as Martinez/Gonzalez and Piscotty/Grichuk. However, one of those four would certainly be part of the deal. They would have to pay him around $18.9MM this season and the Cardinals would almost certainly give him an extension in order to complete the trade. Price will turn 30 during the 2015 season and will want big-money. Jon Lester money is probably a good starting point for Price at $155MM/6 years. However, Price could go for much more than that.

All three of these pitchers make a massive amount of money and come with a lot of risk. The likelihood that these players become No. 3-4 starters towards the last 2 seasons of their contract is very high. However, sending Wainwright with Price/Hamels/Scherzer would be a deadly 1-2 punch. With Lynn and Wacha sitting at 3-4 the Cardinals would be very tough to beat in any postseason series.

The Cardinals need to decide if the the prospects are worth going for another top starter. They will also have to decide if they can commit a large amount of money to these players for the next 5 years (minimum). It would be uncharacteristic of the team to make a move like this. Yet, it was uncharacteristic to trade for Heyward.

Opinion: The Cardinals could be the most dangerous team in the National League with another top starter. The Giants have lost some pieces, the NL West could be a dog-fight and the Nationals seem to be missing some offensive pieces as well.

All three of these pitchers will be excellent and each come with their high and low points. Cole Hamels probably has the best contract of the players involved. He will run at least one year less than the other pitchers will and his last year will be $20 million at age 35. His downside is all the innings he has thrown. Hamels comes with a lot of mileage, but a left-handed ace would be a great thing to have for St. Louis.

David Price might seem like the better option for the Cardinals. He is left handed, he has won a Cy Young and managed to pitch the AL East, not only are the teams tough but the majority of the ballparks are difficult to pitch in. Price is going to get six years at least and will more than likely cost $25MM in Average Annual Value. He will also cost a high-end prospect to obtain him and when Price was shipped to Detroit he pitched average down the stretch when needed. Further downside shows that Price’s velocity was at a career low in 2014. His velocity averaged 92.9, 2 MPH below the year before. When pitchers start losing velocity, front offices should be very concerned. While nothing has been cataclysmic, you don’t have to go far to point out how great Tim Lincecum was before his velocity fell off and then was sent to the bullpen. The Cardinals could trade for Price and make him a QO to get a draft pick back, but they would run the risk of losing Price and Heyward in the same season and you would also have to consider all the prospects they gave up to get them in that deal. The cost of those two rentals would be astronomical.

Max Scherzer is the final piece in this puzzle and he will cost the most money. It is likely the AAV of his contract would be around $28MM over the course of six years. The upside to Scherzer is that he will not cost additional prospects and has not logged that many innings. He comes with significantly less than Hamels and is not showing the velocity drop of Price. He will turn 31 during the season, but I think his contract will become the less regrettable after all is said and done. Scherzer has been very durable and reliable. A homecoming to St. Louis would be a great story for him and the organization and the fans would finally get to see a big-name free agent come to St. Louis.

Verdict: I cannot see the Cardinals giving up massive amounts of salary AND prospects. If the Cardinals are going to make a move, it needs to be for Scherzer. While the Cardinals have the ability to trust their rotation going forward, no one can deny what Scherzer would do for the organization. Hamels and Price would be nice additions, especially since they’re left-handed. Yet Hamels has thrown far too much and Price has lost velocity. In the end, the Cardinals will pass on all three, but Scherzer should be their guy.