Preparing for Life without Molina and Holliday

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Life without Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday is a scary subject. These two players have been with the organization for years. Both are getting older, both have been losing production. It’s difficult to imagine that Cardinals would have another every-day catcher. Or another every-day left-fielder. The middle of the lineup would have a different feel without Holliday. The rotation and how opposing teams run on the Cardinals will change. While the Cardinals will adjust, they need to prepare for the unknown, when these players cannot produce any longer.

Catching Hurts

Molina made his debut way back in 2004 and the next season took over as the full-time starter. He is signed through 2017 and the team has an option for the 2018 season at $15 millon or a $2 million buyout. He’s been the staple of the St. Louis Cardinals pitching staff,controlling what is called, how the defense adjusts, and after a few seasons in the Big Leagues, became a staple of the lineup.  Opposing teams do not run when he is behind the plate. When they do, he throws them out. He’s a game changer. He’s been the MVP of the Cardinals for the past several seasons and if Posey won the MVP award, a case could be made that Molina should have done so.  Most catchers simply cannot do this for more than 15 seasons. Age, injury, fatigue, and production decline become an issue. Father Time goes after catchers more-so than other position.

While Molina played at a very high level last season, injuries were getting to him. Defensively, he wasn’t the same player. It looked like a struggle at times to catch the ball, throwing the ball became an issue and swinging a bat was painful. This is how decline begins. I have no doubt that Molina will work hard to become healthy. After all, Molina was so tough he came back from the injury sooner than anticipated, but it was clear to see he still wasn’t right.

Yadi will be a Hall of Fame catcher. He’s the best in baseball, which is no small feature when going against the likes of Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy, Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Salvador Perez and Matt Weiters. Molina can hold his own at the plate, but excels defensively. Most Hall of Fame catchers played more than just catcher. Johnny Bench would play the corners as well as the outfield. Yogi Berra was a backup catcher the last two seasons of his career and yes, played outfield and occasionally first base during his youth. Roy Campenella only made it ten seasons. Gary Carter made it 19 season, but the last four seasons he spent as a back-up/platoon player and before that…oh yeah, played a little outfield and the corner positions. Even Hall of Fame catchers need to play other positions in order to last longer. The trend seems to be these players can be solid for 15 seasons and start to fade. Molina is already at season 11 and has played first base 4 times as a starter and total of 73 innings there. Molina has played a total of 10,877 innings. In 10 seasons Campanella played 8345 innings.

Yadi has played in 1302 games as a catcher over 11 seasons an average of  118 games at catcher. In comparison to other HOF catchers. Bench – 1742 over 17 seasons AVG 102; Berra – 1699 over 19 season, AVG 90 games a season; Carter 2056 over 19 seasons, AVG 108 season; Fisk – 2226 over 24 seasons, AVG 93.  When you consider that Molina’s first season was only 51 games when you subtract that number and take it over 10 seasons he is closer to 125 games per season. Molina has never caught more than 1175 innings in a season while some of the other hall of fame players got over 1300 IPs per season. Yet, these players played other positions, playing other positions allowed for the the players to have extended careers. Playing first base or the outfield was easier on their legs.

Molina has a lot of mileage and the injury bug did strike last season and he has a clean slate except for last year and 2007, for the most part. The Cardinals should really consider playing Molina at first base more to extend his career. Molina could serve as a potential platoon player with Mat Adams at first base. The Birds should consider finding a suitable back-up catcher. While Tony Cruz is still slotted for the back-up position, he was not trusted enough to catch when Molina went down to injury. This shows that the Cards intend to use Molina as a catcher and play him in 10 games or less at first base.

In the coming seasons the team needs to look for the next top catcher. It takes catchers a long time to get to the MLB. It takes time for these players to develop defensively. Molina would also serve as one of the best mentors in the game. Molina’s time is not done yet, but it is on the horizon and the Cardinals need to prepare for a drop in production offensively, declining defensive skills and a longer recovery time. Yadi should have 2-3 highly productive seasons if he has recovered from his injuries by the time the season starts. If those injuries do not heal appropriately, we’ll see decline.

Over Time, Hitting Skills Diminish

Matt Holliday came to St. Louis from Oakland in 2009. In 270 ABs, Holliday hit 13 home runs and .353, it was a match-made for the middle of lineup being paired with Albert Pujols. It wasn’t long before Holliday inked a 7 year, 120 million dollar deal, at the time, one of the more lucrative contracts in baseball. Even more impressive is that Holliday is represented by Scott Boras and his guys usually go to free agency.  Outside of his rookie season and last season Holliday has hit above the .290 mark each year. Last season Holliday slumped for most of the season but managed to find himself in the second-half, hitting .272 with 20 home runs for the campaign as a whole. While Holliday has never hit more than 30 home runs since playing in Colorado, he has enjoyed St. Louis by hitting 20 home runs in 5 consecutive seasons with the club and hasn’t hit less than 20 since 2005.

Defensively, Holliday has always been somewhat of a liability and is familiar with posting a negative UZR ( Ultimate Zone Rating, measuring arm, range runs, error runs above average). Yet, Holiday was never seen as a guy who would be stellar in the outfield defensively. He was brought into hit, and hit is exactly what he has done. Holliday will be 35 for all of the 2015 seasons and has hit into 51 double plays over the past two seasons.

In May, June and July, Holliday hit below the .270 mark. It took an excellent September/October to get back on track. Holliday had just 6 home runs in the first 93 games of the season. In his final 63 games of the season he managed to hit 14. Having a good August-October could mean that Holliday was just having a rough 2014 and managed to find his stride and will be ready to go in 2015. Or it could mean that Holliday is becoming less of a consistent player.

Overall, Holliday had the worst year of his career least season. Many guys would take this as a ‘worst’ season. Yet, most guys do not make the money that Holliday makes and expected to produce at a certain level. Holliday’s .272 was the lowest of his career, and for much of the season was lower. His 20 home runs were the lowest since 2005. His OBP and SLG were also career lows. Even more concerning is that in 2013, Holliday had a slow start and a strong finish, hitting .348 in the second half and just 4 less home runs with 100 less at bats compared to the first half that season.

The numbers are looking more and more clear that his production is slipping and trending downward. Holliday is a strong-man, some of the balls he hits are far out of the zone and they still travel far. Yet, the Cardinals are still on the hook for $34 million over the next two seasons. Holliday has a $1 million buyout that the team is certain to exercise in 2017. Usually when guys reach their mid 30’s, the production doesn’t get better, it continues to steadily decline. Some of those balls Holliday hits might not travel as far. Holliday might put up similar numbers in 2015 in comparison to his past two seasons, but his inconsistency over the course of the season is tough to swallow.

Randal Grichuk might end up getting plenty at-bats over the course of the season. If not, they may send him down to Memphis for more consistency and development. If he remains on the roster he could end up playing more games if Holliday does not produce. If Holliday can continue to be an offensive contributor, he will give Grichuk more time to develop. If the numbers continue to decline, Holliday could end up becoming an expensive bench player.

The End Is Coming

The Cards are better prepared with dealing with the decline of Holliday than what they will be with Molina. Catcher is a difficult position to find someone that can do what Molina does. Staples of the franchise will continue to come and go. It will be difficult watching these two players decline and eventually fade into retirement. These players might finish their careers with other teams. The Birds seem to have plenty of ample replacements for Holliday if they are given the time to develop. It is clear the team wants to extend Heyward and hope he develops into more of an offensive force. Molina’s replacement on the other hand might not come for a couple of years down the road, but the team needs to be ready. While Molina still should be a great catcher it is going to take 3-4 seasons to develop a new catcher. At that point, Molina will no longer be a great player. The decline is near for both players, the pieces need to start coming in place for the inevitable decline.