Emboldened Cards Deal Miller for Heyward

I know this doesn’t qualify as a Hot Take being that the trade happened more than 24 hours ago, but sometimes it is better to think and respond later rather than read and react.  As you already know, the St. Louis Cardinals have traded SP Shelby Miller and Prospect Tyrell Jenkins to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for OF Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden.  Miller will be immediately inserted into the Atlanta rotation in 2015.  Heyward will be inserted directly into the St. Louis lineup, and presumably hit towards the top of the order to grant the Cardinals their wish to move 3B Matt Carpenter toward the middle of the order to give him an opportunity to drive in more runs and be the go-to guy in high leverage situations.  Waldon could presumably be the guy in the 8th for the Birds, with the open rotation spot with Miller’s departure more than likely being awarded to young Carlos Martinez, or at least a competition with Martinez being dubbed the front runner.  Tyrell Jenkins, the 4th player in the deal is a Minor League pitching prospect in the St. Louis farm system, and could turn out to be a good to great starting pitcher at little to no cost to Atlanta in the years to come.  Jenkins has 6 years of team control left, as he has yet to make his debut in the MLB.

This trade, of course, was deemed necessary by the Cardinals and GM John Mozeliak due to the untimely and tragic death of uber prospect Oscar Taveras.  The gaping hole in Right Field left by the passing of Taveras was the 800 lb. gorilla in the room, something far too large and expansive for the St. Louis organization to ignore.  Although I am a huge fan of Randal Grichuk and think that he could, to quote the famous Lou Brown in “Major League” be a potential All-star, potential is good for only two things.  One, it routinely gets coaches fired at every level, because, after all, it is an abstract thing and is dreamed up by scouts and GMs, and expanded by fan bases and barstool debates.  Secondly, potential can skew an outlook for a franchise, thinking about what could be, instead of what most likely can reasonably be expected.  The second of these two factors when discussing potential is what motivated the Cardinals, in my opinion, to deal Miller in exchange for Heyward-the 2 principles in the deal.

First, let’s look at Miller and his “potential” to be a front line starting pitcher at the big league level for a relatively low cost.  Miller was drafted in the 1st round by St. Louis in the 2009 MLB Draft out of high school.  Thought to be unsignable, the Birds convinced Miller to forego his scholarship with Texas A&M and join the organization.  Miller showed flashes of success while rocketing through the minors, although he didn encounter some speed bumps along the way.  For example, Miller was suspended for the end of a minor league season and sent home.   Miller was rated as high the the #5 prospect in the entire Major Leagues before the 2012 season by MLB.com  The Cardinals never viewed Miller as a potential front of the rotation starter, sitting him out for the entire 2013 Post-season save 1 meaningless appearance against Pittsburgh in the NLDS.  Miller voiced his frustration with the move directly and indirectly though passive-aggressive comments to the local and national media during the following off season.  Through 370 IP, Miller owns an ERA+ of 111, 2.33 K/BB ratio, 3.3 BB/9 IP and a 26-18 record.  The peripheral stats by the sabermetricians suggest that Miler’s numbers are trending down this year, and the fact that he was on a good defensive team and pitched for a good organization masked his issues.  Miller surrendered an unsustainable BABIP of a astoundingly low .259 Miler’s 2014 WHIP of 1.23 is right on line with his career mark.  Miller’s FIP of 4.54 indicates that he substantially benefited from a strong team defense.  FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching and indicates the ability of the pitcher alone to limit base runners, regardless of defense.  The expansive space between Miller’s ERA of 3.74 and his FIP of 4.54 would suggest that if he gets less lucky moving forward and his BABIP regresses more to the mean, his ERA will rise significantly moving forward as well as his WHIP runs allowed per nine innings (RA/9).

I see Miller as, at best, a good #3 starter for a good Major League staff.  I do not see his potential as high as some others think it is.  That doesn’t bean that Miller won’t turn into a legitimate front of the rotation guy, but the numbers and trends of those numbers lead me to believe that he will stay in that #3 or #4 slot for years to come.  We hear the term “under control” and think that Miller is going to be extremely cheap for a long time and that the Cardinals are missing the boat with Miller and unnecessarily gambling on Jason Heyward falling in love with St. Louis and the BFIB coaxing him into staying in the Arch City like Matt Holliday, after being traded to the club. We will look at Heyward in a second, but let’s put a bow on Miller, for now. Miller is arbitration eligible in 2016 and will be an extreme gamble when he signs a long-term extension to buy out his remaining arbitration years and a year or two of free agency by Atlanta so that the franchise can have cost certainty moving forward.  Miller will be evaluated based on his potential and what he could bring to the table.

Final analysis:  Miller will be a solid #3 SP for Atlanta for a long time.  His walk rate is extremely troubling and he will require a high price tag sooner than most people realize.

Jason Heyward was touted as a bigger deal than Mike Trout.  Heyward caught the intial first pitch of the 2010 MLB Season from Hank Aaron and promptly high a HR that went 400 feet plus in his 1st game in the Bigs.  Analysts salivated at the prospect of the rare combination of speed, power, arm strength, hitting for average and defense (5 Tool Player) and extrapolated the career of Heyward giving him a chance to hit the most HRs ever in the game’s history.  Correct, hit more HRs than Hank Aaron before he even saw a pitch.  Ridiculous expectations.  Heyward, obviously, has come no where close to the prognostications of yesteryear and the prodigious power that he would display.  Heyward has just 84 HRs through five full seasons.  Offensively, he is above average, but not that far so.  His career OPS+ of 114 and 63 steals do not exactly, if at all, wow you into thinking that a change of scenery will instigate a career offensive resurgence. Heyward doesn’t strike out an awful lot, but strikes out more than you would like given his career SLG of .429.

Defensivley, however, Heyward is an absolute beast.  He has a cannon and is a legitimate game-changer with his glove, arm and speed in the OF. He can play all three positions, with RF being his best as made obvious by his 2014 Rawlings Gold Glove award for the position.  Heyward’s dWAR or Defensive Wins Above replacement is a stagger 2.8, which is the top dWAR of any RF in baseball.  His arm negates opposing baserunners from attempting to take the extra base.  He can absolutely play CF in a pinch, and will routinely do so for the Cardinals next summer.  When factoring in all aspects of his game, Heyward posted a WAR of 6.4 in 2014, putting him exactly equal with MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen.  Didn’t see that coming, did you?

Final Analysis:  Heyward is a defensive superstar that can help offensively, but is not the power bat the Cardinals need to add more HRs in 2015, most likely.  He has the potential to hit more HRs, but we already discussed potential.

Jordan Walden is the wild card in this trade, and is a great candidate to pitch the 8th, or possibly the 9th, if incumbent closer Trevor Rosenthal struggles similarly to 2014.  Walden’s FIP of 2.79 and ERA+ of 127 are exciting and intriguing.  He had 32 saves in 2011 with the Angels and has experience at the back end of the bullpen.  He is not a free agent until 2017.  Walden has a career K/BB Ratio of 2.76 and WHIP of 1.23

Final Analysis:  Walden will thrive in the bullpen for the Cardinals in 2015 and add some much-needed insurance at the end of games for Manager Mike Matheny.  With a heavy fastball that touches 98, Walden will fit well with the other flame throwers in the STL Pen.

OVERALL ANALYSIS:  When the Cardinals extend newly acquired Jason Heyward before the season, fans and pundits will call it an overpay and an over reaction by the Birds.  We can’t get stuck on baseball card numbers and traditional offensive metrics.  Defense matters. Heyward will stabilize the OF defensively and strengthen and add depth to the lineup.  Walden will contribute out of the pen and the move allows Carlos Martinez to get an extended and actual look in the rotation.  Miller will immediately help Atlanta in 2015 and he will get an extension with the Braves.  It is a good trade for both sides.

In my opinion, the Cardinals have the money to spend and should do so on Jason Heyward.  I would tip the scales in the Cardinals favor immensely for the short term.  Heyward will hit in the 2-hole against righties and in the 7-hole against lefties.  I expect a slight uptick in his offensive numbers, but nothing drastic.  He will immediately be a fan favorite.  The Cardinals shook up the clubhouse, their OF defense and their bullpen in one fell swoop.  Good work.