Get it right, Rogues in Red. There are 15 games left. You face less than stellar opposition. What do the Cards do? They are sitting at a bar with a couple cars racing towards it right down the road. A season of up and down play has doomed any writer who dare make an attempt to forecast a conclusion to this madness.
The remaining 15 games for the Cards are Rockies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs and Diamondbacks.
Here are 10 vital points that could play a part in whether the Cards retain the division or not.
1.) Michael Wacha getting on track. That’s right. Can the 2013 stud regain his early season form and become a force in this rotation as the playoffs near? He gets the start Sunday and another one against the Reds, who beat him up this past week. I am divided on the Push Wacha mission. I worry about his 2015 health and whether he should be pitching in meaningful games in September with a rehabbing shoulder. Answers will come on Sunday. If he has another rough outing, the plug must be pulled.
UPDATE-Michael Wacha has been pulled from his Sunday start, citing bad mechanics in his bullpen session. Marco Gonzales will go instead. It seemed like a rush to push Wacha into full health during a pivotal stretch. He will sit this start out.
2.) John Lackey must return to his early Cardinal form. Lackey has been roughed up by the division foes lately. The Cubs, Brewers and Reds all gotten to him. In his last three starts, Lackey has allowed 10 earned runs in 14.1 innings. He only pitched 2+ innings on Wednesday, but handed a 2-0 lead away before he was ejected. Lackey gave up only 2 earned runs against the Cubs but hurt his own cause by throwing a ball down the first base line that led to a huge inning. He got battered in Milwaukee. After four solid starts in his first five outings, Lackey has sucked his last three. Which John takes the mound on Tuesday? The one that walks a few more than he should, gives up a lot of home runs or the one that eats innings, throws strikes and is reliable? Hard to tell after the last three. He needs to be a formidable arm or this rotation could weaken.
3.) Shelby Miller has to stay strong. He has turned into a different pitcher lately. He is striking out more batters, throwing less pitchers and pitching ahead in counts. For the first time in his career, Miller has pitched 7 innings, allowed 2 earned runs or less in three straight starts. He is maturing inside a month. The use of his newly developed sinker is helping. If he keeps it up, Miller will start a playoff game this winter. He is giving worth to the statement that it’s all about how you finish in this game.
4.) Mark Ellis doesn’t need to start games or get many at bats. He has been hurt most of the year or not gotten enough playing time. If he gets any more starts after tonight over Kolten Wong(2.3 WAR this year), something is very wrong with Mike Matheny‘s judgement.
5.) Jon Jay should start against lefthanders. All of them. Jay is 29-72(.403) this season versus LHP. Bourjos is 19-96(.198) against them. There are your splits Matheny.
6.) Adam Wainwright keeps mowing hitters down and making big impact starts. His complete game against Milwaukee on Sunday bolstered the Ace’s season and reminded folks what he is capable of. He starts tonight in a the launch of the final 2014 home stand.
7.) Matt Adams swinging a big stick. Jhonny Peralta can’t do it by himself. Adams must bring the power. Base hits are Jay and Matt Carpenter‘s job. Also, the big guy can draw a few more walks. Sluggers walk these days. It’s kind of a thing. Adams painfully expands his strike zone too many times. Adams has 21 walks to 105 strikeouts. Painful.
8.) Heat it back up Matt Holliday. When he swings a hot bat, the team seems to put together winning streaks. Where Holliday goes, the offense goes. Holliday has cooled down a bit after his torrid week. He has 5 hits in his last 23 at bats. Hopefully he can pick it back up at home.
9.) Mike Matheny’s bullpen choices. Just say no to Jason Motte and Justin Masterson until the division lead is 6 games or there is a 10-0 lead to work with. Matheny has to rely on relievers that have gotten him here. Seth Maness, Trevor Rosenthal, Sam Freeman, Carlos Martinez and Pat Neshek. The need for rehab projects is over.
10.) Beat up on the lesser teams. The combined record for the Cards opposition for the rest of the season is 328-404. Colorado and Arizona have matching 59-87 records. The Cubs are slightly better. The Reds are below average and the Brewers are struggling to remain above water.
In a nutshell, the Cards carry their own torch. If they don’t win the division, they will have no one to blame but themselves. Clayton Kershaw doesn’t face them down right now. Jorge De La Rosa does. The schedule is tailored made if the Cards take care of business. The tail of the tape won’t be hard to read if the Cards blow this.
They have played their division strong all season. Nine of the remaining fifteen games come against their own division. As long as the ten things stated above are followed as closely as possible, all should be well. Right? No. Expect little to go as planned with the 2014 St. Louis Cardinals. They give and take.
Thanks for reading.
