What Do You Do With Wainwright Now?

You can spit shine Adam Wainwright’s start last night all you want but rough is rough. The good thing was the Cardinals offense bailed out their struggling ace like they weren’t able to do pre All Star break. Well, sort of, because Waino had three of the five runs drive in. It was nice to see another five run effort produced by the bats but it only covered another rough outing for the Cy Young candidate hurler.

I wrote with an optimistic stroke last week that Wainwright’s issues were behind him. I said his dead arm looked to be coming to an end and the return of Yadi and the flip of the calendar to September would heal his wounds. Too bad that didn’t happen.

Here was Waino’s line last night. He, Matheny, and everyone else inside that building will tell you it is not vintage Wainwright.

6 innings. 4 earned runs. 7 hits. 3 strikeouts. 1 walk. 100 pitches. Let’s go further…

Waino got the win and is 16-9 but his ERA has risen from 1.83 on July 12th to 2.69 after last night’s start. The ERA is still strong but it’s going up and could hit 3.00 before the end of the month. Adam Wainwright’s strikeouts are down. He struck out 7 Boston Red Sox on August 7th but his other 9 starts lately, he has only reached 5. That’s not Waino. He has walked more lately. He has given up more home runs. In his first 21 starts, Waino allowed 4 home runs. In his last 7 starts, he has allowed 6. That is not Waino.

Is the dead arm lingering? Is there something else? Is he coming down to earth? Did he bid Clayton Kershaw farewell and drop down a few levels? I won’t go that far yet but the time is coming close to when Mike Matheny and Derek Lilliquist have to stare real hard at their ace and be honest with each other. With the September callups coming in, is it time to shut Waino down for a few starts and let the young men run? Is it the right time to do that? Not so fast. Shutting down Waino and trying to fire him back up on September 25th or so may not work. Matheny seems to stay the course and let Waino figure this out. However, last night, it could have cost his team a win.

Once again, Waino carried this team for 4 months. He should have 18 or 19 wins right now. He allowed 2 earned runs or less in 18 starts up until late July. The bats did nothing for him. One could say the favor is being returned. However, this is not high school. A student picking another kid up for class because the favor was done for him weeks before doesn’t translate to the mound and this game. This is a results oriented business. Right now, Waino isn’t pitching like himself.

He looked like himself in the 6th inning last night. 1,2,3. Easy and fine. The seventh inning saw Starling Marte plant a baseball in Big Mac Land. It was the third horrible pitch and location of the night for Wainwright, who usually only makes one mistake per start. A right as rain Waino doesn’t allow that to happen. When Waino is on, a hard hit ball is treated like a flare. What? How? It can’t be but it is.

Yadi Molina has calming effect on pitchers and will help the entire staff adjust from a rough couple of months but even he can’t turn Waino into Wine here. Adam looked comfortable last night but comfortable doesn’t always equal efficiency.

Joe Strauss told InsideSTL 920AM here in the Lou this morning that he is seeing a similar dropoff with Waino as he did with Matt Morris. I won’t go that far. Morris won 22 games in 2001 and 17 in 2002 but slowly came apart over the next few seasons. His ERA rose from 3.12 in 2002 to 4.72 in 2004, where Morris also allowed 35 home runs. Morris was an inning horse until very late in his career with Pittsburgh, but I am not sure Waino is coming undone quite like that just yet.

He definitely isn’t right. I want to believe Wainwright when he says he is close. He did drive in three runs, and basically made 3 mistakes all night. Three horrible mistakes. Right now, the Cards must use their assets wisely. With Tyler Lyons and Carlos Martinez down in the pen, maybe it’s the right thing to rest Waino for a couple starts. Just two starts to see if rest can help his arm. However….it’s not that simple.

It would be easier if Justin Masterson didn’t completely flame out in his month of action.

It would be easier if Michael Wacha and Marco Gonzales weren’t tag teaming Thursday’s start in Milwaukee.

It would be easier if this weekend didn’t feature a big series against a free falling Brewers team.

What if Waino is close and comes out on Sunday and fires a gem? The odds are against it but the team still needs Waino to be himself and lead these men. It feels weird, great and quite odd to say Lance Lynn has been the Cardinals best starter the past four weeks but it’s true. With that being said, Lynn and John Lackey need help.

The timing isn’t right for a Waino shutdown. The Cards could deliver the knockout punch to the Pirates today and the Brewers this weekend. There could be serious separation come Monday in the National League Central Division.

Call me crazy, but I give Wainwright the start on Sunday in Milwaukee. Carlos Gomez won’t be there due to a wrist injury so the lineup is a little weaker. As long as Waino doesn’t throw a meatball to Aramis Rameriz, all could go well. At least, it could go better. There’s my plan. Like it, love it, or hate it. The timing doesn’t fit for a Waino shutdown. Matheny should have Lyons and Martinez ready to roll behind Waino on Sunday but right now, I stick with the ace. If the division lead grows considerably in two weeks, maybe then you give Waino a rest. For now, leave him in there.

Adam Wainwright is everything to this deepening yet young rotation. That is why you stick with him now. It’s September 3rd. The time to rest or skip starts may have passed. There are a little over 20 games left. The race to the finish has begun. Until Waino completely falls off the wagon, run with the big dog.

Thanks for reading,

Dan Buffa

Follow on Twitter, @buffa82