When the news broke today that Yadier Molina would be out 2-3 months, Cardinal Nation exploded with panic and fear. Beat writers, bloggers, columnists, and the Cardinal twitterverse flooded the internet with the news and their takes on how the Cardinals could possibly handle the loss of the most important player on this team.
After the panic and speculation of the afternoon, the Cardinals had a chance to let fans breathe a sigh of relief. A strong performance and series sweep of the division-rival Pirates would put the Cardinals just one game back of the Brewers headed into Milwaukee.
However, that was not going to happen, as the Cardinals lost a Shelby Miller start for the eighth time in his last 10 starts (H/T Neil Price). Miller continued his struggles going just 5 innings while giving up 4 earned runs on 5 hits and 4 walks.
More worrisome for Cardinal fans is the performance and impact of Tony Cruz on the game. As Mozeliak said this afternoon you can’t replace Molina, and they are just looking for a “stop-gap.” Mozeliak reiterated the team’s confidence in Cruz during his media session, but did not rule out going to get another catcher.
Cruz did not exactly set the world on fire in his first start of what is presumed to be many in the next few months.
At the plate, Cruz went 0-3 with a strikeout. Although Molina was having his worst year offensively since 2010, with the Cardinals anemic offense his production still needs to be replaced.
The more jarring difference was seen on the defensive side.
Fans were treated to a rare and unnerving sight almost immediately. McCutchen swiped second and third in the top of the first inning off the pairing of Cruz and Miller. Cruz added further fervor to the internet conversation when he allowed a passed ball in the sixth inning that allowed a Pirate run and set up another to score on a sac fly.
For a comparison, Molina only has two passed balls on the year and has thrown out 17 of 35 baserunners attempting to run on him. Not only is that a league-leading 48.6% clip, but the fear of his arm has caused by far the fewest attempts for any qualified catcher. Since he has become the regular catcher, the Cardinals have allowed 240 fewer stolen bases than the next closest team (H/T Buster Olney).
Beyond playing defense, the catcher’s responsibility is to run the defense. To get cliched, they must be a field general. It appeared that went a bit awry tonight. In the sixth inning with runners on second and third, Matt Carpenter made the heady play to let Edison Volquez’s bunt drop to try and turn a double play. Carpenter fired to second, but no one was there. Thankfully, Jay anticipated the throw, fielded it off a hop and beat Mercer to second. Because a wheel play was on (the reason Carpenter was even in position to field the bunt where it was), Peralta was at third base. It is possible Carpenter just had a brain cramp and thought Peralta was going be there or he didn’t know what the bunt coverage was. It is the catcher’s responsibility to make sure everyone is on the same page when it comes to coverages. Even if Carpenter didn’t know Peralta wasn’t there when he was fielding the ball, Cruz, who was close enough to touch him, should have been in his ear yelling “three.”
The final aspect that makes Molina so irreplaceable is his handling of the pitching staff. A catcher’s complete effect on pitching is hard to measure. Catcher’s era is the conventional stat (Yadi is second in the NL at 3.28), but it has been widely dismissed in the sabermetric community, including by gurus Bill James and Baseball Prospectus’ Keith Woolner. Despite a way to quantify his impact, baseball experts rave about Molina’s skill in this area. The good news is he will still be around the team to help game plan, one of the things he is most revered for. However, there is something calming about having him behind the plate every day that will undoubtedly be missed.
Admittedly, this is the world’s smallest sample size, but Cruz could have done himself and his GM some favors if he had a better performance tonight. The numbers and common sense say the Cardinals are fighting an uphill battle. Since 2011, the Redbirds are 275-203 when Yadi starts and 50-50 when he doesn’t (H/T Jerry Crasnick). Cruz could very well step up and stem the bleeding just enough to keep the Cards moving in the right direction, but I wouldn’t say I am confident because of all the things Molina does for this team.
On this roller coaster of a season, it appeared St. Louis had put things together and was on the climb to the top of the division, but I’m afraid our lap bars have unlocked and we are holding on for dear life as we go over the crest.
A little overdramatic? Probably.
In the rare good news about an injury the Cardinals have received, Joe Kelly will be back on the mound for the first time since April 16 on Friday. Kelly has said his hamstring has felt fine in his three rehab starts with Memphis. He will take on Gallardo and the Brewers in the first of three in Milwaukee.
(Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
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