“For The Birds”- 5 Needs and 5 Fixes

The St. Louis Cardinals are far from perfect.  Although nearly every fan base around Major League Baseball would love to be “just” 7 games over .500 at (43-36) and be on pace for a measly 88 wins, the Cardinals have set the bar ridiculously high, and must now pay the piper.  With injuries testing the perceived depth of the starting rotation, less-than-stellar starting pitching will more than likely expose a lineup in dire need of power, consistency and depth.  The Birds have displayed remarkable ability to plan for the future, but not forget about today.  With the rash of young players in the rotation, bullpen and in the immediate future plans offensively, the organization has a decision to make:  Stand pat and wait for development and health, or trade potential for proven, more expensive and older players.

Matt Adams has exploded back onto the scene since his recent trip to the DL with power and consistency.  Adams has a huge ceiling, but it is easily argued that he isn’t ready to be “the guy” at this point in his career.  Adams is not the only player on the 40-man that is young, willing and possibly able.  I am always in favor of getting proven players for potential, which is a spoiler of sorts.  Here are the five needs the Cardinals have, and the realistic (in my opinion) solutions.  Not all of these are players to be traded or acquired.

5.  Closer by Committee

Without getting all the way into it, I am not a big believer at all in having set in stone, clearly defined bullpen roles as an absolute rule.  Trevor Rosenthal (3.25 ERA, only a 2.3 K/BB, 1.28 WHIP)  has been much better of late, but should not be only used in the 9th when St. Louis is winning by 3 runs or less and it is a “save situation.”  Pat Neshek (0.88 ERA, 2.97 K/BB, 0.59 WHIP) has been tremendous since Opening Day.  If Kevin Siegrist can return and even be a shell of his former 2013 self, the bullpen issues won’t be issues at all.

Solution:  Neshek should, at this point, be at minimum splitting time with Rosenthal when the game is on the line.  The save statistic is out-dated, overblown and unnecessary.  Mike Matheny needs to look at the situation and hitter, not the scoreboard and box score possibilities.  Play the matchups in the 8th and 9th and let the chips fall where they may.  The #1 reason that I don’t like the dedicated closer:  if he pitches three straight games, he becomes “unavailable.”  That sends a terrible message, in my opinion, that the guy closing that possible 4th game is just a stop gap.  Pitchers only play to these roles because they are told that is what their role is on the team.  Rosenthal can go 2 innings on Tuesday if needed, because the combination of Siegrist, Neshek and the rest of the arms can close it out on Wednesday.  Get out of the 1980s and come into 2014.  We know better at this point.

4.  The Lynn Dilemma

The key to the season is wearing #31. It’s more possible this year than last, or the year before that.

Lance Lynn (8-5, 2.90 ERA and 1.24 WHIP) has been his best as a pro as of late.  Lynn is going deep into games, challenging hitters and using his fastball like several different pitches.  Lynn has possibly turned the proverbial corner, but the act has been seen before in his career.  Off to fast starts the last 2 seasons, Lynn has trailed off in the 2nd half of the season and been less than stellar, to say the least.  Matheny removed Lynn from the rotation late in the 2012 season.  Michael Wacha and (predictably) Jaime Garcia are on the DL.  Shelby Miller has had nagging injuries his last 2 starts.  Adam Wainwright skipped his turn last time through the rotation.  Joe Kelly has been hurt since before the NFL Draft.  Lynn’s health, mentally and physically, is the key to the Cardinals post-season run in 2014.  Lynn has to be counted on.

Solution:   If Lynn’s mentality and attacking style is displayed into July and August the way it was in May and so far in June, his 2nd half struggles will be a thing of the past.  Lately, Lynn has used his fastball like 2 different pitches, which leads me to believe he is starting to learn the craft.  On fastball counts (1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1), Lynn will run it up there at 93-94 and touch 95 a few times. When the count is more neutral (1-1, 2-2, 3-2, 1-2), he chooses precision and movement over velocity and will hover in the 88-91 range.  It’s a slight adjustment, yet noticeable and effective.  Tape a sign to Lance Lynn’s locker that says “Attack.  Attack.  Attack.” I and when Lynn stays aggressive, the Cardinals will add another top-tier arm for the duration of the season and for the foreseeable future.  By the way Lynn is going to be very expensive, very soon.  See:  Homer Bailey Contract.

3.  Set The Number at Eight

Tony La Russa drove fans and media in this town crazy for 16 years tinkering with lineups, defensive formations and even hitting the pitcher 8th for a stretch.  Part of being a great manager is knowing your personnel and maximizing that personnel.  Matheny has been more fortunate with the players he possesses in his arsenal, until this season.  Players need to stay fresh and stay locked in at the plate.  Stale bench players are worthless and embarrassing.  However, it is easy to over manage, especially when the team is struggling offensively.  In my opinion, Matheny has over managed in his 3rd season as the Cardinals manager.  2nd base and Center Field need to be declared sooner rather than later.  Kolten Wong is on the DL currently, but he and Mark Ellis have been essentially platooning for about a month.  Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos have been playing musical chairs all season.  Stop the insanity.

Solution:  Go with youth and future, if your roster stays the same.  However, my solution ito #3 in this list is found in #2.  Hint:  Spoiler.

2.  Power in the 2-hole

Constructing a lineup is essential to being a good baseball club.  The Cardinals are lacking in the 2-hole, but not because they don’t have a qualified candidate. Lineup depth is a huge issue.  As constituted, I don’t foresee this team getting and/or staying hot for an extended period of time.  Wong is still at least a year away from a consistency standpoint.  Oscar Taveras is mired in AAA, where he has nothing left to prove.  If St. Louis wants to win now, and have a chance to win another pennant and possibly another World Series, they have to make a trade for a more consistent lineup.  Nearly without exception, consistency means age and experience.  You can see where this is heading.

Stability, cost certainty and predictability.

Solution:  Trade:  Kolten Wong and Oscar Taveras to the Oakland Athletics for Josh Donaldson.  This may seem like an overpay to Cardinals fans, but Donaldson is a true MVP candidate in the American League for the 2nd straight season, is under team control until 2019 and you already know what you have.  He is also a candidate for an extension prior to arbitration and free agency. Donaldson gives you power in 2-hole, puts Carpenter back at 2nd base and allows Adams a chance to fully develop.  Essentially, this is a Taveras-for-Donaldson swap, being that Carpenter at 2nd is a wash for anything that Wong can be reasonable expected to produce.

1.  Future Considerations 

Today is important, but never lose focus of next week, next year and the next five years.  With Josh Donaldson at 3rd base for the next six years, St. Louis could essentially lock in their entire defensive infield for the next half decade and move on to developing a true center fielder and continuing to develop and draft great starting pitching.  Additionally, Donaldson is exceptional defensively and you get his true prime years for an absolute bargain since he is a late bloomer, in general.  Donaldson can also hit in the middle of the order if needed to spell Holliday or Adams, and Allen Craig can stay where he belongs-in the six hole.  It makes sense to get Donaldson defensively, offensively and contractually.

It’s not the popular thing in St. Louis, but I think this move makes the Cardinals viable for years to come, and it’s not a lot of hoping and wishing and projecting.  Certainty is great for business, and great for the fans.  But, let’s be realistic.  It’s not certainty, it’s a calculated gamble.

Brandt Dolce is the Host of “STL AM” on AM 590 The Man 6-10am, M-F. Follow:  @BrandtDolce