The Return Of Matt Adams Brings Decisions

You can’t get on twitter these days without hearing the words “trade”, “Allen Craig” and “Matt Adams” mesh into a single sentence. It’s unavoidable and with a team strapped with inconsistency near the middle of June, that’s normal chatter.

The question isn’t a bad one at all. When Matt Adams returns from a calf injury this weekend, a move will be made. If I had the bowtie on, I would send Randal Grichuk back down to Memphis to work on his swing and collect more at bats against Major League Pitching. He looks overmatched and doesn’t have a ton of minor league experience. Oscar Taveras has looked better than his stats say and if you read my fellow Cardinals writer Bob Netherton’s(@CardinalTales on Twitter) piece today about the kid, you will agree it’s best to leave the kid up here in the big leagues. However, the log jam won’t be fixed after that move.

Here’s the issue.

Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos are playing center field. Matt Holliday, who never seems to get a day off unless his back is tight, is in left. Oscar Taveras, Craig and Grichuk have patrolled right field. The interleague play is over for now. What do you do? How long does that arrangement last? The inevitable answer here is a trade will happen at some point this season. The Cardinals have too many outfielders and need to push a body out. This isn’t softball. Four guys can’t patrol the outfield. So let’s look at the obvious strokes.

My Preferred Scenario-Grichuk goes down and Adams is activated tomorrow. Oscar stays with the team.

This is the smart move for the moment. The Cards didn’t start the clock on the phenom for a two week exhibition. He has taken good at bats, made good contact and the hits will start to drop. Adams comes back and takes over first base, so where does Oscar play? He gives Holliday one day off each week in left field. Since he has logged 228 games in center field in the minors and doesn’t look fooled out there, Taveras 1-2 starts in center field. Unless Craig is killing the baseball, Oscar gets 2 starts in right field. Adams struggles against lefties, so when a crafty lefty is on the mound, sit Matt and start Craig at first base. These are young baseball players. They don’t have to play every day. With a team stocked with young talent, its best to mix it up in order to keep Oscar with the team.

What about Craig? Craig makes 2.75 million this year. He doesn’t have to start every day. Its obvious, even with his recent surge back to productivity, that pitchers have figured out how to restrict Craig’s lethal clutch bat. With some rest, Craig can let go of a little pressure and settle in even more. He has a ton of games in this league and Oscar does not. Craig is in the middle of a team friendly contract as well so there is no pressure to throw him out there every day.

How about Big City Matt Adams? Adams plays first base and only first base. He is still a developing hitter who is hitting .325 without a ton of power but he needs to play a little more than Craig. I say that because Craig is an established talent whom teams know about. Adams only had 275 at bats in 2013 and has been hurt. He has adjusted to the shift but it has taken away some of his power. He needs to play first base 5 days a week at least and build up potential trade value and have a chance to find his power. Also, he is hitting .325 and slugging .811 and that kind of bat can’t ride the bench that often. If Oscar plays twice in right field, Craig is still out there the other 4-5 days and on one of those days he is not, first base will be open.

That is a plan that could work if Mike Matheny and John Mozeliak see it that way. However, let’s say things don’t work out and who do you propose in a trade first?

Matt Adams slugged big time last year and is hitting for average this year while mixing in extra base hits for a .437 slugging percentage(better than Craig and Holliday). He is also a plus defender at first base. Adams is under team control for a few more seasons as well. He is the guy you may want to keep because he can play first base and hit home runs and get on base. His .184 with RISP isn’t great but most of the team hasn’t been effective there this year so don’t put too much into it. Think about it this way. Adams is getting on base and the hitters behind him aren’t doing much. In my mind, it’s hard to trade Adams even with his slowly developing reaction to breaking pitches and left-handed pitchers.

Craig has the friendly 5 year contract and can play two positions and has better power numbers than Adams. He has 6 home runs(second to Peralta) and leads the team in RBI. He had a great month of May. He can play first base and let Oscar patrol right field and give the kid a day and maybe let Matt Carpenter relax from third base anxiety and play first base if Adams leaves via trade. Craig is hitting  .248 and that is slowly on the rise but is his swing getting long? Can he pull it together and produce another solid season? Have pitchers figured him out this year? ESPN projects him to hit 15 HR and 81 RBI and hit .268 and strike out 120 times. That’s just a theory. How much value do you put in Craig today?

Do you trade Adams or Craig? A platoon at first would be ideal but that won’t happen so let’s brainstorm for a bit. In order to fully free up the outfield, trading Craig works best and you could get a solid return, like a bullpen arm or possibly a versatile veteran bench bat. Trading Adams frees up first base for Craig and settles Oscar into right field with Allen as a backup.

Right now, the move that makes the most sense to me is to hold onto both players and play them to their strengths. Keep Oscar out there and see how Adams comes into his power swing while Craig continues to purge 3rd year realities. If I had to choose today with no other options, I would choose moving Adams and keeping Craig because of his history and versatility. That decision is far from an easy one.  Each player has upside and neither is untouchable.

It is best to let these two play into July and see how their bats develop. Craig is a proven RBI guy who has struggled so far to find his dominant swing. People, please don’t forget that Adams mashed 17 home runs in less than 300 at bats and he is capable of power. He is a pull hitter adjusting to a shift in the early going of 2014. Will he change his approach when he returns? I doubt it and the Cards will be fine with it.

So many possibilities and the time will keep ticking away. The Cards would be wise to keep Oscar in place and work him into the lineup. Matheny can tinker like crazy and move the kid around. Craig and Adams can get more at bats to build their credibility and confidence.

Soon enough, sometime around July 25-30th, answers to trade rumors will start to settle in. For now, let the young guns run.

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