We have officially all heard the news. We know that Carp is out for at least the 2013 season. As we all dry our tears and pull up our big boy pants, it’s time to move on and look at who’s next. Who is going to be the man to take Carp’s coveted spot in the starting rotation? Wait a minute….who the heck is in the starting rotation?!
Looking at the rotation from last year, one would think the starting rotation would include Wainwright (assuming contract negotiations work out positively), Garcia (assuming that his arm is healed), Westbrook and Lynn. That leaves that fifth spot kind of up in the air. Who would be able to fill that spot? Well, depends on who you like. Rumor has it, here’s who you have to choose from: Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly. Let’s look at them all at a glance, shall we?
Up first, Mr. Shelby Miller. Yes, he had a bad start in the minors in 2012, including a 7.91 ERA for the month of June in Triple A Memphis. Not pretty. Got it. However, after the All-Star break, Shelby had a 2.91 ERA in 37 and 1/3 innings in August, bringing his record in 2012 in Memphis to 11-10 with a 4.74 ERA (although that’s not too hot, his last 10 games were 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA—bringing his average way down). He was called up to “The Show” (saying that makes me feel all “Bull Durham”-y) in September. While working relief—in 5 appearances out of the pen, he had a 2.50 ERA in seven and two-thirds innings. Shelby did start the final game of the regular season, against the Reds. He allowed one hit in six scoreless innings while striking out seven at the plate. He has been known for his high strike out rate, a 92-95 mph fastball, decent curveball, and low to mid 80s change up.
Next up is Trevor Rosenthal. Trevor pitched mostly in Double A ball in 2012. He went straight up to the majors in July from AA—Springfield (before going back down). While in AA, he had a 2.78 ERA in 94 innings pitched, while only allowing six dingers (that would be homeruns). His fastball is consistently in the mid to upper 90s, but as a reliever with the Cards, he commonly hit the triple digits with this pitch. He was 8-6 with 2.78 ERA while in Springfield and had 3 starts in AAA Memphis before being promoted for the remainder of the season in late August. He has been known to pitch mostly in the 6th/7th innings in relief. In the 2012 playoffs, he pitched for eight and two-thirds scoreless innings against the Nationals and Giants with 15 strikeouts and 2 walks.
Lastly, let’s take a look at Joe Kelly. Good ol’ Joe Kelly. I got to catch one of his first major league starts here in Kansas City. He looked pretty decent. He ended 2012 with appearances in 24 games, 16 of which were starts, his ERA 3.53 in 107 innings.
So, which do you go with? Looking at them on paper, they look pretty darn comparable. Kelly has had a lot more experience in “The Show”, but the other two have still had some exposure. Decisions, decisions.
Needless to say, I believe that although Carp is irreplaceable, you have to replace him. I found a great article that discussed how it would be imperative for Waino to get his contract signed and out of the way so he could take the reigns as mentor from Carp. The article discussed Darryl Kile who first mentored Woody Williams who mentored Carpenter who mentored Wainwright.
Question of the day: Who’s Wainwright going to mentor?
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Well, Carp and Westbrook were mentoring Rosenthal this offseason. Carp & Rosie were workout buddies, while Westie had Rosie and his family move into the Westbrook household. And, I have a sneaky suspicion that Carp will be around the Cardinals dugout in 2013. Good ol’ Tony LaRussa has also commented on St. Louis radio that Waino has been a leader on the Cardinals for a couple years now.
As to who should take that 5th rotation spot. Let their play decide, or rotate them around, or have them each pitch 3 innings a game. I don’t care, just use them! I also would probably prefer the other 2 not to go down to AAA to get innings. Put them in the bullpen, have them strike fools out, make spot starts and fill-in when the inevitable injury happens.
Miller is the most highly touted of the 3, and most scouts (and SABR folks!) think that he is a front-of-the-rotation type of fella. Apparently, he fell in love with his fastball and weirdly lost weight over last offseason. His mechanics suffered and pretty much all of his pitches flattened out, home runs (an arguably unlucky amount) followed. He was also having trouble with “coachability”. But at some point the lightbulb flashed on and he got his stuff together, and he rolled through the 2nd half of the season. The dude can pitch.
I developed a total mancrush on Rosie during the playoffs. I was at Game 2 of the NLDS and the crowd made a collective “OOOH” sound a couple of times when he hit the 100s. He probably needs to develop of reliable offspeed pitch to accompany his electric fastball and above-average breaking stuff.
Joe Kelly was probably called up before he was ready, but he took his lumps and was a much-improved pitcher at the end of the year. His sinker can be a real weapon, if he can locate his other pitches (mainly his fastball). He was still a serviceable back-of-the-rotation guy last year, and this year, I expect he should get better.
I think Miller’s going to be the best of the three. I also think that all of them are going to eventually be stalwarts of the Cardinals future rotations.
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