My personal insight and opinions on what is going to happen in one of the tightest divisions in baseball in 2020. (Keep an eye out for my full predictions for every team before opening day!)
Pittsburgh Pirates
I do not believe I will get much of an argument from anyone with my analysis that the Pirates are the weakest team in the division. That being said, I think there is a lot too look forward to if you are a Pirates fan, and I do not see them in the same negative light as others. Looking at the Pirates lineup, there are a lot of fun pieces, even after losing Starling Marte to the Diamondbacks.
Kevin Newman is coming off a strong debut season looking to prove that he can be one of the better contact hitters in the league on a consistent basis. Josh Bell showed last year that if the Pirates are successful, he can be an MVP candidate. Gregory Polanco is a 5 tool player that is fun to watch when he can stay on the field and healthy. Maybe the most exciting thing to look forward too if you are a Pirates fan is who many people are calling the future of the franchise. Ke’Bryan Hayes is looking to have a significant role on the team in 2020, and watching him develop with his exceptional defense and exciting bat should bring some joy to Pirates fans in an otherwise bleak season.
The reason the season will be bleak: pitching. While the Pirates added some veterans like Derek Holland to the staff for the 2020 season, the pitching staff is looking like one that will struggle. Chris Archer needs to show some kind of improvement after a miserable 2019 that solidified how disastrous the trade was in 2018 that brought him to Pittsburgh. Watching Archer struggle, and Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows be key pieces for the Rays playoff run must have made Pirates fans sick. Joe Musgrove showed small glimpses that he could be a good starting pitcher, but needs to work on stringing together good starts so that he can be a major part of their rotation moving towards the future.
Prediction: The Pirates coming in last is a pretty safe bet. However, with Ben Cherington in the GM seat, it will be interesting to see what kind of moves he makes to prepare the Pirates for a better future, while trying to reconcile the multiple mistakes the old Pirates front office made countless times in previous years.
Chicago Cubs
Everyone’s favorite, the team from the Windy City. I am going to start it off by saying something that everybody reading this article wants to hear. I think that the Cubs are the fourth best team in the division. Now, saying something no one wants to hear: the Cubs also have enough talent to win the division. There is no denying that if everyone stays healthy and plays up to their potential, the Cubs have the best lineup in the division. Kris Bryant can be an MVP any given year, Baez can be competing for it with him. Wilson Contreras can hit as good as most catchers in the league, and Ian Happ is still a threat to become the star prospect he was once considered. Anthony Rizzo could be playing with a chip on his shoulder after the Cubs did not put much effort in to signing him to the extension that he wanted in the off season.
David Ross is an interesting hire for manager that right now is hard to judge. It could look like yet another genius decision for Theo Epstein and the Cubs organization, or it could not work at all and the season could go down in flames. Former catchers tend to make good big league managers, and Ross being former teammates with most of the players during the world series run may go great and give the clubhouse the fun, loose energy they had when they went on to win that championship. However, a reason Maddon was let go was the fact he may not have been able to put his foot down, and the team struggled. The fact that the players may be buddies with Ross foreshadows that this could happen again. Theo Epstein said today that they will be”objective” at the deadline. If Ross can’t get the team going in the first half and the division is as competitive as expected, the Cubs may not be afraid to start selling some of their veteran contracts and rebuilding their depleted farm system.
I think that the part of the team that has the most question marks for the Cubs is their pitching. Both the starting rotation and bullpen has talent, but lots of questions to answer after struggling last year. Yu Darvish showed as the year went on last season that he could return to the dominant ace that he was for the Rangers. Unfortunately for them, he has not been good as a Cub. If Darvish can be the ace for the full season that the Cubs are paying him to be, then with the help of Lester and Hendricks having solid seasons again, that will be the variable that pushes the Cubs to win the division once again.
Prediction: The Cubs come in 4th. While I do not think they will be far out of the race, Darvish has not shown he can be the consistent ace they need, Lester is aging, and their lineup has been plagued by streaky hitting and injuries in past years. I do not think they will have the perfect luck they need to win the division, and will possibly sell some big pieces at the deadline.
Milwaukee Brewers
I am writing this on the heels of the news that the Brewers signed Christian Yelich to a monster extension that will keep him in Wisconsin for the next 9 years. The Brewers are looking for Yelich to lead this talented team to the top of the division. The Brewers lost a TON of talent in Mike Moustakas, Eric Thames, Yasmani Grandal, and Trent Grisham. That being said, they did a decent job of reloading while being under the constraints of playing in a smaller market. Avisail Garcia is a good addition who has some pop in his bat, they added top prospect Luis Urias even though he is injured with a broken hamate bone. Orlando Arcia showed much improvement at the plate last year, and is off to a monster start in Spring so far, which would be a huge boost to the lineup. Keston Hiura is looking to improve in the field, and build on a monster rookie year at the plate so that he can protect Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the lineup.
The starting pitching for the Brewers is definitely their biggest weakness. They have some new faces in it this year with Adrian Houser moving to full time starter, along with Josh Lindblom and Eric Lauer. For success, the Brewers will need all three of them to be solid, while Brandon Woodruff stays healthy and builds on being very good last year.
Where the Brewers look to have an advantage over everyone is their bullpen. Josh Hader is looking to be one of the best relievers in baseball once again, while they will also get a huge boost from getting Corey Knebel back around May from Tommy John. The bullpens ability to shorten games will help the Brewers fight for first for the 2020 season.
Prediction: The Brewers will come in Third due to inconsistent starting pitching, and their dominant bullpen getting tired from being overworked due to short starts. Yelich will be vying for yet another MVP, but it may not be enough to carry the Brewers into the playoffs.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are the most intriguing team in the division for me, and if I was not a Cardinals fan and I was unbiased, I would possibly say that they have the best chance to win the division. Now there is a big difference between being a good team on paper, and a good team on the field. But on paper, the Reds are VERY good.
The lineup has a lot to like about it, and even creates the problem of having too many outfielders. Nick Senzel, Nicholas Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Aristides Aquino, Jesse Winker and Phillip Ervin all aim to be getting a good look at starting in the outfield this year. All of these players have either performed in the major leagues at a high level before (Castellanos) or have the potential to be a very good player in the league. Last year, Eugenio Suarez played at an MVP level and looks to repeat this year. Mike Moustakas was a big pickup from the division rival Brewers and adds a powerful lefty bat into the lineup. Joey Votto was not good last year, but will have a good chance to rebound with much less pressure being on him to be the main producer in the offense.
The starting pitching for the Reds may be even better than their lineup. Their are very few top 3’s in a rotation in baseball that can match-up to Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, and Sonny Gray. They also have a solid back two guys with Anthony Desclafani and Wade Miley.
The Reds also have a bullpen that looks to be solid with a good closer in Rasiel Iglesias and dominant lefty Amir Garrett. Pedro Strop is inconsistent but adds some depth next to Michael Lorenzen.
Prediction: The Reds will come in 2nd, but have as good a shot as anyone at winning the division title and bringing playoffs back to Cincinnati.
St. Louis Cardinals
Now finally, our beloved Cardinals. They are looking to repeat as division champions after surprising most people and winning last year. This will be hard for the Cardinals as they lost their clean-up hitter and did absolutely nothing to replace that production. They are trying to replace Marcel Ozuna with either Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas, Austin Dean, or some combination of these players. Dexter Fowler and Harrison Bader seems to be the starters no matter what, even with sub-par production from the plate in 2019. They could still have a solid middle of the lineup with Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong, and a bounce back year from Matt Carpenter. Kolten Wong looks to be the dynamic hitter and base runner he was last year to set the tone for the rest of the team.
The pitching for the Cardinals looks to be their main strength as usual for this year. However, injuries to pitching seem to be the story of Spring Training so far. Miles Mikolas, Andrew Miller, KK Kim, and recovering Jordan Hicks are all dealing with injuries of some kind (Hicks going back to Tommy John surgery from last year).
Even with that, the Cardinals return their full bullpen from last year, along with new young arms that were hurt or not in the majors yet like Alex Reyes, Austin Gomber, and Kodi Whitley. Between the good starting rotation and the strong bullpen, the Cardinals keys to success will be getting great pitching while looking to hit consistently without going on team wide slumps as we saw last year.
Prediction: The Cardinals will win the division after Carlos Martinez joins the rotation again and returns the the form he previously had as a starter, while Matt Carpenter and his re-tooled swing ignite the offense.
