Marco Gonzales Struggles Again

After struggling for the second straight start, Marco Gonzales has become less of an answer to the Cardinals revolving door of a rotation and more of just another question mark.

In the run up to Gonzales’ first start last Wednesday there was a buzz through Cardinal Nation. People were wondering if the 22-year-old lefty would be the next Michael Wacha. If you looked at Gonzales on paper, this was not an utterly ridiculous hope.

Gonzales was drafted 19th overall, like Wacha, and was touted as the best left-handed pitching prospect in the 2013 draft and the pitcher most likely to contribute first to a major league team.

He lived up to the hype in minor league ball. In seven starts for AA Springfield, Gonzales posted a 2.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a ridiculous 10.8 K/9– higher than even his best K/9 in college.

With a stat line like that I can excuse panicking Cardinals fans for hoping he was going to ride into town and be this year’s Wacha. However, once you look past the stat line and see him on the field it is quite obvious it was not to be.

Unlike Wacha, Gonzales has to rely on deception and location to get batters out. Gonzales’ top end 90 MPH fastball isn’t gonna blow past major league hitters. Gonzales’ repertoire also includes a “plus” changeup and an average curveball.

Although we may forget sometimes because we see fireball throwers so much now, a crafty fastball, changeup pitcher can be successful, as Hall of Fame inductee Greg Maddux can attest. Their margin of error is just smaller, and Gonzales has learned that the hard way in his first two big league starts.

In his one week with the Cardinals, Gonzales has posted a 9.64 ERA, 2.14 WHIP, and just a 4.9 K/9.

In postgame interviews Tuesday night Gonzales and Matheny simply pointed to missing some spots and catching too much of the plate up in the zone as the causes for the offensive downpour from opponents in his two starts. However, there are some statistics that point to a more troubling problem.

A K/9 that has been cut in half would suggest a pitcher is getting less swings and misses and is fooling less batters. When the Rockies and Giants have gotten to Gonzales would also back up this assertion.

The first time through the lineup hitters have gone a combined 1-16 (.062)  at the plate with two walks. After that,  it’s a different story.  The second time at bat and after, opposing batters have gone 13-25 (.520) with 2 HR, 7 extra base hits, and 4 walks for a total of 10 earned runs.

In his major league debut in Colorado, Gonzales sat down the first seven batters he faced and struck out three. However, in the fourth inning Drew Stubbs led off with a home run, as the Rockies hung a 5-run inning on the Fort Collins, Co. native. He would end up leaving after the fifth in line for the loss, but the Cardinals rallied to win the game 9-6.

Gonzales’ second start went the way of the first. He started off holding the Giants to just one hit and did not allow a runner to reach second the first time through the lineup. However when it turned over, things went wrong again. The Giants put up their own 5 -run fourth inning punctuated by a 3-Run home run by Pablo Sandoval.  This time Gonzales would not make it out of the fifth inning and the Cards fell 5-0.

The most telling moment of his current inability to fool hitters is the showdown he had with opposing pitcher Tim Lincecum.  Lincecum, who boasts a Ted Williams-esque .115 lifetime batting average, had perhaps the best at bat of his career against the rookie. It took 11 pitches for Gonzales to finally get the ground out from his fellow pitcher.

Now, Gonzales’ problem could be as simple as tipping his pitches with a different release point with the change up or some other tell which could be easily fixed. The scary and career-threatening reason for these fourth inning blowups would be if he simply does not have the stuff to get major league hitters out consistently.

Gonzales and the Cardinals will get at least one more start to figure it out at the big league level, as Joe Kelly will need at least one more rehab start as he comes back from a hamstring injury.

Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images/ DenverPost.com

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